Nadal vs Djokovic H2H Rivalry Potentially Meets Again In Paris

Olympics Tennis Preview: 2024 Men’s Draw

The Paris Olympics tennis preview delivers a potential wowzer: a second-round duel between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal. This men’s draw feels like something between a Masters 1000 and a Grand Slam, distilled down to a 64-player field with 16 seeds.

The Olympics might be Rafa’s last tournament. Or not. But let’s just say this. To end his career with a match against Djokovic, the rival of a lifetime, might be fitting. It’s the GOAT vs. the Clay GOAT. And the place is Roland Garros– where a statue of Nadal adorns its beautiful grounds.

Nadal vs Djokovic: 2024 Paris Olympics Tennis Preview

I want to make just a few quick notes about this matchup before we examine the rest of the draw, which is also quite compelling. Djokovic leads Nadal in the overall head-to-head by a slim 30-29. Are you getting goosebumps?

When they last met in 2022, Nadal beat Djokovic at Roland Garros in a 4-set quarterfinal on the way to the title. Oh but recall– the previous year, Novak beat Rafa in a 4-set semifinal on his way to the title.

Nadal has two Olympic gold medals, one in singles (Beijing 2008) and one in men’s doubles (Rio 2016). Djokovic does not have any Olympic gold medals and has plainly stated that he wants one. He’s won Roland Garros three times. Nadal has won 14 times.

Rafa is 38 years old, and Novak is 37. Neither guy is performing at his pinnacle, but even a past-peak member of the Big 3 is ridiculously difficult to beat. While Nadal had a nice run to the finals of a 250 last week, he had to grind. Bigtime. Djokovic has suffered a series of unfortunate events in 2024. He opted to play Wimbledon and made a lovely trip to the championship match– where he was soundly defeated by Carlos Alcaraz.

Finally, a note about clay. Nadal leads the clay H2H 20-8 over Djokovic. That’s actually very impressive for Novak. It’s been said that one of the toughest tasks in sports is to beat Rafa on clay. Djokovic has done it 8 times.

Oh and one more thing. Some stuff actually needs to happen in order to set up this monster match! I’m a bit premature with all this. Djokovic would need to beat Matthew Ebden, and Nadal would need to top Marton Fucsovics in their first round matches. I’m going to unabashedly root for that. Sorry not sorry.

Paris Olympics 2024 Men’s Singles Draw Analysis

Unfortunately World #1 Jannik Sinner had to withdraw from the Olympics with tonsillitis, and Andy Murray has ended his singles career. He will only play doubles at this Olympics. No worries. Plenty of talent here, and this scenario puts Alcaraz and Djokovic on the opposite sides of the draw, where they belong.

First the easy part. If the talented young Frenchman Arthur Fils can get past the upstart Italian Matteo Arnaldi in Round 1, I have Fils in the Round of 16. He just beat Alexander Zverev to grab a clay court title, and he’ll have the French crowd backing him. Question is, who would he play?

Yikes. This is tough. I don’t like to pick against either Rafa or Novak. It physically pains me. To do this, I need to remind myself that this match, for all its sentimental value, would really be just like any other match: A snapshot in time. It’s not a final statement of my opinion on anyone’s career as a whole.

So what does the current picture tell us? Novak had knee surgery in June– for an injury that occurred on this very red clay.

Thinking out loud and stating the obvious: Clay is its own beast.

I watched every stroke that Nadal hit at the Swedish Open last week. Nadal’s forehand and lateral movement are as whip-sure as ever. He’s running around to hit forehand like a champ. His serve still leaves something to be desired, and he had loads of trouble holding serve in Bastad.

But clay takes the sting out of serves. And Nadal’s winning percentage on second-serves– on all surfaces– is statistically the best that has even been. The man just knows how to build a point on this surface. So I give Rafa the edge over Novak by the slimmest of margins in a 3-set epic.

That would put my brackets at Rafa vs. Fils, and I can’t not pick Nadal here– I’ve come this far.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has a fairly straightforward draw, and I have him coming through at his favorite venue. That would put Nadal vs. Stef– which is Rafa’s favorite kind of matchup. To pull a quote from his book, writing about Roger Federer: “To the backhand, to the backhand, to the backhand. Always to the backhand.” Rafa again in 3.

The other side of this half is teeming with storylines. My Olympics tennis preview bracket has Taylor Fritz avenging his Wimbledon loss to Lorenzo Musetti only to meet Zverev in an awkward re-match. The French crowd hates Fritz, and Zverev is miffed at Taylor’s box. Both players have off-the-court distractions. Two giant servers on a surface that doesn’t always amplify serves.

The truth is, Alex’s winning percentages on clay hover around 80%, while Taylor is around 58%. It’s a sizable difference. So I have Zverev coming through and wielding confidence against Nadal, who he crushed in the first round of Roland Garros 2024 just a few months ago.

Carlos Alcaraz: Olympics Tennis Preview

As clay court tennis goes, the other half of this Paris Olympics men’s tennis draw is substantially weaker. Carlos Alcaraz notwithstanding.

The six seed Casper Ruud, normally a force on clay, seems to be waiting for the retirement of the Big 3 until he gets his mojo back. In fact, I’m high on Argentina’s Francisco Cerundolo to come through that section. Fran has a 3-2 lead in his head-to-head with Ruud.

Daniil Medvedev, much improved on clay in recent years, has a cake draw in his section. Meddy and Fran have never met! Love it when that happens. The problem for Cerundolo here is that no one on the planet plays like Medvedev. And to meet him first time in competition? Tough ask. I like Daniil in 3, if that happens.

Alex De Minaur has been playing lights out in 2024, but he’s coming off a hip injury that forced him out of Wimbledon. I like to say that the clay of the ATP Tour is no place to rehab. It’s punishing. American Tommy Paul is the 9th seed in that section, and as a former junior champ at Roland Garros, he’s my pick to come through.

That leaves the ebullient Alcaraz with no real competition, except possibly the next highest seed in his part of the draw, Alejandro Tabilo. The lefty Chilean is an exceptional athlete but not quite ready for the likes of Carlitos.

Alcaraz vs Paul would be an entertaining match of the tour’s current super-movers. While Paul has great hands, Carlitos has softer hands. Perfect for those drop shots and touch volleys.

Prediction: Paris Olympics Men’s Draw 2024

I have Zverev over Rafa and Alcaraz over Medvedev. Then I have Alcaraz over Zverev. Here’s my thinking. You don’t diverge from the current trend until you’re informed otherwise. Carlos has won both Roland Garros and Wimbledon in 2024. His talent is otherworldly. He will relish his first opportunity to play for Spain in Olympic competition.

I also think the shorter, best-of-three format helps him. Alcaraz hasn’t yet perfected the art of winning early-round matches in straight sets to preserve his energy. It will advantage him not to have to slog through 4 or 5 sets early in the tournament. Then he can feel free to grind if he wishes– or put on a fireworks display with all his variety.

While best-of-three can sometimes randomize results (see women, WTA Tour), in this case the skill of Alcaraz is just too massive.