BNP Paribas Open 2025: Draw Preview and Analysis
In a nightmare scenario for tennis fans, Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz have once again landed in the same quarter of a critical tournament, this time in the Indian Wells 2025 draw preview at the BNP Paribas Open. The same thing happened in January at the Australian Open. The two superstars did end up meeting in the quarterfinals, which played out in dramatic fashion as Djokovic emerged victorious.
This time, with world number 1 Jannik Sinner out of the mix on a 90-day suspension, you’d think the percentages would have these two titans away from each other in the draw. But the needle was threaded, and unfortunately, what could have made for a spectacular final (or at the very least semifinal), will be a quarterfinal if both stars make it that far.
Djokovic is a 24-time Grand Slam Champion with 5 titles here at Indian Wells. Alcaraz is seeking his 3rd consecutive BNP Paribas Open championship.
Indian Wells 2025 Draw Preview: Zverev Quarter
This tournament’s top seed hasn’t been playing well in recent weeks, but Alexander Zverev has a decent 13-8 career record here at Indian Wells. The guy plays well just about everywhere, in every condition, on every surface. If he can get by a red-hot Tomas Machac, he could potentially contend with Holger Rune, Ugo Humbert, Matteo Berrettini or Stefanos Tsitsipas. Stef doesn’t have a great record here, possibly because the ball flies high to his one-handed backhand. I like Zverev’s chances if he’s of healthy mind and body.
Casper Ruud helms the second quarter of this Indian Wells 2025 draw preview as the 4 seed. Daniil Medvedev anchors it. The two players I like in this section of the draw are Americans Tommy Paul and Alex Michelsen. I’m going to give Tommy the edge based on his movement and comfort level here, but it’s close.
Taylor Fritz won Indian Wells in 2022 and has the game to shine in the desert. The concern is an abdominal problem. I like Jack Draper in this section, and I’ll tell you why. He had a good showing in 2023, so he’s capable. He hits a heavy forehand, which will rocket off the court and out of the preferred strike zones of his opponents. Plus he’s lefty. That seems nightmarish. I saw him play in very hot, sunny and windy conditions in New York, and he does well with it. If Draper ends up meeting Ben Shelton– they’ve never met– so flip a coin on that lefty-polooza.
Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic
And finally the Alcaraz draw. For Novak, it’s a potpourri of different playing styles to potentially face. It starts with possible opening match against Nick Kyrgios. While not a problem, not fun to deal with. Then potentially Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who can turn things physical very quickly. Then you have the power of Hubert Hurkacz maybe. Then Alcaraz possibly? It’s so much to ask of a guy who hasn’t played much in 2025. Alcaraz’s section sees potentially a reawakened Denis Shapovalov. These days Shapo is not an easy out by any means. And nobody wants to see Alex De Minaur in their section. He just ruins you for any later matches. Because of Novak’s rust, I’ll reluctantly pick Carlitos to come through, but this is a tough, tough quarter.
My players to watch:
QF: Zverev, Paul, Draper, Alcaraz
SF: Zverev, Alcaraz
F: Alcaraz
*****
BNP Paribas 2025: Women’s Draw Analysis and Preview
The Indian Wells 2025 draw preview for the women features a slightly scrambled talent picture at the top, with a substantial drop off in current level below the upper tier.
Aryna Sabalenka is the top seed. Her only strong run here came in 2023. While Sabalenka can play well in any conditions, the slow-court-fast-air doesn’t necessarily suit her flat ball striking with lesser margins.
On the other end of the draw, Iga Swiatek has won Indian Wells twice. Her forehand loves this slow court tempo, and the surface does her topspin all kinds of favors. Outside of clay, these are the next-best conditions for the Polish superstar. The seeded player nearest Iga in the draw is Ons Jabeur, whose only good run at Indian Wells came in 2021– the year it was played in October. Should not be a problem for Iga.
Later in the draw, Swiatek could face Karolina Muchova in the quarters, but the Czech does not have a large body of work here in the desert. Iga’s draw? Me likey.
As the 3 seed, Coco Gauff has a difficult path. Gauff plays well at Indian Wells traditionally, so she’s got a puncher’s chance, but it would help to grab some straight sets wins early. She could face Emma Raducanu in her first match. Maria Sakkari, Amanda Anisimova, Emma Navarro, Diana Shnaider, Donna Vekic and Madison Keys all landed in this quarter. That’s brutal. Anisimova, Navarro and of course Keys have all notched titles already in 2025. I’m going to reluctantly pick Gauff to come through. Navarro is tired. Anisimova’s game is not perfectly suited to these conditions, and neither is Madi’s.
Jessica Pegula, the 4-seed, is one of a handful of players who doesn’t typically go deep at Indian Wells, but did have a good tournament in that 2021 October exception. Some of it is heat-related, some of it is margin-related. My theory is that flat-ball hitters are slightly less likely to go deep at Indian Wells.
This quarter is interesting because Pegula and former champion Elena Rybakina bookend the section. Rybakina’s coaching situation makes her level uncertain. Another unknown is Mirra Andreeva. She doesn’t have a win here in her only appearance, but she’s improving so rapidly, she could surprise the field.
Other players to watch: Naomi Osaka, who won Indian Wells in 2018. Petra Kvitova, making her way back after the birth of her first child. Paula Badosa, who won here in 2021. Jasmine Paolini: While her record at Indian Wells isn’t otherworldly, the surface should suit her style of play.
My players to watch:
QF: Paolini, Gauff, Rybakina, Swiatek
SF: Paolini, Swiatek
F: Swiatek
