2025 Madrid Open: Draw Preview and Analysis
A band of walking wounded feature in the 2025 Mutua Madrid Open draw preview and analysis, as ATP and WTA stars like Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Elena Rybakina carry question marks around their injury status.
Madrid demands an eclectic set of skills. Players need clay court prowess with sliding ability and topspin, but conditions can be similar to hard courts in that they favor servers. Because of Madrid’s altitude, fit players and those with control often excel.
Taller players, the aggressive and those with an all-court style generally enjoy the Mutua Madrid Open. Many consider this tournament to be the “clay season outlier” due to conditions unlike Monte Carlo, Rome and Roland Garros.
With all that in mind, let’s dive into the 2025 Madrid Open draw preview and analysis.
Zverev Quarter
Coming off a win in Munich, Alexander Zverev looks to finally be catching some form. A two-time champion in Madrid, Zverev’s game checks all the boxes to succeed here. Despite a minor complaint last week that his serve hasn’t been as stratospheric lately, it’s still among the best on tour.
Zverev has drawn a tough quarter. Francisco Cerundolo could meet him in the Round of 16. Sasha lost to Fran in Madrid last year and lost to him again in Buenos Aires this year. But with some confidence and a game plan to keep the ball in backhand-to-backhand rallies, I believe his serve and plus-one can solve this.
Elsewhere in this quarter, Miami Open champion Jakub Mensik and 2024 Madrid winner Andrey Rublev could challenge the German. Let’s watch how Mensik handles the winner of a potential Ben Shelton vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard match. All three of those guys bring the serving heat.
It’s a tough climb, but Zverev has so much experience here. With an astounding 23-5 record in Madrid, Sasha knows the drill.
2025 Madrid Open Draw Preview and Analysis: Fritz Quarter
Fritz is another player whose game suits the Caja Magica. He’s among the top servers in the sport. He plays with control, keeping his backhand cross court with a stubbornness that forces opponents to cough up errors. He can crush the forehand.
I would love to pick the 6’4” American to win Madrid. The problem is that he’s coming off an abdominal injury and hasn’t played since Miami. With thin air, players must be match-fit in Madrid. This is a difficult call because Fritz has a decent draw, with the also-banged-up Hubert Hurkacz in his sight line.
Holger Rune, who just won Barcelona, anchors this section as the 8-seed. Rune just won Barcelona. I am skittish about picking back-to-back champions with an altitude change unless your name is Rafael Nadal.
With Daniil Mededev not himself, I considered last year’s finalist Felix Auger-Aliassime and big-serving Brandon Nakashima as dark horses to come through this quarter. In particular Nakashima plays with the kind of control that on paper should do well in Madrid. Ultimately, though, I’m favoring Casper Ruud as a semifinalist. Even if he’s off peak in 2025, he still has the forehand, the serve, the fitness and the precision to win in Madrid.
2025 Mutua Madrid Open Preview: Novak Djokovic
Djokovic wields all the tools for domination in the Spanish capital. The GOAT has lifted the trophy three times in Madrid. He’s still seeking tour title number 100, and that’s motivation enough. I think his draw is favorable. Seeds near him include 5’7” Sebastian Baez, who struggles with the high bounce at altitude and Ugo Humbert, with a poor Madrid record.
The top half of this bracket is a bit more interesting. Circle a potential meeting between Tommy Paul and Joao Fonseca, a ridiculously good returner against a ridiculously good server. Paul isn’t at his clay-best in Madrid. Fonseca has the game, but I find that big bangers can sometimes spray as they grasp for their forehand groove. This could still be a great, intricate match if it happens. Unless Joao is in the zone, I slightly favor Tommy’s defense.
At the tippy-top, circle a possible meeting between Jack Draper and Matteo Berrettini. Time to see what Draper is really made of on clay. Madrid is as good a place as any to showcase his forehand loop and shape. I just think a tall player like Berrettini can figure that out. Despite Draper’s 2-0 h2h vs Berrettini, they’ve been tight, 3-set battles. Jack doesn’t hit a kick second serve, so returning on either wing isn’t a total nightmare here. Matteo will need to have a stellar serving day, but I think he can solve the riddle at altitude.
If Berrettini could get through that, a possible quarterfinal might be Djokovic vs Berrettini. Matteo nabbed him earlier this year for the first time. Call me nostalgic, but I envision Novak keeping the ball to his backhand weakness and Matteo huffing and puffing. Copy and paste for any other quarterfinal opponent.
Alcaraz Quarter
The final section of this 2025 Madrid Preview is the Magica mystery tour. Who knows if Alcaraz’s hip abductor injury sustained in Barcelona will haunt him. Madrid feels like a hometown for Alcaraz– the 2022 and 2023 champion. It’s hard to say if Alcaraz will have his mind jumping ahead to Roland Garros, where he’ll have a tough field to plow this year.
His draw is eminently doable. Yes, he lost to Jiri Lehecka earlier this year, but the Czech doesn’t have a great record in Madrid. Nor does tour stalwart Alex de Minaur, and you almost never say that about Alex. What an opportunity with all the big one-handers in this section. Warm up the high-heavy top, Carlitos. Tsitsipas is in coaching chaos and has a bad back. Grigor Dimitrov and Lorenzo Musetti, also with their one-handed backhands, find Madrid a challenge. Denis Shapovalov has been inconsistent since winning in Dallas this year. It’s hard to pick anyone else besides Alcaraz.
My players to watch:
QF: Zverev, Ruud, Djokovic, Alcaraz
SF: Zverev, Alcaraz
F: Zverev
WTA Mutua Madrid Open Draw Preview and Analysis
The first glance of the women’s draw reveals two players with recurring nightmares. World number 2 Iga Swiatek, having lost to Jelena Ostapenko for the sixth time last week– a career bagel– could potentially meet her again in the Round of 16. But I actually don’t think it will come to that. It’s hard to go from indoors to thin-air outdoor Madrid. Also Penko, a subpar server, tends to spray her groundies here, which explains the string of early exits throughout her career. If Ostapenko does somehow get through, I think Iga figures it out anyway. I see a potential quarterfinal between Swiatek and Madison Keys, a rematch of this year’s clash down under.
Working upwards, Mirra Andreeva has a pair of deep runs in Madrid already in her short career, and if Coco Gauff can take advantage of conditions, they could meet in a quarterfinal. I would favor Andreeva’s control in that one.
Jessica Pegula always plays solidly in Madrid, and I’d love to see a battle between the American and a potentially healthy and settled Elena Rybakina. I think Jess would run her side to side, and I favor Pegula’s experience here.
The other player with a nemesis in her bracket is Qinwen Zheng who anchors a quarter with world number one and 2023 Madrid champion Aryna Sabalenka. It’s another career bagel with Aryna dominating 6-0. Talk about recurring nightmares.
My players to watch:
QF: Sabalenka, Pegula, Andreeva, Swiatek
SF: Sabalenka, Andreeva
F: Sabalenka
