Rafael Nadal faces Alexander Zverev in fraught re-match

2024 Roland Garros Draw Preview and Analysis: ATP, WTA

In a shocking development, the Roland Garros draw preview has assembled a first-round rematch of one of the most dramatic moments in the Grand Slam’s 126-year history. King of Clay Rafael Nadal will take on 4th seeded Alexander Zverev, who he met in the semifinals two years ago.

When Nadal and Zverev last played, they were locked in an extremely tight Roland Garros semifinal battle when Zverev suffered a horrendous ankle injury. He was out of tennis for months. Rafa went on to seize his 14th French Open title.

Now they will meet again– of all places– in the first round. Nadal, as great as he is, will be unseeded in the Roland Garros draw preview. His age– almost 38– and his injuries subjected him to the vagaries of a random draw. Zverev has been playing lights out, having just won Rome. Complicating matters further, the German is charged with domestic abuse but does not technically have to appear in court.

The Roland Garros 2024 draw preview holds plenty of other gripping storylines. To the analysis.

Djokovic 2024 Roland Garros Draw Preview

World number one Novak Djokovic faces an uncertain path. With surprise upset losses and a head injury from a fan’s water bottle, Djokovic hasn’t been his usual dominating self. Is age catching up? Is motivation a problem after winning 24 Grand Slams? Well he was motivated enough to grab a wild card in Geneva this week and is showing signs of shoring up his game.

Djokovic faces Pierre-Hugues Herbert in the first round, and in fact has a few Frenchmen in his immediate area including Constant Lestienne and Gael Monfils. How will the Paris crowd greet Novak?

If he doesn’t end up playing Monfils, he could get giant killer Thiago Seyboth Wild, a tricky opponent who sometimes presents as Roger Federer gone bad. In the round of 16, it gets really dangerous. American Tommy Paul, a junior champion here, has been playing brilliantly on clay, having just made the Rome semis. Paul is my dark horse to emerge, if not my horse.

If he can get through all that, Djokovic could play clay court guru Casper Ruud. However, Novak catches a break in that Ruud has been severely out of form.

Nadal/Zverev Quarter

The winner of the Rafa-Sascha match could win the quarter, but a handful of other quality contenders exist. Karen Khachanov holds a stellar 21-7 record at RG. Holger Rune and Daniil Medvedev could also find their footing in this part of the draw. It won’t be easy.

In the other half of the Roland Garros 2024 draw preview, world number three Carlos Alcaraz headlines a quarter filled with fit young stars. Alcaraz has been a real question mark with his injured right forearm. While he’s been working out in Paris, a best-of-five tournament on clay is not the place to rehab from an injury. Given his tendency to cramp and his so few matches this clay season, I can’t tip Carlitos for the semifinals right now.

Felix Auger-Aliassime, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev all have turned in solid performances this clay season. In particular, Tstitsipas has looked fit and injury-free, using his favored surface to handle a barrage of shots to his one-handed backhand. A former finalist here, Stef’s 22-7 record is nothing to take for granted. I would go ahead and pencil in a Round of 16 match for Tsitsipas against Rublev, and it could go five.

The final quarter on the Roland Garros draw preview is wide open. 2-seed Jannik Sinner has been battling a hip injury and considered not playing in Paris. Again, if you’re hurting, Roland Garros is not ideal. While I’m sure even an injured Sinner can get past Chris Eubanks, Borna Coric and even the winner of the vaunted Andy Murray vs. Stan Wawrinka match, I’m not sure if he can get past Rome standout Nicolas Jarry because Sebastian Baez might have worn him out.

Breakout Chilean star Alejandro Tabilo and Hubert Hurkcacz also make this quarter compelling.

Players to Watch:
SF: Djokovic, Nadal, Tsitsipas, Jarry
QF: Djokovic, Tsitsipas
W: Tsitsipas

Roland Garros Draw Preview: Women

Talk of a new Big 3 on the women’s side has proven very premature. First of all, there’s real question as to who would be the third player, Elena Rybakina or Coco Gauff.

Secondly, with dominating records against both Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka, it is Iga Swiatek who clearly wears the crown in women’s tennis at the moment. It’s a Big One.

There’s death, taxes and Coco Gauff landing in Iga’s half of a tournament draw. Ten out of the eleven times that Swiatek and Gauff have played, they have been on the same side or group of the draw. That’s strikingly unlucky for Gauff, who has only beated Iga once.

In addition, the 3-seed Gauff, who has been struggling with double faults, has a complicated draw. Former champion Jelena Ostapenko, Ons Jabeaur and Frenchwoman Caroline Garcia all stand in her way. Still, until she hits Iga, she does have a fighting chance.

Rybakina headlines the 3rd quarter with no one to stand in her way until Elina Svitona. The Ukrainian held match points against Sabalenka in Rome and came a too-sharply-cut drop shot away from the final. Rybakina has a final and a title this clay season. She skipped Rome, so she’s rested. I think that’s a good thing.
Sabalenka takes her usual perch as the anchor of the bottom half of the Roland Garros draw preview. She’s got no real competition until the quarterfinal because of the phenomenal tennis she’s been treating the world to. Maria Sakkari sits atop this section, but Sabalenka is too mentally seasoned at this point.

Players to Watch:
QF: Swiatek, Gauff, Rybakina, Sabalenka
SF: Swiatek, Rybakina
F: Swiatek