Wimbledon 2025 Draw Preview and Analysis
World number one Jannik Sinner scores the pole position with an easy Wimbledon draw and 7-time champion Novak Djokovic could collide with British heir-to-throne Jack Draper in the 2025 Wimbledon draw preview.
On the women’s side, a blockbuster development. World number one Aryna Sabalenka has been handed an unimaginable obstacle in unseeded grass court monarch Marketa Vondrousova, the 2023 Wimbledon champion.
While weather might typically be a determining factor in the draws at Roland Garros, a Wimbledon analyst must dutifully examine the health reports. Not only are players weary after a grueling clay campaign, the short grass season brings slips and slides, sprains and strains. Parts of these draws are loaded with grass court talent– but prospects can be undercut by nagging injuries. I’ve looked into this. Don’t worry, I got you.
As for the weather, interestingly Wimbledon will experience a two-day heat wave to start the tournament before London settles into its usual cooler self. So look for the big servers to have an even bigger edge than they already do in Round 1.
To the Wimbledon 2025 draw preview and analysis.
Sinner Quarter
In my opinion, Sinner has the easiest quarter of the men’s draw because next-highest seed Lorenzo Musetti skipped all grass warmups. The elite Italian mover has a beautiful 64% winning percentage on the surface but memorably had to retire against Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals of Roland Garros.
What is Musetti’s injury status? While perhaps not blade-sharp on grass at the moment, he appears to have mostly healed from his leg injury. He played a practice set against Jack Draper this week. While he lost the casual affair 4-1, look at around the 10:30 mark of this video. Musetti runs all-out for a short ball and seems no worse for the wear. Also of note: he doesn’t seem to be taped.
Based on his stellar Wimbledon track record, I see Lorenzo meeting Sinner in the quarterfinal. Jannik has a 2-0 head-to-head against Musetti. These Italians know each other so well that there shouldn’t be any surprises.
Elsewhere in this quarter, wounded players who are usually Wimbledon stalwarts include Grigor Dimitrov and Tommy Paul. They could meet– or not– also having crafty Corentin Moutet and upstart Hamad Medjedovic in this section. Reluctantly, I’ll pick Paul to come out of all this, only to slam into Sinner.
I’m also intrigued by potential matchups between huge-serving Americans Brandon Nakashima and Reilly Opelka– I pick Brandon based on quicker reflexes. And if he’s healthy, I like Ugo Humbert over Ben Shelton in a potential all-lefty battle.
Wimbledon 2025 Draw Preview: Novak Djokovic and Jack Draper
This is the toughest quarter. Draper has fought hard in 2025 and clawed his way to a 4-seed– only to “earn” the GOAT Djokovic in his draw. Novak is an obvious under-seed at 6. I don’t care that he skipped grass warmups. At 38 years old, he doesn’t need it and is probably better off protecting his body. He seemed to enjoy time on court with Sinner and Sabalenka this week.
Tricky spots for Novak? Brit Dan Evans, who crazily beat him at Monte Carlo 2021 in their only meeting. Expect a modicum of revenge. Then there’s a possible match with American Alex Michelson, an exceptional grass-court talent. That one could go 4 or 5. After that? You’re looking at all-court virtuoso Alex De Minaur. Whew! Novak was wise to rest up.
A word about Demon. He’s normally one of the most reliable picks in any tournament. In my opinion, he (along with Alcaraz) has the fastest twitch on tour. That gift is absolute sterling silver as a weapon on grass. But we’ve got some issues. De Minaur has a nagging shoulder injury, and more crucially, he’s admitted to feeling burned out. He skipped all grass warm-ups, and even a hit with his fiance Katie Boulter didn’t perk him up. This is tough. Because there’s a lot of glitter and faff around their relationship in Great Britain, I think it’s a lot for Alex right now. So it’s easy to go with Novak in that potential 4th Round contest.
Draper’s path is wild. He’s potentially got a suddenly awakened Halle champ Alexander Bublik possibly in Round 3, followed by the prospect of a big serving Jakub Mensik. While I would tip Jack to some through both of those, he might be a bit roughed up. If you know me, you know I don’t pick against GOATs in Slams to make Final Fours. So Djokovic it is.
Zverev Quarter
When I saw Alexander Zverev land in the same quarter as his kryptonite Taylor Fritz, I really wanted to pick the American to come through. Fritz owns a h2h of 8-5 against Zverev, including that Boss final at Stuttgart just 3 weeks ago. Then I saw Taylor’s draw. Yikes.
First round, Fritz has huge-serving Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. I do believe Taylor can exploit that one-handed backhand just enough to come through, but expect tiebreakers aplenty. It gets worse in Round 2 with Canadian Gabriel Diallo, a young all-surface breakout. Gab is limber with good scouting and Fritz is high-IQ with arguably the most reliable serve on tour. Tough one! I cautiously lean toward a Diallo upset based on his superior ability at the net.
