Madrid Open Preview
Loaded with heavy hitters, the Madrid Open 2024 preview and draw analysis has arrived. World number one Novak Djokovic will sit out for “non-medical reasons” but the rest of the tennis elite clock in for this Masters 1000 event. That includes 5-time champion Rafael Nadal in what could be his last competitive appearance in the Spanish capital.
The Madrid Open 2024 preview features 128 players in the men’s ATP and women’s WTA singles draws. 32 seeded players receive first-round byes, which is a critical advantage because of the new two-week format.
No Novak: Djokovic Skips
Opting to sit out the Madrid Open 2024 is a logical and strategic decision. Conditions in Madrid are unique: Slow clay but the altitude gives fast air. Madrid is not as apples-to-apples for Roland Garros conditions as Rome will be in two weeks.
Turning 37 next month, Djokovic has to be careful about risking injury. A deep run in a tournament like Madrid can be great for confidence but damaging to the body. Just as he was in Miami when he withdrew from the tournament there in March, Djokovic has been enjoying time in Madrid with friends– it’s life on his terms.
Madrid Open 2024 Preview: Trends
At over 2,000 feet, altitude plays a role. Here’s what to remember. Players with topspin take advantage of their heavy strokes causing their shots to jump off the ground.
On the other hand, flat ball hitters struggle to keep the ball in the court. Madrid needs margin. Take world #4 Daniil Medvedev. He struggles here.
Another consideration is that players with a one-handed backhand must have the ability to run around and hit forehand. The only player with a one-handed backhand to win this tournament is Roger Federer, who took the trophy three times. But then, he’s Roger. And he could run-around with the best. Both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Dominic Thiem have made the final, but generally speaking, high topspin to a one-hander’s backhand can create all kinds of problems in Madrid.
Finally, big servers tend to do better in Madrid than they do in other clay environments because of the light, fast air helping their fast serves even more. Kick serves are also exaggerated, which explains why Carlos Alcaraz has won in Madrid the past two years.
To the Madrid Open 2024 draw analysis.
Sinner Draw
Jannik Sinner takes the top seed at Madrid Open 2024 due to Djokovic’s withdraw. To be blunt about Sinner’s chances: He’s unproven here. Sinner’s record is just 3-2 with the Round of 16 being his best result.
Still, Sinner benefits from an improved serve and drawing the aforementioned 3-seed Medvedev in his half. Beyond the big-serving Nicolas Jarry, Sinner shouldn’t have much problem moving through the quarter. Barcelona champion Casper Ruud awaits as a potential quarterfinal opponent, but even the steady Scandinavian has to be tired and taxed after deep runs to the finals of the past 2 clay court tournaments.
Madrid Open Preview: Medvedev and Nadal Quarter
This is a wild and complicated section of the draw with the biggest opportunity for some enterprising player.
Nadal has drawn 16-year-old American prodigy Darwin Blanch in Round 1, who had a hilarious, must-see reaction to this matchup. Barring some injury status we don’t know about (and that’s entirely possible), Nadal should win this. The King of Clay would then get Alex De Minaur in the next round, who just beat Nadal last week. Bad luck for both of them.
Rafa will be looking for a range of different racquets to see on this comeback trail, not a rinse-and-repeat. But he won’t complain. Due to the altitude and general fitness levels of the two players, I like Demon in that match– but in a much closer contest than the straight-sets Barcelona meeting.
With Medvedev’s lackluster results in Madrid and Tsitsipas as the other high seed, this quarter is up for grabs. Tsitsipas has the one-handed backhand as well as extended performances the past 2 weeks. He’s only human.
Other notables in the quarter include a trio of Americans in Sebastian Korda, Ben Shelton and Francis Tiafoe. (This seems to be the tournament where the Americans finally show up in Europe.) None of these three has a great record in Madrid.
That said, Shelton lost a very close match to Jan-Lennard Struff last year in his first and only appearance here. There was no shame in that because Struff went on to the finals. The combination of Ben’s leftiness and his massive kick serve should have opponents wrong-footed left and right. Remember: On the women’s side, lefty Petra Kvitova has won Madrid three times.
Zverev Quarter
Alexander Zverev’s game is suited to these courts and conditions. He’s tall, so high bouncing balls land right in his strike zone. He has a big first serve, top on his forehand and the kind of consistency on the backhand that won him Madrid in 2018. Anyone who faces Zverev should pepper his forehand and simply pray he’s having an off serving day. Luck would need to be involved.
Another tall player with decent results in Madrid is Taylor Fritz. The American was having a nice run here last year when he was edged in 3 sets by Zhizhen Zhang. Fritz has the kind of heavy ball that works here. The only cause for concern: a spate of sprayed forehands in Monte Carlo. Spraying doesn’t work in Madrid.
Hubert Hurkacz is another player in this area of the Madrid Open 2024 Preview with solid results and the right kind of serve for these conditions.
Madrid Open 2024: Carlos Alcaraz
Two-time defending champ Carlos Alcaraz has received a favorable draw in Madrid. He’d meet Struff in the Round of 16, but chances are the German is still feeling euphoric from his first-ever ATP title in Munich on Sunday.
Other high seeds including Holger Rune and Andrey Rublev have been very much out of form recently. Madrid is not one of those places to snap your game back to reality since the conditions differ so much from the ultimate prize: Roland Garros.
The Alcaraz kick serve and the familiarity with this lovely Spanish city are two big reasons to like Carlitos here. Es muy bueno.
Players to watch:
QF: Sinner, Shelton, Zverev, Alcaraz
SF: Sinner, Alcaraz
F: Alcaraz
Madrid Open 2024 Preview: Women’s Draw
Clay is the best surface for world number one Iga Swiatek, but she hasn’t won Madrid. He forehand is perfect here, but her serve is not. Consider booking her for the final four, but think about her matchups from there.
In this half, Coco Gauff stands seeded 3rd, and she has a long body of work in Madrid with notable results. Similar to Zverev, if she’s serving well, it’s untouchable. Her backhand is elite. It’s only a matter of corralling the forehand, which she has shown recently that she can do.
Fourth-seeded Elena Rybakina just beat Swiatek in Stuttgart indoors on clay. In my view, Rybakina’s game is still dynamic. Her forehand is a weapon, and she can hit it both flat or with topspin. But I don’t favor players who just won a tournament indoors then have to suddenly go outside at high altitude.
Finally, the biggest question mark of either draw is two-time champion Aryna Sabalenka. While her results in Madrid are sterling, her personal problems this year have had an unknown impact. Here’s the thing. Sabalenka likes to attack her returns. But in Madrid this year she’s drawn some players with great serves including Barbora Krejcikova, Danielle Collins and Carolina Garcia. Those power serves could bait her into some return errors.
Garcia has won her last 3 meetings with Sabalenka. Caroline also has a long history and solid results in Madrid.
Players to watch:
QF: Swiatek, Gauff, Rybakina, Garcia
SF: Gauff, Garcia
F: Gauff
