BNP Paribas Open Match Preview: Shapovalov vs Tsitsipas, Andreescu vs Rakhimova & Berrettini in Action

BNP Paribas Open 2026 – Match Preview for Wednesday, March 4

The opening rounds of the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells always deliver intriguing matchups, and Wednesday’s slate features a mix of star power, comeback stories, and tricky veteran matchups. With the tournament often referred to as the “fifth Grand Slam,” every early-round clash carries significance as players look to build momentum during the Sunshine Double.

Below is a detailed preview of three matches to watch on March 4, 2026: Denis Shapovalov vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas, Bianca Andreescu vs. Kamilla Rakhimova, and Matteo Berrettini vs. Adrian Mannarino.

Denis Shapovalov vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas – Rivalry Renewed in Tennis Paradise

Two of the most explosive shot-makers on the ATP Tour collide early in Indian Wells when Denis Shapovalov meets Stefanos Tsitsipas. It’s a matchup that has produced dramatic rallies, emotional swings, and high-level shot-making whenever the pair meet.

Head-to-Head:
https://www.atptour.com/en/players/atp-head-2-head/stefanos-tsitsipas-vs-denis-shapovalov/te51/su55

Historically, the rivalry has tilted toward the Canadian. Shapovalov leads the head-to-head 4–2 overall and is undefeated against Tsitsipas on outdoor hard courts, a notable statistic considering the conditions at Indian Wells.

The last time they met was at the 2024 Miami Open, where Shapovalov controlled the match with aggressive baseline play, winning in straight sets.

What to Watch

Shapovalov thrives when he’s dictating with his left-handed forehand and jumping on second serves. The slower hard courts at Indian Wells can also reward his ability to create angles and heavy topspin.

Tsitsipas, meanwhile, arrives with a point to prove. His one-handed backhand remains one of the most aesthetically pleasing shots in tennis, but he’ll need to handle Shapovalov’s pace and avoid getting dragged into chaotic baseline exchanges.

Tactical Edge

If Tsitsipas can extend rallies and attack the Shapovalov backhand under pressure, he may finally flip the hard-court narrative in this rivalry. But if the Canadian finds his rhythm early, the matchup could again favor his aggressive game.

Prediction: Shapovalov in three sets.

Bianca Andreescu vs. Kamilla Rakhimova – Canadian Star Seeks Momentum

Canadian tennis fans will be watching closely as Bianca Andreescu returns to Indian Wells, the site of her breakthrough triumph in 2019. Facing her in the opening round is Russia’s Kamilla Rakhimova, a rising player capable of grinding out long baseline battles.

Head-to-Head:
https://www.wtatennis.com/head-to-head/325088/325936

Andreescu’s recent form has been encouraging. Over the past year she has maintained a winning record above 60% on tour, demonstrating that when healthy she remains one of the most versatile players in the women’s game.

What to Watch

Andreescu’s game is built on variety: sliced backhands, sudden drop shots, and an ability to redirect pace with ease. On the slower Indian Wells surface, that variety becomes even more dangerous.

Rakhimova, however, is comfortable in physical matches. Her consistency from the baseline and ability to counterpunch could test Andreescu’s patience if rallies become extended.

Tactical Edge

The key for Andreescu will be controlling tempo. If she mixes pace and moves forward effectively, she can disrupt Rakhimova’s rhythm and shorten points.

Prediction: Andreescu in straight sets.

Matteo Berrettini vs. Adrian Mannarino – Power vs. Precision

A classic contrast in styles takes center stage when Matteo Berrettini meets French veteran Adrian Mannarino.

Head-to-Head:
https://www.atptour.com/en/players/atp-head-2-head/matteo-berrettini-vs-adrian-mannarino/bk40/me82

Despite Berrettini’s status as a former Wimbledon finalist and one of the tour’s biggest servers, Mannarino has historically had the upper hand in this matchup. The Frenchman leads the head-to-head 2–0, including a tight straight-sets win in Shanghai in 2025.

What to Watch

Berrettini’s game revolves around his massive serve and devastating forehand. If he’s landing first serves consistently, he can dominate short points and dictate play.

Mannarino, however, is known for his flat, low-skidding strokes and ability to absorb power. His unconventional timing often disrupts big hitters, making him a tricky opponent for aggressive players.

Tactical Edge

The Italian must avoid extended baseline exchanges and focus on attacking early in rallies. Mannarino will try to stretch the court, neutralize Berrettini’s forehand, and capitalize on any second-serve opportunities.

Prediction: Berrettini in three tight sets.

Final Thoughts

The first round of the BNP Paribas Open rarely lacks drama, and Wednesday’s matches should deliver compelling storylines:

• A dynamic rivalry between Shapovalov and Tsitsipas

• A home-crowd favorite in Bianca Andreescu seeking another Indian Wells run

• A fascinating style clash between Berrettini and Mannarino

With the desert sun setting over Tennis Paradise, these early contests could set the tone for the rest of the tournament.

Stream BNP Paribas Open action all tournament long through the link here.