2026 Madrid Open Draw Preview and Analysis
The distance between Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz looks to grow even greater as the 2026 Madrid Open Draw Preview and Analysis projects the world number one to plateau far above the rest of the field. Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic sit out Madrid this year with injuries. It’s an understandable choice, but Sinner is starting to run away with gobs of points.
The players landing in Sinner’s quarter are deeply unlucky because the rest of the draw is wide open with a great chance for a deep run.
The women’s side is considerably more interesting in Madrid this year, with Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina both in the mix.
A note about conditions in Madrid. Powerful servers fare much better here than on other clay surfaces because of the city’s 667 meters (2,188 feet) of altitude above sea level. Players with inconsistent forehands see balls fly. Tense or uncommitted strokes don’t work in Madrid. The ultimate forehand disciplinarian Casper Ruud is the defending champion here.
To the 2026 Madrid Open draw preview and analysis:
Jannik Sinner Quarter
The Italian’s section is filled with a roster of fun, notable players for sure– just no one who has a winning record against him. Last year’s quarterfinalist Gabriel Diallo is a tall player with a big serve who won’t be as bothered by a high bounce, but the young Canadian is inconsistent. American Tommy Paul has a 1-4 H2H against Sinner, and they did play to 3 sets in Madrid back in 2022. But these guys are different now. Sinner’s serve has launched into a new stratosphere. Other interesting players in this section include 2024 champion Andrey Rublev, Arthur Rinderknech and Joao Fonseca.
The next-highest seed here is Alex De Minaur, who has never beaten Sinner in 13 tries. His career record in Madrid is 6-6. I’m surprised it’s that good because these conditions would seem to be the Aussie’s worst nightmare. Look for a possible early upset at the hands of Madrid native Rafael Jodar, a young player rising rapidly.
2026 Madrid Open: Ben Shelton Quarter
Coming off a title at the BMW Open in Munich, Shelton carries momentum into the 2026 Madrid Open draw preview. He beat Flavio Cobolli and Fonseca to get there. I would think the lefty’s massive kick serve would spin gold in Madrid, but his career record here is only 2-3. I never feel players with deep runs the week prior in this city because of the altitude adjustment. Arthur Fils, also in this section, has the same problem having just won in Barcelona. Valentin Vacherot or Jack Draper are candidates to come through this section if they are healthy, but the consistent Jiri Lehecka is more likely. Certainly not Lorenzo Musetti with those high balls to the one-handed backhand.
Felix Auger Aliassime Quarter
It has to feel satisfying for the Canadian to head up his own section of this 2026 Madrid Open draw. Auger Aliassime is finally playing the best tennis of his career. His game style should suit this tournament, and he made a run to the final in 2024 where he lost to Andrey Rublev.
Ruud also lives in this section, but the next-highest seed and a player I love in these conditions is Alexander Bublik. His fast serve and height play well in the Caja Magica, but let’s just see what kind of mood he’s in.
2026 Madrid Open Draw Preview: Alexander Zverev
Zverev’s early exit in Munich last week might have given him a chance to get to Madrid early for a few extra days of altitude adjustment. The German has amassed a sterling 25-6 record in Madrid, including two titles. He’s serving even better now. In his draw, Jakub Mensik is a player who might take a set from him. Other than that, only Daniil Medvedev stands as a real threat. “Clayvedev” plays decently here. Meddy and Sascha have met ten times in Masters 1000 events. Daniil famously has a crushing 14-8 record against Zverev. I think Alex is just a bit too comfortable in Madrid.
Players to watch coming through:
QF: Sinner, Lehecka, Bublik, Zverev
SF: Sinner, Zverev
F: Sinner
Madrid Open Draw Preview and Analysis: WTA
The women’s Madrid draw can be summed up thusly: Two easy quarters, one mystery section and one quarter from hell. World number one and two Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina, perhaps deservedly, have landed in sections of this draw with little meaningful competition.
Let’s take a glance at Sabalenka’s draw. Eighth seed Jasmine Paolini has been in a slump for months, including an opening round crushing by Zeynep Sonmez last week. Clay is not 11-seed Belinda Bencic’s best surface. And the 14th-seeded Naomi Osaka has questioned her commitment to playing tennis at all. These are some of Sabalenka’s possible opponents.
Similarly Rybakina, who drove away with the Porsche last week in Stuttgart, gets seeds like Amanda Anisimova. The American has not regained her stellar form of 2025 and split with her coach 3 weeks ago. Madison Keys and Jelena Ostapenko could meet in a potentially fun tilt, but Rybakina would only have to face one of them. The 32-seed Qinwen Zheng hasn’t fully recaptured her best tennis after surgery. It’s hard not to pick Rybakina to glide through this quarter.
The mystery section includes Americans Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula. Reigning Roland Garros champion Gauff is a stellar clay player, but Madrid is unique. Nobody knows whether Coco’s Dr. Jekyll serve or Mr. Hyde serve will show up. Pegula is a flat ball striker, which can go awry in the Madrid altitude. I like a big server like Victoria Mboko for Madrid’s conditions, and Vicky can certainly put heavy top on her forehand when necessary. Mboko would have a tough road, potentially facing Clara Tauson and either Kostyuk or Pegula, however. A very hard-to-predict section here.
Finally, the toughest area of the Madrid Open Draw Preview and Analysis: The Iga Swiatek quarter. The tropes around Swiatek’s 2026 struggles are as well-worn as the red clay: A coaching change, some mental anguish and poor results– at least by her standards. Players in this quarter include: Hometown girl Paula Badosa, who is unseeded, up-and-coming star Iva Jovic, Mirra Andreeva and never-quit Elina Svitolina. My final four from this section include Iga, Iva, Mirra and Elina. Pick your player to emerge. I’ll go with Andreeva based solely on serve, particularly her second. Swiatek obviously doesn’t get the purchase other players do in Madrid with her service game in its current shape.
A final note: As on the men’s side, a handful of players have withdrawn from Madrid for what seems to be load management, including Karolina Muchova and Emma Raducanu. I would argue this is a smart play, given that conditions in Madrid are unlike any of the other clay season stops. If you have to skip one, it’s not like this is going to prep you perfectly for Roland Garros.
My players to watch coming through:
QF: Sabalenka, Andreeva, Mboko, Rybakina
SF: Sabalenka, Rybakina
F: Rybakina
