2025 Rome Draw Preview and Analysis
World number one Jannik Sinner returns to the ATP Tour in the Rome 2025 draw preview and analysis, and the Italian has been handed a painful draw. Injury-troubled Carlos Alcaraz sits on the opposite side, and Aryna Sabalenka looks to continue her crushing dominance with a WTA Dirtball Double.
After serving a three-month suspension for an accidental doping violation, the Rome crowd will be friendly to the Italian Sinner. With a shockingly good 71% win percentage on clay, he’s quickly a factor in the 2025 Rome draw preview.
Winning the Madrid-Rome double is a tough task. On the ATP, only Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic have done it. Iga Swiatek, Dinara Safina and Serena Williams have completed the WTA Dirtball Double. Generally players who enjoy deep runs in Madrid don’t tend to have the same success in Rome. But a short run in Madrid can tee players up just enough for a strong showing in Rome. Keep that in mind.
To the 2025 Internazionali BNL d’Italia draw preview and analysis:
Sinner Quarter
Let’s get right to it. No one outside of Sinner’s inner circle can tell you precisely what he did with his three months off. We know he trained, he skied and he attended to his mental health. Sinner may or may not have a new girlfriend. But is he in the match-fit shape required to grind on clay, especially in a section that is filled with demanding, physical athletes? That’s really the operative question. It’s unknowable until we see him play.
I hope Sinner truly has kept up his training because he’ll need it. Standouts in his section include energizer bunny Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and in-form Francisco Cerundolo. Fellow Italian and training partner Matteo Berrettini could be a factor if he’s healthy, and Madrid champion Casper Ruud anchors the bottom of the quarter. Throw in Nicolas Jarry, who made the finals here last year. Chances are Sinner will face one or more of these marauding clay court pirates.
A few shots at the dartboard here. Firstly, we know from prior comments that Sinner is incredibly disciplined. He probably did train hard, made himself available as a hitting partner to the tour’s elite and maybe took the opportunity to sharpen skills like volleys and drop shots. So it’s possible an even better Sinner could emerge, which is scary for his opponents. Secondly, those who have played tennis competitively understand a certain paradox when it comes to time off. You don’t necessarily think you need it when it’s forced upon you, but in retrospect it can feel like a shot of fresh air when you return. It occurs to you how badly you did need the break after all. Any small injuries will have healed. The mind will have rebooted itself. If I had to guess, this is how I think Sinner might feel. I expect his toughest tests to be Foki and Cerundolo. Berrettini is injured, and Ruud is tired.
But I think Sinner’s run could end in the later stages of the tournament when his mind and body aren’t quite honed enough for the tour’s elite and the attention exhausts him. Roland Garros will be a different story. I will analyze that bridge when we come to it.
Rome 2025 Draw Preview and Analysis: Taylor Fritz Quarter
Quarter two is an exceptionally compelling part of this Rome draw. Fritz has been battling an abdominal injury. No shame in losing to Ruud in Madrid, but his serve won’t do as much damage in Rome. The Eternal City exposes slower movers. Jakub Mesnik, who has a similar build to Fritz and is an excellent mover, will also find that his serve doesn’t quite get the juice he wants. That said, I’m slowly starting to move Mensik into the category of threat to win anywhere.
This quarter could feature a rematch of the Australian Open coming out party for Joao Fonseca when he faced Andrey Rublev. Fonseca has been riding the typical ups and downs of a tour freshman. Rublev’s 6-5 Rome record doesn’t bowl me over. I think with some confidence on clay and a Brazilian fanbase that follows him wherever he roams, Fonseca could grab this one. From a matchup standpoint, the slow clay of Rome allows Joao to really load up the forehand. The trajectory of Rublev’s groundies does nothing special here. Serve and return are a wash between these two at the moment.
The bottom part of the quarter features two of the tour’s finest movers, Tommy Paul and Alex De Minaur. It’s another kryptonite situation here, with Alex owning the h2h 5-0. I see a Fonseca vs. Demon re-match of Miami with Alex getting the better based on the physical fitness Rome demands.
