Welcome to Tennis Elbow, the column that looks back on the week that was in the world of tennis. This week, Charles Blouin-Gascon wonders which player might make it back to the top of the mountaintop in 2019.
The 2018 season should be remembered as one where the top of the men’s singles rankings was a revolving door between a small handful of players.
One constant, though? The omnipresence of the usual suspects Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, who together combined to occupy the very first spot every single week of the year. (And for a much longer time than this of course, but that’s a debate for another day.)
Though again that oversimplifies things: Nadal has been largely a non factor since the summer, or about the time where Djokovic overtook any every challenger on his way to the top of the mountaintop. Federer, throughout, has remained steadfastly Federer-like: a force to reckon with, but also one that can’t really last a full 12 months.
That said, we’ll take this relative downtime in the tennis calendar to examine a few themes and look ahead at the 2019 season. We’re starting today with a look at the three (likely) pretenders to the ATP World Tour throne and what each needs to accomplish next year to overcome the others.
NOVAK DJOKOVIC
What must he do?
The Serb would do well to capitalize on the momentum he’s acquired since winning Wimbledon this summer, right away at the Australian Open too, because he’ll have about a trillion points to defend next fall. If he can bank a few events early in the year, then manage a rough approximation of his 2018 run, he’ll be fine.
Why it will happen:
Djokovic’s domination at the Australian Open is relatively underrated, because he’s undeniably compared to Nadal’s run at the French Open, or Federer’s own at Wimbledon—and yet, the Djoker is definitely comparable to the Swiss. Don’t be surprised to see him get in the winner’s circle again in Melbourne.
Why it won’t happen:
Well, because Djokovic went 39-4, with four titles, after his quarterfinals loss at Roland-Garros in 2018. Good luck trying to replicate that.
ROGER FEDERER
What must he do?
Take full advantage of his capacity, as an elder statesman on tour, to pick and choose the tournaments he does want to enter and when, thereby maximizing the odds of managing good results at the events he does compete in.
Why it will happen:
The Swiss is apparently a marvel of nature who ages ever so slightly and slowly, so he should be fine again in 2019. And even when signs say that he’s lost a step, he was always so far ahead of just about everyone that his decrease in ability doesn’t matter.
Why it won’t happen:
Yeah, about that decrease in ability…The fact remains that at the biggest events in the world, the ones where everyone is competing at their best, Federer just doesn’t have the form, stamina, competence to pull off the biggest wins. More often than not, but for a short period to start the 2018 season, Federer has lost matches against the best players in the world. The days of him rampaging through Grand Slam draws regardless of opponents are over: Federer needs help. Which, again, isn’t surprising for a 37-year-old.
RAFAEL NADAL
What must he do?
In order to reach the No. 1 ranking once more, Nadal must stay healthy. That’s really about it: so long as he’s healthy, the Spaniard will be a tough out and can rely on his run through the clay court season and at the French Open to power the rest of his season.
Why it will happen:
Until proven otherwise, we’ll never bet against Nadal on clay.
Why it won’t happen:
Asking for Nadal to remain healthy for a full 12 months is basically a mission: impossible these days. Since the 2011 season, the 32-year-old has abandoned before the end of the tennis calendar every other year. The good news is that if he keeps this up, having shelved it after the US Open this summer, this upcoming season should be a good one.
Let’s keep this one going with a look at the most promising youngster in men’s tennis.
BONUS: ALEXANDER ZVEREV
What must he do?
To put it simply: he must play at every Grand Slam tournament just like he did at the ATP Nitto Finals. Over and over and over and over again. No big deal.
Why it will happen:
We have yet to see the German replicate this level of play over a long period of time, so we’ll believe it when we see it.
Why it won’t happen:
It probably won’t?
Follow Charles Blouin-Gascon on Twitter @RealCBG
