Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray catch a break, while others receive tricky Wimbledon 2024 draws

Wimbledon 2024 Preview: ATP, WTA Men’s and Women’s Draw Analysis

In the Wimbledon 2024 preview, the number one tennis men’s and women’s players in the world have tumbled into a sticky draw, while tennis icons Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray caught some luck.

Popping out: World number one Jannik Sinner might have to face former Wimbledon finalist Matteo Berrettini. Matteo’s ranking probably belies his actual form. The country of Italy does not approve.

Meanwhile, women’s current leader Iga Swiatek has plunged into a pint of former Grand Slam winners, including last year’s Wimbledon champ Marketa Vondrousova. Not easy for Iga.

But that’s the way the Wimbledon 2024 draw preview shakes out.

To the analysis…

Wimbledon 2024 Preview: Djokovic, Murray Draw Tuesday Start

Former Wimbledon Champions Djokovic and Murray are both coming off surgery. Neither have officially confirmed participation, but both allowed themselves to be in the draw. Fortunately, they fell into the bottom half, giving them an extra day to test their match fitness.

Healing from a torn meniscus, Djokovic has said he won’t compete unless he thinks he can win his 8th Wimbledon.

Murray, who had a cyst removed from his back last week, wants to put a laced-up sneaker onto the sacred grass of Wimbledon one more time before he retires.

Both these iconic players have landed in the bottom quarter. The Djokovic draw is fairly straightforward, beginning with Czech qualifier Vit Kopriva, until the closing arguments of the tournament.

Holger Rune and Alex DeMinaur are players who have beaten Djokovic in recent months– only to have the GOAT avenge those contests.

More troublesome– you’d think– would be Hubert Hurkacz, who famously took out Roger Federer in his last Wimbledon. Hubi is at the bookend of this section. But look again. Djokovic commands a 7-0 record vs Hurkacz, including a Round of 16 defeat last year. Still, Hurkacz isn’t intimidated by GOATs.

The real question is whether Novak really wants to play. His stated goal is the Olympics. Does it make sense to do this on slippery grass so soon after surgery? The ultimate competitor, it must be such a tough call inside his head.

In an eerie twist of fate, Murray will take on Tomas Machac. Hardcore tennis fans will recall that Murray’s last truly great match was against Machac at this year’s Miami Open. It was classic Andy. He gave it everything and continued to grind after twisting his ankle. That injury set off a cascade of health problems. And here we are. If he can’t manage singles, Murray has said doubles with his brother Jamie could be a special Wimbledon finale for him.

Wimbledon 2024 Preview: Sinner Quarter

Back up at the top of the draw, the Wimbledon 2024 preview features the potential all-Italian clash in Round 2. But Sinner also drew what I call the next-best– the highest seed that isn’t a Top 4. That’s Daniil Medvedev. According to scouts watching practice, Meddy is experimenting with a close-in return position for this Wimbledon. He does that sometimes, but to consistently do that would be a departure from his way-back ways. It makes sense for this surface.

Other names of note in this section: Nicolas Jarry, a big server with good grass experience, lefty Ben Shelton and Grigor Dimitrov.

Sinner vs Medvedev, a rematch of this year’s Australian Open final, would not be an easy quarterfinal for Jannik. The H2H is 6-5 in favor of Meddy, but Sinner has won the last 5. Daniil will be looking to halt that one-way traffic.

That match is a strong possibility, and I really wanted to pick Medvedev to win that match, because I believe what goes up must come down. But looking at the stats, Medvedev’s serving numbers have plummeted. The ATP’s overall metric puts him at #37 in the world, while Sinner has risen to #3. Meddy is below 50% on second serve points won. He needs to fix that. So for now, the stats compel me to go with Sinner, who just won Halle, to come through.

Carlos Alcaraz Quarter

Roland Garros 2024 champion Carlos Alcaraz has the easiest draw of the Wimbledon 2024 preview. Last year’s Wimby champ gets Casper Ruud, a notoriously poor grass court player, as a potential quarterfinalist. But who are we kidding? Casper has never made it past the 2nd round of Wimbledon.

In my view, the most troublesome player in this section for Carlitos is Tommy Paul, who just won Queen’s. But winning both Queen’s and Wimbledon is rare. Tommy’s got a lot swirling around him lately as the newly top-ranked American. Knocking off Alcaraz is a big ask. It could be an amazing match, though, because Carlitos loves to hit the drop shot, and nobody can run ‘em down like Tommy Paul.

Zverev Quarter

Alexander Zverev has really developed into an all-surface player. He has a surprisingly good 66% success rate on grass. His serve, right now, is otherworldly. His court case drama is behind him. All he seems to lack is the confidence to get over the Grand Slam finish line. His defeat at the hands of Alcaraz in the French Open final was his latest stumbling block. In this quarter, lefty Brit Jack Draper would seem an upset special, but unfavorable crowds don’t seem to bother Alex.

At the other end of this quarter is Andrey Rublev, who has been emotionally challenged of late. Stefanos Tsitsipas, with his lack of slice on the backhand wing, doesn’t play well at Wimbledon. Alejandro Tabilo is on the come-up, but this is best of 5. He’s young. The only other real threat is Taylor Fritz. This big-serving American loves grass, and I sense he’s hungry.

Zverev leads the Fritz H2H 5-3, but it’s gone Zverev-Fritz-Zverev-Fritz, and now it’s Taylor’s turn. (That’s a bit of a joke.) Honestly, when in doubt at Wimbledon, I give the edge to the better volleyer, and that’s Alex.

Players to watch:
QF: Sinner, Alcaraz, Zverev, Hurkacz
SF: Alcaraz, Hurkacz
F: Alcaraz

*****

Wimbledon Preview 2024: Women’s Draw

As mentioned, Iga Swiatek has some crackerjacks in her quarter, including former Australian Open champ Sofia Kenin in the first round. Iga has also drawn Jelena Ostapenko in her section. That’s a problem. The go-for-broke Latvian has a 4-0 record against the world number one. And she bounced Iga from last year’s U.S. Open.

In addition, Swiatek could potentially face nothing-to-lose Danielle Collins and adept spot-server Barbora Krejikova before a potential matchup with Vondrousova in the quarterfinals. Phew. Given that grass is her worst surface, that’s a challenge for Iga. If she makes it through that, Elena Rybakina awaits.

Rybakina won Wimbledon in 2022. Her problem this year seems to be illness and fatigue, not necessarily injury. But she loves the grass, and the points are short here. She can unload on her big serve and forehand.

Ons Jabeur is in this quarter, but she’s still shaking off the ghosts of last year’s Wimbledon meltdown. Elina Svitolina, Katie Boulter and Jessica Pegula are other notable names here.

Aryna Sabalenka has a fairly straightforward draw. Her big-babe serve should play well here. Mirra Andreeva could be a challenge, but other than that, it should be hopscotch chalk for Aryna.

Finally, with her hard-earned number two seed, Coco Gauff is on the opposite side of the draw from her albatross Swiatek. That could free her up a bit. Coco might have to contend with Madison Keys, Marta Kostyuk and human spark plug Jasmine Paolini, but she has grass-court experience to go with her youthful movement.

Players to watch:
The Big 4
QF: Swiatek, Rybakina, Sabalenka, Gauff
SF: Rybakina, Sabalenka
F: Sabalenka