National Bank Open 2026: ATP, WTA Draw Preview and Analysis
No Sinner, no Alcaraz, no Djokovic. This National Bank Open draw preview and analysis is only for the true purists because plenty of compelling potential matches await (Jack Draper vs Terence Atmane anyone?) and for the players, the money is good.
Last year in Canada, Ben Shelton proved he legitimately belonged in the ATP Top 10 with a first-ever Masters 1000 win. Now he’ll defend those points, but more intriguingly, another player could step up here to cement top-tier status (Rafael Jodar perhaps).
If you’d definitely sit for a Jiri Lehecka vs. Alexander Blockx match– and enthusiastically take notes– this National Bank Open draw preview and analysis is for you. Bye casuals.
On the women’s side, no such absentee problem exists. All the major seeds are present. We have a situation where the dangerous floater is a 6-time Grand Slam Champion. Confoundingly Iga Swiatek’s ranking has slipped all the way to 8. Jessica Pegula is the unlucky high seed who drew Iga in her quarter. Plenty of other underseeded threats linger like Linda Noskova, Iva Jovic and Naomi Osaka.
To the National Bank Open Draw Preview and Analysis.
Alexander Zverev Quarter
Jannik Sinner has such a huge cushion atop the rankings such that any big tournament he opts not to play is an opportunity for world number 2 Alexander Zverev to gain ground. I think Sinner was smart to sit out Canada in light of what happened during his run-up to Roland Garros this year. It’s fairly simple. He exhausted himself during the clay court season, winning every tournament he entered– then petered out come Slam time. During grass season, he opted to rest– and won Wimbledon. The math is pretty straightforward. The decision makes itself, doesn’t it? The Italian media disagrees.
Let’s say this tournament goes to chalk and Zverev wins then somehow is able to take Cincinnati as well. That makes the US Open all the more exciting– especially with the prospect of Carlos Alcaraz returning.
The draw gods have been kind to Alex. His next-highest seed is Taylor Fritz, who he just jackhammered in straight sets at Wimbledon. Always remember Zverev is playing elite tennis at the moment. He just happens to be in the era of Sinner and Alcaraz. But with his master service game, his powerful backhand and his improving mental acuity, he is a force.
Fritz made the comment on a podcast that he bases much of his in-match strategy on instinct. As much as Taylor’s mind is like a calculator, I don’t care for “feels” in tennis. Data always paints a clearer picture, and when it comes to returning Zverev’s serve, he’ll need that help.
National Bank Open Draw Preview and Analysis: Daniil Medvedev
Meddy’s ace rate and serve speeds are trending back up again. I have no information about this, but I think it’s possible he was injured for much of last year when his serve fell off the map. Medvedev is back in the ATP Top 10, and with all the withdrawals, he heads up his own quarter in Canada. That said, his path is the toughest of all the top seeds. He’s potentially looking at Giovanni Mpetsi Perricard, Hubert Hurkacz, Karen Khachanov, Jakub Mensik, Casper Ruud, Joao Fonseca and/or Shelton. Hardest section of the draw, right here.
I have Meddy getting through Hurkacz barely and Mensik also in a squeaker– only because Daniil is the more experienced strategist at this point. I think those two matches will sufficiently wear him out not having played since Wimbledon.
Ruud might meet Fonseca. Joao beat Casper on his beloved clay at RG this year. Shelton has an easy path, so that would pit the young guns against each other. Ben bested Fonseca in Munich earlier this year in 3. So I very tentatively have Shelton coming through this talent-packed quarter. Please don’t hold me to it.
Canadian Open: Alex de Minaur
Newly married Alex de Minaur, coming off a strong run in D.C., has a draw that shouldn’t give him problems until the Round of 16 where he could potentially face Arthur Fils, Matteo Berrettini or another rested player.
Berrettini is regaining momentum, as his Wimbledon showed. He might have to get through Fils and Canadian Denis Shapovalov. If Berrettini plays de MInaur, this is a tough call. D.C. has been hot and draining. Berrettini has been on vacation in Ibiza. The H2H is a close 3-2 in favor of Alex, but under these conditions, I favor the more rested player. Either way, the top of this quarter is stronger.
In a Round 3 gem, Jiri Lehecka could face Alexander Blockx in a battle of similar styles. They’ve never played. Lehecka blisters the serve and forehand with abilities to come forward. Blockx the same. I’ll take Lehecka based on the fact that he’s 14 in ATP serve stats at the moment. Blockx is on the come-up still.
The last little nugget of this fascinating section of the NBO men’s draw features a possible re-match between Rafael Jodar and Lorenzo Musetti, who just met in D.C. Jodar is looking unstoppable until somebody gets some decent scouting on this kid. He’s rangey and in his “play-til-you-drop” era. If Jodar meets de Minaur, it’ll be much tougher than when Rafa beat Alex on clay earlier this year, but doable.
Also in this section, Draper squares off with Atmane, not exactly an ideal opponent for someone coming off an arm injury. Atmane hits his forehand with a ton of lag, which causes massive action on the ball. I’m hedgingly picking Draper in this Round 1 sizzler because by now we can sense Jack would not come back if he weren’t 100 percent sure.
National Bank Open Draw Preview and Analysis: Felix Auger Aliassime
The heart of the hometown, Felix Auger Aliassime, has a huge opportunity to dazzle Montreal. He appears to be taking this tournament seriously and closing in his focus. His draw is tricky but manageable. I see him facing Brandon Nakashima in a Round 3 server’s delight. Nakashima played D.C. deep. Felix should run him on the baseline and close in at first chance.
Elsewhere in this quarter, Frances Tiafoe bombed out of his hometown tournament early to Atmane and might feel some relief to play on his favorite surface more anonymously. Andrey Rublev and Gabriel Diallo are players I also love in this section. Flavio Cobolli anchors the opposite end from FAA. Wouldn’t it be great for Canada to have a quarterfinal of Diallo and Auger Aliassime? I’m going to pick that, with FAA coming through.
My players to watch (W):
QF: Zverev, Shelton, Jodar, Auger Aliassime
SF: Zverev, Jodar
F: Zverev
National Bank Open: WTA Draw Preview and Analysis
Some notes: Naomi Osaka at long last seems to be enjoying her life. She’s played brilliantly in D.C. If she doesn’t win that tournament, I pick her to win Canada. She made the finals here last year and had a mental meltdown losing to Victoria Mboko, who is sadly injured this year. I like Naomi’s Canada draw. Cancel that if she wins D.C. It’s exhausting to win a tournament, especially for someone like her who needs breaks to mentally recharge.
Elena Rybakina’s form is completely unknown. She lost early at Wimbledon and hasn’t been seen since. This surface should favor her. But I just don’t know where her game stands.
When world number 1 Aryna Sabalenka is in the draw, she is the favorite to win. She’s achieved that status. Hard courts are her friend(s). Looking at her draw, she could blister through anyone except for maybe Elina Svitolina.
As mentioned, Pegula has Iga in her quarter. Sucks for her, but let’s not forget Jess’s straight sets win over Iga at the 2024 U.S. Open and 2023 Canada. She’s not intimidated on this surface. Swiatek’s forehand is in flux at the moment, and court speed matters.
Noskova, Jovic and Alex Eala all landed in Coco Gauff’s quarter. That’s a jampacked section. Eala over Noskova is my upset special, and I like Gauff over Jovic in 3 on the strength of Coco’s improving command of her second serve.
My players to watch come through:
QF: Sabalenka, Pegula, Gauff, Osaka
SF: Sabalenka, Osaka
F: Osaka unless Naomi wins D.C., then I pick Aryna