Whoever wins that match could get Alejandro Davidovich Fokina after that. What a nightmare. I think the beneficiary of all this carnage could be Daniil Medvedev, who has reignited a little spark recently. Meddy has a lovely 18-6 overall record at Wimbledon with a pair of semifinal runs the past two years.
So I can envision a semifinal between Medvedev and Zverev, who has a fairly straightforward draw. That would be a tough quarter to call. Daniil is 13-7 against Alex, with victories in 4 straight. But their matches are almost always excruciatingly close. Given that, I favor Medvedev slightly in a war of attrition.
Wimbledon 2025 Draw Preview and Analysis: Carlos Alcaraz
Two-time defending Wimbledon titleist and on-a-roll Roland Garros champ Carlos Alcaraz has a doable draw. Given the way he swashbuckles, my biggest concern for Carlitos is injury due to slippage on the grass. He spends so much time in the corners and at the net. It’s like running on soap up there, and if the roof closes on Centre Court, look out.
Other than that, he could face a competent Felix Auger-Aliassime and/or Andrey Rublev. Neither is currently breathing Alcaraz’s rare air. At the top of this section, Tallon Griekspoor might meet Jiri Lehecka, and I like Tallon’s net skills in that potential match. If Griekspoor meets Alcaraz in the quarter, the head-to-head is 5-0 in favor of Carlos. If not, he has similar records against the others. Enough said.
One big reason I really love this 2025 Wimbledon draw preview is the following scenario: Players with a clear hole in their game facing opponents who have that very weakness as their weapon. It gives those players a chance to understand what they’re missing and perhaps inspire changes. One such potential meeting is Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Adrian Mannarino. Stef notoriously lacks a great slice. Mannarino uses slice as his cryptocurrency. I pick Adrian and a potential awakening for Tsitsipas.
My players to watch:
Coming through
QF: Sinner, Djokovic, Medvedev, Alcaraz
SF: Sinner, Alcaraz
F: Sinner
*****
Wimbledon Preview & Analysis: Women’s Draw
If the cool, windy conditions at the Roland Garros final were unlucky for Sabalenka, this 2025 Wimbledon draw might be even worse. Vondousova, who has been steadily improving since shoulder surgery, is the ultimate unseeded floater. The exceptional Czech has landed right near Aryna, and they could potentially meet in the 3rd round.
Despite a difficult rehab, all of Marketa’s losses in the past 6 months have been high-quality. She has beaten Sabalenka in their last 2 meetings– both on grass. Given this, I cannot in good conscience pick Sabalenka here. The stats won’t let me.
At the bottom of this thick, intense quarter is Madison Keys, a brilliant server who plays well at Wimbledon. I can envision a quarterfinal between Vondousova and Keys in which Marketa makes Maddie very uncomfortable with her slices outside of the preferred strike zone. I lean slightly toward Vondousova to come through here.
But this section has plenty of other possibilities. Circle a first round match between injury-plagued Paula Badosa and queen of London’s courts Katie Boulter. Throw Raducanu into this wicket, though she’s not in top form right now. And never ever count out the grit of Elina Svitolina on any surface.
Moving down the draw, Qinwen Zheng doesn’t have a stellar record at Wimbledon and has some minor injuries. But she’s working with one of Rafa’s old coaches, and I still see that serve getting her past Naomi Osaka and deep. Ultimately, I love Jasmine Paolini’s reflexes and ability at the net to triumph in a quarterfinal.
In the other half of the Wimbledon 2025 draw preview, the 3 seed Jessica Pegula has put in some serious paces the the short grass court season. But Jess is a tempo player and might get tripped up by Tatjana Maria or Ekaterina Alexandrova. Emma Navarro is also in the section, and if she can get past wild card and two-time champion Petra Kvitova in round 1, might make a run toward the 4th round.
Ultimately, I see Mirra Andreeva, who is quickly finding her footing on grass, ou-thinking her opponents with her savvy point construction and underrated serve.
In the final quarter, three superstars of the women’s game: Iga Swiatek, Elena Rybakina and Coco Gauff. What to do, what to do. If you consider the element of grass, this is a complicated equation. I see a 4th round meeting between Swiatek and Rybakina. Iga has the head-to-head 5-4, but they’ve never met on grass. Elena is a former Wimbledon champion. I have Rybakina coming through in 3 sets based on power and efficiency. Iga’s western grip is still a minor quibble on a fast surface like grass.
Then I see Gauff over Samsonova, who Coco has beaten thrice. Looking at that matchup, Gauff typically needs a set to catch up to Samsonova’s serve. Then she gets the errors. That would put Gauff vs Rybakina or Swiatek, which is a joke to try to call. Since I must, I will go with Rybakina due to her superior serve.
Players to watch:
Coming through
QF: Vondrousova, Paolini, Andreeva, Rybakina
SF: Vondrousova, Andreeva
F: Vondrousova
