Roland Garros 2025 Draw Preview and Analysis: ATP, WTA Predictions
The Roland Garros 2025 Draw Preview and Analysis has been spun around and turned upside down due to several tour elites like Novak Djokovic and Iga Swiatek not playing in top form and weaker than usual pockets in the draws.
The absolute first thing I looked up– even before matchups– is the weather forecast for Paris. I’ve been to Roland Garros in a parka, and I’ve been in a tank top. Weather makes a big difference on the moody clay surface unless your name is Rafael Nadal. The 14-time Roland Garros champion will be honored, but having retired, the rest of the field will have to contend with whatever the terre batteu serves up.
The forecast calls for cooler rainy weather on the very first day of the tournament followed by increasingly warm, dry conditions. Hotter weather means sun-baked, firmer clay. That favors the servers dropping a little more heat. That’s something to keep in mind when considering the Roland Garros 2025 draw preview.
In addition, Grand Slam season means see-ya to byes, and we have been gifted several enticing Round 1 matchups. A resurgent Hubert Hurkacz will face Brazilian phenom Joao Fonseca. This match takes place Sunday in cooler conditions. With a recent string of subpar results, I’m not sure Fonseca is availing himself of the top-flight scouting many of the tour’s elites are using. Will he fully comprehend Hubi’s flat monster backhand and inconsistent forehand? I’m not yet sold based on Joao’s patterns of play versus various opponents. Meanwhile, Hurkacz is serving over 228 kmh/142 mph despite recovery from a knee injury. Hubi was smart to wait until the knee felt really solid again. It appears it does. It should be a fun match, and I favor Hurkacz.
Other excellent Round 1 tilts include Alexandre Muller vs Jakub Mensik and Alexander Zverev against Learner Tien, who upset the German earlier this year.
Jannik Sinner Quarter
World number one Jannik Sinner returned from suspension looking fit and made the finals of Rome where he lost to Carlos Alcaraz. No shame in that result. While Sinner didn’t look to have diversified his baseline game much, his serve and weight of shot looked as impressive as ever.
In this section, I see a crackling potential Round of 16 match between Sinner and Frenchman Arthur Fils. If the Italian can advance past that contest and the French crowd, he could meet Alex De Minaur, Jacob Mensik or Jack Draper– all excellent if unique players. But I think Sinner can defeat any of them. Sinner and Draper have a head-to-head of 1-1, with the Brit’s win on grass and Sinner’s victory at last year’s US Open. Draper is still learning to slide well on clay, and with Jannik’s returning skills, I still like him against the lefty.
Roland Garros 2025 draw preview: Zverev Quarter
With a clay season not up to his standards, Zverev enters Roland Garros as the 3-seed. A concern in his section: Francisco Cerundolo. The Argentine wields a wicked forehand and owns their head-to-head 3-0– with all meetings on clay. I throw my hands up here. I cannot pick Zverev with a stat like that.
In the quarterfinals Cerundolo could meet the winner of Daniil Medvedev and Novak Djokovic. I pick those two players because other than these two colorful Slam champs, this is a weaker section of the draw. Yes Novak might have to fend off a French crowd pulling for Corentin Moutet in Round 2. But he loves that. Denis Shapovalov’s one-handed backhand doesn’t play well here, and Ugo Humbert has been injured. This is good for Novak. I’m projecting a rematch of last year’s incredible 5-set masterpiece between Djokovic and Cerundolo. Since I don’t typically pick against goats in Slams, I go Djokovic.
Roland Garros 2025: Lorenzo Musetti
The hot, dry forecast for the middle and later rounds does not help Lorenzo Musetti, who has been in ridiculously good form this clay season. Has he peaked too early? His serve and one-handed backhand could be vulnerable to a firm, jumping surface. The only other players I can see coming through in the section are Holger Rune and Taylor Fritz, both of whom are problematic.
Rune has battled throat and stomach infections which have been resistant to antibiotics. I’m worried about his fitness. Fritz has had a devil of a clay campaign with a string of early exits. This is a really tough call between Musetti, Rune and Fritz. I will reluctantly favor Rune due to conditions similar to Barcelona, where he just won. Rune has a 10-3 overall record at the French Open with a pair of quarterfinal appearances.