Carlos Alcaraz Quarter: 2025 Rome Draw Preview and Analysis
Tennis’ top showman has played Rome only once, losing in the round of 32. Hard to believe. Alcaraz has been given a favorable draw, but two factors work against him in my mind. Firstly, he’s battling hip injuries. Secondly, he might play more carefully with Roland Garros in sight.
One thing about this section is fairly clear to me. I don’t anticipate Jack Draper to have a stellar run. Rome is not the kind of clay that favors his big serve. He’s just completed an exhausting run in Madrid where he lost a heartbreaker to Ruud in the final. He had two crucial lulls in that match. Firstly, he got tight when attempting to serve for the first set and ultimately lost. In the 3rd set, he made a mental error with his second time violation, and I think it was an example of how he was fatigued late in the match. Don’t get me wrong– I think Draper’s status has risen to elite, but Rome isn’t the place just now.
That leaves the next-best superstar in this quarter: Holger Rune. The Dane’s record in Rome is 6-2 with a run to the final in 2023. I think conditions can be similar to Barcelona where he just won. Rune’s big kick serve and adept sliding ability should compliment him in Rome.
Italian Open 2025: Zverev Quarter
Alexander Zverev’s form has been elusive. A clay victory in his home country a few weeks ago didn’t translate to Madrid, where he lost in straight sets to Cerundolo. There’s a hitch for Sasha here. He could meet Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Round of 32. Not only does Stef have a 10-6 record against Zverev, but the Greek bests him 5-1 on clay. So that’s not favorable for Zverev.
The top of this last quarter features in-form Lorenzo Musetti and everyone’s favorite mention, 2023 Rome Champion Daniil Medvedev. The h2h there is 2-0 to Meddy, but both meetings were on hard court. If this match happens, it’s the toughest call of any contest in the entire draw. You’d tend to give Musetti the edge because he’s Italian, but Daniil loves nothing more than a belligerent crowd. It would probably be a rowdy night match. I’m going to very reluctantly give Meddy the edge in a tight 3 sets due to his topnotch scouting and understanding of return positions. But it hurts to make this call.
Then I see an equally tense potential tussle between Tsitsipas and Medvedev with a more settled Stefanos emerging.
My players to watch:
QF: Sinner, DeMinaur, Rune, Tsitsipas
SF: Sinner, Rune
F: Rune
Rome 2025 Draw Preview and Analysis: WTA
On the usually more unpredictable WTA Tour, supremacy has coalesced around world number one Aryna Sabalenka. The major questions surround whether Sabalenka can continue her power trip on her worst surface. And can Iga Swiatek get back to winning tournaments on her best surface?
In Sabalenka’s quarter, former Rome champion Elena Rybakina and Qinwen Zheng stand as high seeds. Neither are in top form. I don’t see anyone terribly obvious who can knock off Sabalenka right now. Maybe Daria Kasatkina on a redline day.
In quarter two, I see veteran Ekaterina Alexandrova over Emma Raducanu in a potential meeting, but Amanda Anisimova could beat a weary winner there. Coco Gauff, despite a long and arduous run in Madrid, can make the semifinals if she’s true to her newfound form. Also in this quarter, we’ll see the clay court chops of Emma Navarro and Mirra Andreeva. If they meet, I give the slightest edge to Navarro on fitness alone. The winner could face Gauff, and I like Coco’s chances if she puts her second serve in play.
On the other side, hometown girl Jasmine Paolini headlines quarter three, and I like Jazzy’s high-energy game in Rome. A potential meeting between Jelena Ostapenko and Karolina Muchova could be an electric night match. If Muchova is finally healthy, I give her the edge if she can bait Jelena into forehand errors.
Finally, Swiatek has a challenging draw. The 2021, 2022 and 2024 champion could slay all the demons with a win here– one of her favorite courts. Players I like in this section include Elina Svitolina, Paula Badosa and Madison Keys, but Iga won’t have to beat them all.
My Players To Watch:
QF: Sabalenka, Gauff, Paolini, Swiatek
SF: Sabalenka, Swiatek
F: Swiatek
