Miami Open Preview 2025: ATP, WTA Draw Analysis
The 2025 Miami Open Preview and Draw Analysis features old guard star power in Novak Djokovic and a youthful blockbuster first-round match in Brazilian Joao Fonseca vs American Learner Tien. The women’s draw represents a realignment of power, as 17-year-old phenom Mirra Andreeva elbows her way into the WTA elite.
How Djokovic will perform in this 2025 Miami Open is a mystery. He has several factors working against him. While Djokovic has won the Miami Open 6 times, all of those championships came at the tournament’s old location. His one and only appearance at the Hard Rock Stadium ended with a Round of 16 loss to Roberto Bautista Agut in 2019. Just to give you a sense of how long ago that was, Roger Federer won that 2019 Miami Open.
In addition, Djokovic hasn’t appeared to be fully back to his usual self after injuries in the past year. His motivation is questionable. All that said, the 24-time Grand Slam champion has a decently favorable draw. Certainly the early rounds give Djokovic an opportunity to play himself into match shape. And finally, the medium-to-fast hard court and sea level are some of his most favored conditions. Djokovic has a shot.
To the 2025 Miami Open Preview and Draw Analysis.
Zverev Quarter
World number 2 Alexander Zverev, after early exits from a string of tournaments, admitted he’s not playing with confidence at the moment. One problem is likely the added pressure of trying to pounce on the number 1 ranking while Jannik Sinner serves a suspension. That said, a narrow loss to Tallon Griekspoor at Indian Wells is nothing to be ashamed of, as the Dutch has been playing quality tennis. The upside is more time in Miami to acclimate. I still like the lanky German, particularly on a faster hard court.
I see Zverev getting through Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard’s serve– probably in breakers– and also edging Arthur Fils, who he owns a 3-1 record against. The other area of this quarter could very well feature a re-match of the Indian Wells final with Jack Draper facing Holger Rune. I might give Rune a slight edge in the faster and less bouncy conditions, but due to fatigue, I think Alex can get through either one of them.
Miami Open Preview and Draw Analysis: Taylor Fritz
The 3-seed Taylor Fritz hasn’t been in top form since achieving a career-high ranking. Fritz says he enjoys playing at home– he has a place in Miami– but his record here is only 9-8. Sometimes home can bring distractions, and it’s easier to focus on a boring road trip. Until Fritz shows us he’s back on track, it’s hard to imagine difficult matchups against an in-from Denis Shapovalov, former champion Hubert Hurkacz and/or fast-rising Ben Shelton. I have the lefty Shelton coming through this section.
Young superstars with starkly different games– Fonseca and Tien– meet in a first-round treat. Circle it. I have Fonseca, who just won a Challenger, coming through– barely– with help from a rowdy crowd. But I believe the teen will face a new level of speed and defense if he faces Alex de Minaur. I expect Demon to come through that in straight sets. The Aussie has yet to meet a forehand he can’t drive crazy. I think Andrey Rublev snaps out of his post-Doha championship hangover here in Miami. I have Rublev facing Shelton. That’s anybody’s match, but with a 1-0 H2H, I give the American Shelton the nod on home-court advantage.
Miami Open 2025: Djokovic Quarter
As I alluded to earlier, I believe Djokovic has a shot at the semifinals. That’s partially based on his draw. I think the young Serbian star Hamad Medjedovic is going to be too awed. Alex Michelsen, who lost to Novak in Shanghai last year, has a bit to go before figuring out the GOAT’s tiebreak magic. Felix Auger Aliassime or Lorenzo Musetti could throw an obstacle in Novak’s path, but those guys better step on the gas in fast conditions.
The other part of this section is complicated. Daniil Medvedev won Miami in 2023, and he loves it here. But he’s a little banged up. His average first serve speed is still about 5 mph below his career average. That said, he cracked some serves over 130 mph in Indian Wells. It might be painful, but he’s still capable of doing it. I see Meddy getting by Jiri Lehecka and Stefanos Tsitsipas en route to a potential quarterfinal with Djokovic. I reluctantly go with Medvedev here for one reason. Miami is a quirky spot on the tennis calendar, and most players reliably look past this Masters 1000 toward the long grind of clay season. But for Medvedev, clay is just meh. So he has nothing to look forward to. His happy place is here and now.
Miami Open Preview and Draw Analysis: Carlos Alcaraz Quarter
I see Casper Ruud’s hard court woes continuing with a potential upset at the hands of Miomir Kecmanovic. American Tommy Paul has been playing more error-prone tennis lately, and I see him going down to a match-fit Francisco Cerundolo.
Alcaraz has a fairly straightforward draw. I think he will be motivated after the loss to Draper at Indian Wells. The Spanish-speaking crowds of Miami love the former champion Alcaraz. With an improved serve technique and a whopping 13-3 record in Miami, it’s bienvenidos for Carlitos.
ATP Players To Watch:
QF: Zverev, Shelton, Medvedev, Alcaraz
SF: Zverev, Alcaraz
F: Alcaraz
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2025 WTA Miami Open Preview
Miami brings complications to the women’s tournament. World number 1 Aryna Sabalenka’s game should suit the quick conditions, but consider some other factors. It’s been exactly a year since the death of her ex-boyfriend here in Miami. She has lost difficult finals at the Australian Open and Indian Wells this year that she needs to process. She has to be tired. Despite the seemingly favorable conditions, Sabalenka has never made it out of the quarterfinals in Miami.
Donna Vekic has a surprising 6-2 record vs Sabalenka, and these two power players are in the same area of the draw. Due to the factors mentioned above, I’m going to reluctantly go with an upset. Elena Rybakina anchors this quarter, and I expect her serve to show up.
I have been waiting patiently for Naomi Osaka to break back out, and the time could be now in Miami. She’s certainly familiar and comfortable with the conditions here, and she was angry over what she called her worst match ever in her opening round loss at Indian Wells. I think players like Ons Jabeur, Daria Kasatkina and Jasmine Paolini might be looking ahead to clay. That leaves Coco Gauff, and if a tense battle between Osaka and Gauff were to come to fruition, I don’t trust Gauff’s serve right now. Not until she proves otherwise.
The other side of the draw is more straightforward. I’ve seen enough variety and command from Mirra Andreeva to tip her until she shows me her battery is low. She’s only 17– she can sleep tomorrow. Iga Swiatek, as always, has a forehand that plays on any surface, in any conditions. I think Iga will be hungry to prove she’s not going away and will at least make the semifinals. At minimum.
WTA Players To Watch:
QF: Rybakina, Osaka, Andreeva, Swiatek
SF: Rybakina, Andreeva
F: Andreeva
