Italian Open 2026 Rome Draw Preview and Analysis: ATP, WTA Internazionali BNL d’Italia
Not having Carlos Alcaraz in the 2026 Rome draw preview and analysis takes a bit of fun out the the ATP Internazionali BNL d’Italia, but at least Novak Djokovic is here to rival the gilded Jannik Sinner. In addition, a handful of young players are starting to sneak up the rankings.
After the outlier conditions of Madrid, Rome brings us back to sea level, more in line with what players will encounter at Roland Garros later this month. That makes the Italian Open the optimal warm-up tournament.
To the 2026 Rome draw preview and analysis.
Sinner Rome: What His Draw Looks Like
The biggest challenge the Italian faces is fatigue. He might have opted to skip Madrid, but Sinner chose to grind through the 2-week event. Now he faces another long Masters, and sitting this one out really wasn’t on the table in his home country. Sinner has won the past 5 Masters. If there’s not an opening in this tournament for someone other than Sinner to win, wear-and-tear dictates there might be in Paris. File that away.
After a few clay n’er-do-wells, Sinner might face fellow Italian Matteo Berrettini, who at 30 years old, is still trying to claw his way back to top form. He’s been playing a mix of challengers and tour level events. Berrettini has lost to Hubert Hurkacz and Joao Fonseca recently. At the moment, he seems to lack the confidence that would be required for an upset of this magnitude. In fact he might not get past Jakub Mensik. I think Sinner handles either of those players in straights.
From there I envision a re-match with Fils, who said last week “great tennis isn’t enough” to beat Sinner. Translation: You need luck, too. After getting through that, Sinner could face either Andrey Rublev or Ben Shelton. Rome is a good test for where Ben stands with his dirt game. He’s 2-0 vs Rublev, but both wins were on hard court. This is where the lefty kick serve comes in handy, but has Shelton developed the patience required for a deep run on clay? He won in Munich this year, but a Masters 1000 field is next-level grind. I give the clay vet Rublev the edge in 3.
Rome 2026: Felix Auger Aliassime
The likeable Canadian’s winning percentage on clay (54%) significantly trails his success rate on the other surfaces. He gets by with respectability, but don’t expect too much. I like a potential Round of 32 match with Fonseca. They’ve never met. Joao is quietly building toward a solid clay campaign. Based on the Brazilian’s combo of offense and defense off the ground, I’d like his chances there.
Other interesting names in this section include Valentin Vacherot and Italian Flavio Cobolli, who I think might get tight in his home country, due to some admitted recent mental health struggles. This could be the time for a Fonseca semifinal run.
Also of note in this section: a possible Round of 64 matchup between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev– not the best of friends and both riding career roller coasters. Stef is suddenly playing better, but I give Clayvedev the edge who seems more settled with his baseline game at the moment.
Novak Djokovic Rome 2026
Having Djokovic in Rome adds some extra special sauce to the Foro Italico. I like his draw because it includes a cadre of players who are known for their serving ability– which is like bringing soy sauce to an Italian restaurant. It’s alright, but you don’t need it. Novak can handle Karen Khachanov, Arthur Rinderknech, Ugo Humbert and the like.
Things get twisty with a possible quarterfinal match-up vs Lorenzo Musetti. Let’s pick apart what this might look like. Djokovic’s 10-1 H2H has included 2 notorious Musetti retirements. Early this year at the Australian Open, Musetti was leading Djokovic by 2 sets when he was injured. Novak famously went on to knock off Sinner in the semis. The Italian’s only win against Djokovic was on clay in Monte Carlo 3 years ago. Novak has an exceptional skill for harming players with one-handed backhands. Plus he’s fresher. Djokovic until proven otherwise.
Alexander Zverev Prediction: Rome Draw Preview and Analysis
After losing to Sinner in last week’s Madrid final, Zverev said, “right now, I’m exhausted.” Jet lag, a mix of match start times and the grind of clay has the German running on fumes. I see an upset here as he tries to regroup for Roland Garros. The question is to whom?
Tommy Paul plays very well in Rome, with a pair of semifinal trips in the past two years. After an early exit in Madrid, he’s rested. He’s had time to get over losing match points to an epic against Fils in Miami. Is he focused enough right now to handle players he normally does like Luciano Darderi and Alexander Bublik? I’m not sure where his head is at. The top of this bracket could see an amazing tilt between rising star Rafael Jodar and Alex De Minaur on Demon’s worst surface. I have De Minaur in that one– barely. This is all doable for Tommy– if he’s healthy and free of distraction.
My players to watch coming through:
QF: Sinner, Fonseca, Djokovic, Paul
SF: Sinner, Djokovic
F: Sinner
2026 Rome draw preview and analysis: WTA ATP Internazionali BNL d’Italia
World number 1 Aryna Sabalenka has never won Rome. Could this be the year? While I think she’ll make it to the semifinals, I’m not sure she’s had enough reps on the dirt in her 2026 clay campaign to pick her just yet. I’d be more apt to favor her at Roland Garros after a solid showing in Roma. My dark horse to face Aryna in the quarters is Cristina Bucsa, a crafty Spanish player (by way of Moldova) who plays pristine defense.
Also in this half of the Rome draw preview, Coco Gauff, who lost to Jasmine Paolini in last year’s Rome final, has quietly tamed her double fault problem. Is anyone paying attention to that? In this section, Mirra Andreeva is out of gas after a heartbreaking loss in Madrid, and I believe Paolini will feel pressure to repeat.
The top half of the other side of the 2026 Rome WTA draw holds a pair of gems if they happen. Jessica Pegula could face Karolina Muchova in the Round of 16, and Naomi Osaka might meet Iga Swiatek in a re-match of their 2024 RG classic. I like Iga in that one because Osaka is a mental dip at the moment. If Jessie meets Karolina, I pick Muchova because of her track record and comfort on clay, as well as her shape on the ball. Muchova would then have to believe she can beat Iga on clay, and I’m not sure she has that in 2026. Swiatek retired from Madrid with an illness, but she should be fresh for one of her favorite tournaments. Iga clay redemption story: loading.
For me, the final quarter of this Rome draw preview comes down to a pair of WTA superstars: Elina Svitolina and Elena Rybakina. The Ukrainian doesn’t quit, and Rybakina has won Rome before. Tough call there. Rybakina leads the H2H 4-3 over Svitolina. They each have victories over the other on clay. Both are in fine form at the moment. I lean toward Rybakina based solely on success in Rome, but I don’t feel good about it.
My players to watch coming through:
QF: Sabalenka, Gauff, Swiatek, Rybakina
SF: Gauff, Swiatek
F: Swiatek
