Australian Open 2025: Preview and Draw Analysis
Alcaraz Is The Unlucky Top Seed Who Draws Djokovic In His Quarter
The Australian Open 2025 Preview and Draw Analysis reveals a cadre of four superstars who have earned a top 4 seed, but that group does not include 10-time champion Novak Djokovic. Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev, Carlos Alcaraz and Taylor Fritz sit atop a changing landscape in men’s tennis as 2025 launches into its first Grand Slam.
First impressions: One of those four guys had to be unlucky enough to draw Djokovic, a 7-seed, in his quarter. The remaining players in that second-tier aren’t as impressive. All due respect to them, but this is the GOAT we’re talking about, especially on this surface. That unfortunate player is Alcaraz. So if the Djokovic – Alcaraz epic rivalry is to continue here in Australia, it will be in the quarterfinals.
To the Australian Open 2025 Preview and Draw Analysis.
Notable first round matches include: Talk-of-the-tour Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard against fellow Frenchman Gael Monfils and a clash of young Americans in Ben Shelton versus Brandon Nakishima. In that same section, Italian hotshots Matteo Arnaldi and Lorenzo Musetti will meet.
Sinner Quarter
Sinner has the possibility of a doping suspension hanging over his head, even though the World Number One has been absolved of intentionally taking a banned substance. The decision about his future is still weeks away, however. Sinner finished 2024 in crushing style, earning trophies and millions in prize money. But he opted not to play any of the Aussie warm-up tournaments, so the subtleties of his current form are a mystery.
This section has some interesting names, and I would not rank it as the easiest of the 4 quarters. Sinner opens with big-serving Nico Jarry. Not an easy out. Later he faces the possibility of Hubert Hurkacz, Holger Rune and Stefanos Tsitsipas. Any one of those guys could be an upset threat. Then at the bottom of the bracket, the speedy Alex de Minaur can make you run more than you want to. Anybody who gets past Demon, if they can escape with a win, can sometimes be diminished.
Zverev Quarter
Zverev withdrew from the United Cup with a bicep injury and has not had the action he usually prefers this Aussie summer. That said, he ended up with a nice draw. His bunk-mate in this bracket is Casper Ruud, over whom he owns the H2H 5-2. He’s drawn Nick Kyrgios in his section, but the Aussie gadfly has a grade 1 abdominal tear. The only potential hiccups I see are Arthur Fils and Tommy Paul. I’d like to pick Paul here, but he’s chosen to play a tournament the week before AO, and I’m just not sure of his form.
Australian Open 2025 Preview: Alcaraz Quarter
Another Alcaraz vs. Djokovic final in a Slam was not meant to be, and that’s a shame. Novak is king here with a record 10 titles, and Carlitos is seeking his first AO– the one jewel missing from his crown. The bright side: This could be a brilliant 5-set quarterfinal, and I believe it will.
Of course, in order for that to happen, Alcaraz will need to potentially get past the likes of hometown Aussie boy Jordan Thompson or lefty Jack Draper. Alcaraz can handle this until the quarters. Djokovic’s section is a little tougher. Tomas Mahac and Jiri Lehecka are two of the hottest players on tour currently. Mahac has top flight movement, and Lehecka scorches the ball.
Fritz Quarter
The top-ranked American has surprised everyone except himself. Fritz is playing with a thoughtful game plan and a heady belief. After breezing to a win in the United Cup, he’s rested and tested.
This quarter features some of the best servers in tennis, including Fritz. This area also has buzzy servers Shelton and Mpetshi Perricard. Andrey Rublev is always a threat on a fast surface, and Alexei Popyrin plays well at home. Daniil Medvedev anchors this quarter, but until the Russian can show me he’s injury-free, I can’t pick him to advance to the semifinals.
My players to watch:
QF: Sinner, Zverev, Djokovic, Fritz
SF: Sinner, Zverev
F: Sinner
*****
Australian Open 2025 Preview: Women’s Draw Analysis
What stands out about this year’s Australian Open women’s draw is the talent at the very top. We’re starting to see separation in women’s tennis. The top 8 seeds are elite and could well hold to chalk deep into this tournament.
In particular, 2-time and defending Australian Open champion Aryna Sabalenka is playing freely and establishing her dominance. Gone are the days of “anyone can beat anyone on any given day” on this tour. It takes elite talent to knock off Sabalenka lately.
Aryna has a favorable draw. Sure, she has a brand name in Sloane Stephens in the first round, but Sabalenka has the head-to-head 4-0. Mirra Andreeva and Diana Shnaider are dogged competitors, and Qinwen Zheng is a breakout talent, but Sabalenka can hit through all of them.
If Sabalenka is swept up in a massive wave of momentum, Coco Gauff is drafting in her wake with some sensational form of her own. She topped off her WTA Finals championship with another in the United Cup. With a new coach, Gauff has made adjustments on her serve, keeping the double faults at bay, and her forehand looks more solid. Coco begins with 2020 AO champ Sofia Kenin– interesting but not problematic with Gauff’s movement and ability to defend. Karolina Muchova, Jelena Ostapenko, Paula Badosa and Jessica Pegula are all names who could emerge here.
The two seed in this Australian Open 2025 Draw Preview, Iga Swiatek, has had a tumultuous 3 months. After testing positive for a banned substance, managing to keep it secret while clearing her name, the Polish star is now dealing with some backlash. On the court, she lost to Gauff twice in a row at the WTA Finals and United Cup. Last week she used medical time outs to deal with injuries and fatigue.
Iga has, in my opinion, the easiest draw of the 4 top seeds. But I find the matchup with emerging star Emma Navarro in a potential quarterfinal a potential match that could trip her up. They’ve only played once– 2018 Charleston. Eons ago! Iga is likely to find a completely different player if and when they meet. Plus, this is a hard court, which would favor the American.
4-seed Jasmine Paolini gets Elena Rybakina in her quarter. With coaching uncertainty, I can’t pick Elena, despite the fact that this surface suits her. Paolini plays slightly better on a slower court, but I can still see her making a deep run. I like what I saw from Katie Boulter in her loss to Swiatek last week to take a chance on this aggressive-baseliner Brit.
My players to watch:
QF: Sabalenka, Gauff, Navarro, Boulter
SF: Sabalenka, Navarro
F: Sabalenka
