US Open 2026 Draw Preview and Analysis: ATP, WTA Predictions
Unknowns waft over the US Open 2026 draw preview and analysis, starting with the health statuses of Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic. The women’s side is a wide open draw with an out-of-form Aryna Sabalenka as a tenuous favorite.
Alcaraz hasn’t played singles in four months with a wrist injury, and his serve looked subpar when he competed in the US Open mixed doubles with Serena Williams. Was Alcaraz taking something off to protect his wrist, or is he planning on competing with a first serve speed of 115 mph?
Djokovic has been nursing an undisclosed illness he says gets worse in severe humidity. Fortunately for him, the New York forecast looks temperate for the next two weeks without any major heat waves. In fact, showers and storms might see the Ashe roof closed, which benefits Novak.
Plenty of American players have a legitimate shot at winning their home slam. More on that below. To the US Open 2026 draw preview and analysis.
US Open 2026: Alexander Zverev
The top seed, this year’s Roland Garros champion Alexander Zverev appears well-positioned for a deep run in New York. That said, I find his quarter complicated by two players: Lorenzo Musetti and Rafael Jodar.
Musetti has a 3-2 H2H against Zverev. With Lorenzo’s one-handed backhand and Alex’s less-reliable forehand, extended baseline rallies often involve the high side of the next. While I like Musetti’s mix of spins and improvisation on the backhand wing, Zverev’s serve can take him out of the point before it even gets going. That’s especially true on a hard court.
Zverev beat Jodar en route to his maiden Grand Slam this year, but the Spaniard claims his best surface is hard court. I think this potential quarterfinal would be a longer match, perhaps five sets.
Elsewhere in this quarter, Casper Ruud and Alex De Minaur are slightly off their best at the moment.
US Open Draw Preview and Analysis: Felix Auger Aliassime
Firstly, this section could feature an interesting rematch of the retiring Gael Monfils and the young spark plug Learner Tien. Just a few weeks ago in Canada, Tien won a set-seesaw match. I would expect this one to be more entertaining, since it’s Gael’s final Grand Slam. I have Learner coming through barely in a night match.
As for Auger Aliassime, I’m not thrilled with him having to face what I see as the winner of Tien and Jakub Mensik. The Czech looks fit and relaxed right now, already having won the Mixed Doubles. FAA should shine here, but I sense he’s dealing with injury having pulled out of his native Canada a few weeks ago.
In the bottom of this section, I’m reluctantly shorting Taylor Fritz based on a lack of form. I have Tien meeting Flavio Cobolli in a potential quarterfinal. Admittedly I could be way off here, but I envision a tournament where the more casual-to-tennis sports world gets introduced to Learner.
Novak Djokovic: 2026 US Open Prospects
To me, this section of the draw, with Djokovic as a 4-seed, is the most dramatic. Let’s start at the bottom of this section, 2016 US Open champion Stan Wawrinka nabbed a last-minute wild card and unbelievably drew Matteo Berrettini– the same guy he played to 4 incredible sets in the open round of Wimbledon this year. What are the chances? (Berrettini won 6-7, 7-6, 7-6, 7-6). If I must, I’ll pick Berrettini again. Either way, Novak is potentially sitting there waiting in round 2.
Stan, of course, is 2-0 against Djokovic in Grand Slam finals. It would be a full-circe way for Wawrinka to end a Grand Slam career, win or lose. If Djokovic plays Berrettini, Novak has a 4-1 record against him including a Wimbledon final. I have to pick Novak here unless I’m told he’s severely ailing. I have him going all the way to the quarters, with a possible meeting with Frances Tiafoe.
This could be Tiafoe’s time. He made the final of Cincy, rebounding from a procedure to remove a cyst from his wrist. More importantly, his headspace is chill.
Brandon Nakashima is my dangerous floater and second-choice pick to win the quarter. A perennial Top 10 server on the ATP Tour, Brandon is now finally doing more with his returns.
Carlos Alcaraz: 2026 US Open Draw Preview and Analysis
I don’t think Carlos is there yet. Why? Watching him in the mixed with Serena, I noticed a reticence to poach. You might argue with me and say what does poaching in doubles have to do with singles, where baseline play dominates? Answer: It’s a tell about confidence.
Alcaraz’s serve speeds were down. While it’s likely he was holding back, I doubt it was 10 mph holding back. I don’t see Alcaraz getting past a potential match with Tommy Paul in Round 4. Honestly, I hope I’m wrong about his form because the world is just a better place when Alcaraz is playing well.
Elsewhere in this section, circle potential Round 3 rematches involving Jiri Lehecka and Arthur Fils (Cincinnati) and Alexander Bublik and Tommy Paul (2025 US Open). My picks: Fils and Paul.
Canada champion Ben Shelton has a manageable draw. Is the lefty ready to take New York? At 23, he’s matured. His shot selection has improved without sacrificing grit or feistiness. He’s #3 in serving and #74 in returning on tour. If he makes it out of the quarter, he’ll have to win breakers. His year-to-date tiebreak record of 65% is a full 10 percentage points above his career average. That tells me things are trending way up.
My players to watch coming through:
QF: Zverev, Tien, Tiafoe, Shelton
SF: Zverev, Shelton
F: Shelton
US Open 2026 Draw Preview and Analysis: WTA
While world number one Aryna Sabalenka appears in a good mood, her play has been sporadic. She’s been missing groundies long. Still, as a two-time champion here who relishes the spotlight, she’ll calibrate the forehand. If she can focus enough to get through a potential meeting with two-time Grand Slam champion Barbora Krejcikova in a possible round 3 match, I see her meeting Marta Kostyuk in the quarterfinals, where she’ll slightly outhit the Ukranian.
In the bottom half of this side, the three players I like are Jessica Pegula, Elina Svitolina and Karolina Muchova. I’ve looked at all the H2H, and Pegula has the edge. I also admire Jessie’s wherewithal in Ashe, particularly during loud, buzzy night matches.
On the other side, the rapidly-gaining-in-swagger Coco Gauff has a quarter I like very much for her. Gauff has dramatically reduced her double faults in the past six months. Alex Eala would be a fun and tough match as a potential Round 4, but I favor Coco’s ability to neutralize the Eala return. Expect 3 sets if that happens. Elsewhere in this area of the draw, I have Amanda Anisimova over Mirra Andreeva.
And the final section of this draw features the enigmatic 2 seed Elena Rybakina, who has been injured and spotty in form. My quarterfinal features a lightning hot Iga Swiatek facing 2-time US Open champion Naomi Osaka. Iga holds a 3-1 H2H, and Naomi hasn’t figured out how to manage Iga’s heavy forehand in quite some time.
My players to watch coming through:
QF: Sabalenka, Pegula, Gauff, Swiatek
SF: Sabalenka, Gauff
F: Gauff
