2026 Men’s and Women’s Australian Open Draw Preview and Analysis
This year’s Australian Open 2026 Draw Preview and Analysis is brimming with nostalgia, injury questions and coaching intrigue along with the usual pizazz accompanying Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic.
The women’s draw is shaped by definitive and intense new rivalries surrounding players like Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff, Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina.
Some players have announced that this year’s Australian Open will be their last, like 2014 Champion Stan Wawrinka and Gael Monfils. For other players, this, in varying levels of likelihood, might be their last AO– like Venus Williams, Grigor Dimitrov and yes– who knows– even Djokovic.
Brilliant young talents like Joao Fonseca, Learner Tien, Victoria Mboko and Iva Jovic look to open their 2026 campaign with continued drive.
To the Australian Open 2026 Draw Preview and Analysis.
AO 2026: Carlos Alcaraz
World number one Alcaraz seeks his first Australian Open title to complete a career quadruple crown. But he begins the year surrounded by controversy. The six-time Grand Slam champ essentially dumped his longtime coach, who helped him win all those titles. Juan Carlos Ferrero was handed an untenable contract with no room for negotiation, a bind that put the Spaniard out of the Alcaraz camp. How Carlitos will react to this jarring change will tell us loads about his maturity both as a player and as a person. Sneak peak into my feelings on this: Alcaraz has always been an old soul– a throwback who’s wise beyond his years. He tends to work stuff out.
In addition, Alcaraz continues to workshop technical changes on his serve, as well as new patterns and tactics. Always the dynamo is Alcaraz.
The Alcaraz draw is extremely tenable. Possible opponents include Tommy Paul, who is only now returning from a long hiatus. Alcaraz buddy Alejandro Davidovich Fokina played himself into a pulp last year and got married– it’s miles on the tires, plus he’s never beaten Carlos.
Newly minted Top 10’er Alexander Bublik could present a problem, but he’d have to get by Aussie Alex De Minaur. Demon had not looked super fresh so far, and this is a tough draw starting with Matteo Berrettini. I worry about that guy’s mental stamina. I could see a Bublik-Demon match going 5.
Bottom line: I would take Alcaraz over any of these characters anyway, even with the coaching uncertainty.
Australian Open 2026 Draw Preview and Analysis: Alexander Zverev
Last year’s AO finalist Zverev is one of the few players who seems healthy, relaxed and rested. His draw is not great in the early going, as he might face Gabriel Diallo and Alexei Popyrin back-to-back. These are lanky, big serving, very similar players who can get hot, especially Pop playing at home.
I still favor Sascha to come through all that, Cameron Norrie and Andrey Rublev before a potential matchup with last year’s sentimental darling Felix Auger Aliassime. The much-improved Canadian has beaten Zverev in their last 2 meetings, both on hard court. I like that trend. The FAA serve has sizzle, and the spraying-type errors have been quelled.
Incidentally, this quarter could feature a Round of 32 bonanza of matches that might be the ticket of the tournament. I project Zverev vs Norrie, Francisco Cerundolo vs Rublev, Daniil Medvedev vs Arthur Rinderknech and Tien vs FAA. That’s an overflowing sleeve of popcorn right there. Don’t get any on the floor.
Novak Djokovic
Djokovic seems to be tunneling his attention toward capturing a 25th Grand Slam. He has withdrawn from the PTPA, winnowed his coaching ranks and streamlined his schedule. He’s light and fleet. I like his draw. Pedro Martinez, Terence Atmane and Brandon Nakashima are either out of his league, idolize him or both. Giant killer Hubert Hurkacz seems healthy but notably lost to Novak late last year in the Geneva final. That takes his overall H2H against the GOAT to 0-8.
At the top of this section, Lorenzo Musetti, Grigor Dimitrov, Jiri Lehecka and Taylor Fritz are the four wounded horsemen, having retired from recent competitions or complained of nagging injuries. I tentatively have Djokovic facing Musetti, who has a hip problem. Not ideal when facing Novak. It could just as easily be Lorenzo Sonego. You can see why I favor a healthy GOAT in this quarter.
Jannik Sinner: Australian Open Draw Preview and Analysis
In my opinion, the defending champion has the easiest draw of the top 4 seeds. In this quarter, I can envision Ben Shelton making a solid run– only to slam into Sinner in the quarterfinal. The American might have to get through Monfils and Valentin Vacherot.
Elsewhere in this section, Casper Ruud is expecting a child at any moment, Denis Shapovalov can get hot but just as easily can be rushed on his backhand if the surface is fast. Karen Khachanov has a shot to at least take a set off Sinner if they meet. And circle a potential Round of 32 match between Sinner and Fonseca for entertainment value. If the Brazilian could somehow pull an upset the world #2, that would turn the few remaining Fonseca skeptics into true believers. But he’d have to redline his bomb forehand and come forward with abandon.
My players to watch:
Coming through–
QF: Alcaraz, Auger Aliassime, Djokovic, Sinner
SF: Alcaraz, Sinner
F: Sinner
2026 Australian Open: Women’s Preview
One particular section of this draw is not like the others. It’s so hard, it should be illegal. Let’s start there. How would you like to land in a quarter with Swiatek, Elena Rybakina, Belinda Bencic and 2-time AO Champ Naomi Osaka? That’s tough surfing down under. Because of the difficulty of the draw, I don’t think this is Iga’s time to grab her elusive Australian Open title. I have Osaka upsetting her, but that’s without much of a feel for Naomi’s form because she’s getting over a virus.
I see Rybakina having some breezy, straight set matches until she meets Bencic. The Swiss has a 2-1 H2H over Elena, but those two wins were dogfights. If Elena can somehow sail through this, I see her very much contending for the title. A note about Rybakina, she of elite serve and forehand: I believe the tiger’s tail has been pulled by the tennis establishment. Tigers don’t like that. We’ve all seen what Rybakina is capable of when she’s annoyed. Growl.
Four-seed Amanda Anisimova has certainly earned her seat atop a quarter with stellar play last year on all surfaces. I have Jessica Pegula knocking off defending champ Madison Keys and Amanda over Jess in 3 tough sets due to the speed of her serve on a fast surface in warm conditions. If it’s a cool day, windy or unknown factors complicate the matchup, I’d change my pick to Pegula.
Looking at the other half of the draw, Coco Gauff continues to work through her serving changes, with mixed results. She basically carried Fritz in the United Cup and got plenty of reps. She has drawn Marketa Vondrousova and Karolina Muchova, two exceptional players known for their variety and creativity. But trackstar speed beats creativity almost everytime, and Coco is a combined 7-0 against those ladies. It’s actually crazy, the dominance.
This section also features two scrappy fighters in Elina Svitolina and MIrra Andreeva. I have Svitolina for sentimental reasons, but if Andreeva’s emotional management is in check, nobody can touch her.
In the final quarter, 2-time Australian Open champion and world number one Sabalenka should sail. I like a potential Round of 16 matchup with Victoria Mboko, but the youngster has so much to learn about Grand Slam tennis. Another high seed is Paolini, but this isn’t her surface. I have Sabalenka over Ekaterina Alexandrova in the quarters.
My players to watch:
Coming through–
QF: Sabalenka, Gauff, Anisimova, Rybakina
SF: Sabalenka, Rybakina
F: Rybakina