Carlos Alcaraz Quarter
Defending Roland Garros champion Carlos Alcaraz has a favorable draw. He could meet Fabian Marozsan in Round 3– a good clay court player who famously upset Alcaraz in Rome 2023. The Spaniard has since evened the head-to-head and has improved as a server. Stefanos Tsitisipas is not his best unfortunately.
The winner of a potential match between Casper Ruud and Tommy Paul could set up a quarterfinal meeting with Alcaraz. Ruud is looking more like his clay court self and has a 4-2 advantage in the head-to-head with the always-underrated Paul. I think Ruud’s topspin draws errors on Paul’s forehand. They’re both great movers, so let’s hope that match happens on Chatrier. I then see a peaking Alcaraz out-dueling Ruud due to Carlitos having command of the net and drop shots.
My players to watch:
QF: Sinner, Djokovic, Rune, Alcaraz
SF: Sinner, Alcaraz
F: Alcaraz
Roland Garros 2025 draw preview: WTA
The women’s draw is one of the most intricate and layered I have seen at the French Open in years. The main reason: Swiatek is not in top form. Also slow clay is Sabalenka’s worst (albeit still quite good) surface. Intrigue fills Swiatek’s quarter in particular. Let’s dive deeper into this Roland Garros 2025 women’s singles draw.
First a word about a mysterious first-round match between injury-plagued star Paula Badosa and clay-shy Naomi Osaka. I love Round 1 meetings like this. I analyzed every potential factor I could think of, taking form, injuries, playing style and history into account. These two endlessly fascinating players have never played. I’m going to tip it to Naomi based on an emerging spark of confidence from winning a 125 on clay and Paula’s lack of recent matches. But it’s a darn-near impossible pick.
As mentioned above, the weather conditions could slightly start to help top servers in the middle and later stages of the tournament. That benefits Sabalenka, Clara Tauson and Qinwen Zheng in the first quarter. Given Zheng’s Olympic Gold Medal at Roland Garros and Sabalenka’s brilliance in 2025, I view this as the projected quarterfinal matchup. What a tough call. Qinwen just finally broke Aryna’s lock over her with a straight sets win in Rome to make their overall head-to-head 6-1 in favor of Sabalenka. I don’t think Aryna wants to lose to Zheng twice in a row, and she will fight like a dog if this match happens. That said, I favor Zheng’s power topspin forehand to stay in the court just a little bit better here. This one could go 3 sets.
Moving down the draw, how odd that someone other than Iga Swiatek sits atop a quarter, but due to uncharacteristically poor form, Iga enters as a 5-seed. Rome champion Jasmine Paolini lands as the top seed in the absolutely most compelling section of the entire Roland Garros draw. I project a round 3 matchup between Elena Rybakina and 2017 French Open champion Jelena Ostapenko, with the winner to face Iga. These are 3 players with massive question marks– who also could absolutely win the whole thing. If the conditions are warm and dry, I give Rybakina the edge over Ostapenko, saving Swiatek from having to face her 0-6 nemesis. I then favor Iga over Elena due to experience and current fitness levels. To me, that would set up a quarterfinal between Paolini and Swiatek– a real tossup. Iga gets my vote because she’s earned it as a 4-time Roland Garros champion and a 4-0 head to head vs Paolini.
The other half of this Roland Garros 2025 draw preview is more straightforward for me. Jessica Pegula and Mirra Andreeva stand as the top seeds in the upper quarter. If former RG finalist Karolina Muchova is decently healthy, I could envision a matchup with underrated workhorse Elise Mertens. I would then project Mertens to meet Pegula, with the Belgian owning a surprising 4-1 in the head-to-head. A quarterfinal between rock-solid rising star Mirra Andreeva and Mertens is a strong possibility. Mirra was a semifinalist here last year and claims clay as her favorite surface. I think she can repeat that result with her heavy forehand and disciplined use of her excellent drop shot.
Coco Gauff has drawn the easiest path of the top seeds, in my opinion. Other notable players include Madison Keys (not great on clay), Emma Navarro (uneven recent results), Barbora Krejcikova (just back from extended injury break) and Anna Kalinskaya (possibly fatigued from a deep run week prior). I like Coco’s chances to make the semifinals provided her double faults are reasonably in check.
Players to watch:
QF: Zheng, Swiatek, Andreeva, Gauff
SF: Swiatek, Gauff
F: Gauff
