2025 ATP Predictions and Projected Top 10
What Happens to Djokovic, Sinner and Alcaraz
Ring the bells for 2025 ATP Predictions, including the ATP Top 10 and other thoughts on where the sport is headed. My odds-and-ends for WTA events were almost uncanny in their fruition, even if my Top 10 was slightly off.
Before I look ahead to 2025 ATP Predictions, let’s see how I did with my men’s predictions for this past year. You need to know if the person predicting has a shred of credibility, after all.
What I Got Wrong
The main targets I missed involved picking players to finish Top 10 who finished just below that. In tennis we call that a “good miss.” For example, I picked Tommy Paul to finish #9. Someone on X scoffed at me for that pick. But Paul made great strides in 2024, won Queen’s, finished with a career-high rank of #12 and even had a shot at Turin in the closing days.
Similarly, I picked Arthur Fils, Nicolas Jarry and Ben Shelton to finish in the Top 10. Perhaps a bit too bold, but all these men achieved career high rankings in 2024 and are quality players for whom a future Top 10 finish is certainly within reach. Jarry finished #35, and that was probably the biggest miss. Not egregious on my part, though.
I wrote, “Generally, I think this is the year that the young ones break out and move up. My crystal ball says this time next year reveals a vastly different ATP Top 10 with a rosy, youthful complexion.” 33-year-old Grigor Dimitrov finished #10. That ruined my prediction, because the average age of the Top 10 actually increased. I couldn’t be happier. Grigor put in the hard yards and very much deserves his success.
Finally, I picked Novak Djokovic to finish #1 again. The GOAT captured his longed-for Olympic Gold Medal, and that was far more important for his legacy than another #1 finish.
What I Got Correct
I picked Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev to finish in the Top 10. They did. About Zverev, in particular, I wrote, “If he keeps serving troubles at bay, he should hit his stride in terms of his career arc.” Pretty spot-on.
I did not pick Stefanos Tsitsipas or Hubert Hurkacz to finish in the Top 10. Correct there, and Stef is going to need to make some chess moves to keep up with the younger players on his heels. A plan for the backhand, for example, and maybe something surface-specific.
I did not pick Andrey Rublev to finish in the ATP Top 10 — while he did in fact finish #8– he compiled points the hard way. Rublev played 27 tournaments in 2024, including a grinding 7 post-US Open. Compare that with Casper Ruud, who finished #6 and only played 25. And if you want peak efficiency, Djokovic finished #7 and only played 12 tournaments. I think I was right about Rublev’s trajectory. The very quality that makes Andrey so great– his dogged stubbornness– might be keeping him from: (1) addressing his painful, self-directed anger and (2) expanding aspects of his playing style.
2025 ATP Predictions and Projected Top 10
- Jannik Sinner
- Carlos Alcaraz
- Taylor Fritz
- Alexander Zverev
- Ben Shelton
- Casper Ruud
- Daniil Medvedev
- Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
- Novak Djokovic
- Arthur Fils
As well as Sinner is playing– even in the face of stress and controversy– there’s a decent chance he could vie for the calendar Grand Slam in 2025. Don’t bet against that. His combination of elite defending and powerful groundstrokes make him a contender on all surfaces.
Alcaraz still has magic, energy and the most complete game in tennis today. His challenge will be not overplaying and not chasing legends. Part of me feels like we still don’t fully know who Alcaraz is– both as a player and a person. 2025 should reveal more.
Fritz made me look bad with my picks last year. He made the US Open and ATP Finals, reaching new heights. Unlike Alcaraz, we started to understand this player better in 2024. His mental game is top flight, and he’s far from simply a serve-bot. He’s not even Top 5 in most serve categories, which means he’s finding other ways to win. Fritz will need to take a scalpel to his schedule to precisely carve out what’s best to keep him fresh. He’ll also need to press into the front court more often. He’s got the height and the mental openness to do it.
With his legal problems finally settled, Zverev is free to focus on his continued upward growth. Everything, including his tour-best serve, is headed in the right direction. A Slam is very possible in 2025.
Shelton is a player steeped in confidence who had a few grounding losses late in 2024, including at the Davis Cup. You can’t argue with Ben’s youth and lefty serve, however. He currently stands at #4 on tour in percentage of service games won. It’s hard to break that serve. I think he’ll attain more balance in 2025 as he learns to reel in the errors.
Ruud is the man of steady habits, and that’s a great way to be in this sport. Fans and experts will sell the 25-year-old Norwegian short, but his ability to consistently press ahead means he’ll always be a factor in the final arguments of tournaments. He’s one of the most efficient movers on tour.
Do not sleep on Medvedev. His serve struggles have been well documented in 2024, but he’s #2 in percentage of break points converted. He’s served well in years past, so it’s likely that injury is dragging him down. Even with his serve metrics bottoming out, he still finished Top 5. He’s simply a feisty character. I would never dream of pulling him from my Top 10.
Mpetshi Perricard brings the excitement with his otherworldly serve, but he’s among the tour leaders in percentage of double faults per match. Once that is tamed, he’ll need to figure out what to do about his liability: The wild one-handed backhand. His forehand will propel him into the ATP Top 10, I believe.
With Andy Murray joining the team, I believe Djokovic will maintain his ability to show up and win. I just don’t think he’ll play that much. Certainly we can look forward to some strong runs at the Grand Slams. 2025’s biggest thrill could be discovering how Novak changes his tactical game to stay one chess move ahead of his younger rivals.
I’m doubling down on Fils and picking him for the ATP Top 10 again. He’s an explosive mover, who the ATP counts as #12 on its “under pressure” metric. That’s significantly higher than he lands in the traditional serve and return categories, which means he plays his absolute best on the big points.
The Big Picture
As for miscellaneous 2025 ATP Predictions:
The huge controversy over use of different tennis balls will reach a fevered crescendo, but nothing will get done about it. The ATP is locked in contracts with its sponsors, and money rules.
Gabriel Diallo will make big strides and give Canada big hope for the future.
American men’s tennis will enjoy a renaissance in both rankings and quality not seen in decades.
A player in his 20s will unofficially retire, while a player in his 30s who is expected to retire will not.
A tennis power couple will get engaged. (That could include 2 players and/or a player and a tennis influencer.)
The country of Australia will fend off the Saudis and keep its swing and its Slam exactly where it is on the calendar, to much applause.
On the other hand, expect the announcement of a significant change to the ATP calendar, possibly involving a Masters 1000-level event.
Wishing you a peaceful holiday season and blissful 2025, tennis fans.
