The sixth meeting of the Djokovic, Alcaraz H2H could boil down to net play
Djokovic Alcaraz Wimbledon 2024 Final Preview and Analysis
Novak Djokovic continues to defy odds, critics and even modern medicine as he squares off with the thrilling fireball of young talent that is Carlos Alcaraz in the Wimbledon 2024 men’s final.
This will be the sixth match in the Djokovic Alcaraz H2H series, which Novak leads 3-2. Alcaraz memorably beat Djokovic in five sets last year to win Wimbledon, but Djokovic has captured their last two meetings.
Notes on the Alcaraz, Djokovic Paths to the Wimbledon 2024 Final
Djokovic has enjoyed an easier draw and far less time on court than Alcaraz. That’s mainly due to a walkover by Alex de Minaur in the quarterfinals. Less wear on the body and the recovering knee could benefit the 37-year-old GOAT. On the flipside, Djokovic hasn’t faced a top ten opponent this tournament. He’s a bit untested of late.
Alcaraz has experienced momentary dips in two main areas this tournament: First serve percentage and forehands in play.
Carlitos has proven he can win even with those lapses, as he finds solutions or leans on other areas of his game, such as his rock-solid returning.
On the other hand, Djokovic has been serving with his usual dominance, hitting spots and with speeds that are in line with his other championship runs.
Djokovic continues to run reliable patterns, such as rallying to a player’s weaker wing, then finishing in the opposite court. Alcaraz is more of a feel player at this point, going on instinct when to employ his highly successful drop shot.
What I See
Alcaraz and Djokovic are creators with all shots and patterns available to them. Both use the drop shot to disrupt their opponent, then creep forward immediately after hitting that shot. This scenario could lead to many points ending with both players at the net.
Who plays the cat-and-mouse points better? Alcaraz might have a slight edge in reflexes, but Djokovic has experience. Either way, these exciting points could prove the difference in the match.
While Djokovic mainly rallied to Lorenzo Musetti’s backhand in their semifinal, look for Novak to rally to the Alcaraz forehand a bit more. Why would he do that when that stroke is a potent weapon that can exceed 100 mph? Because it’s also the wing that produces more errors.
Their previous matchup at Wimbledon could have gone either way. A memorable forehand error into the net by Djokovic in the closing arguments of the 2nd set will motivate him to play with more margin in the tight moments, perhaps.
Other Enticing Notes to Keep in Mind
In scenarios where Djokovic has had an overhead to win the point, he has been a perfect 10-for-10 at Wimbledon 2024, according to IBM. Each of those overheads has been a clean winner. That’s significant because it’s a stroke he’s struggled with in the past.
Watching the Djokovic Alcaraz classic from Cincinnati last year, which Novak stormed from behind to take in a classic three sets, there might be a ‘tell’ that the Spaniard is fatiguing within a point: His use of a forehand slice.
I noticed the same thing in the Alcaraz Medvedev semifinal. After several neutral drives hit, Alcaraz sometimes goes to that shot mid-rally. It could be a sign for Djokovic to attack when he sees that.
Djokovic Alcaraz Prediction
Vegas favors the 21-year-old Alcaraz to capture his fourth major title. I don’t disagree based on the Spaniard’s reflexes, defense and net play. The capper for me is that Djokovic hasn’t seen much elite-level competition this year. He’ll have to adjust quickly. Alcaraz in five.
