2025 Rolex Shanghai Masters Draw Preview and Analysis
In the 2025 Rolex Shanghai Masters draw preview and analysis, Novak Djokovic returns to the ATP Tour, greeted by a manageable draw. Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner also lord over this second-to-last 1000 level tournament of the season.
What’s in this for Djokovic? Perhaps he’s thinking strategically, with the emergence of a 2-player tennis diarchy in Sinner and Alcaraz. Djokovic currently stands at number 4 in the rankings, with American Taylor Fritz right on his tail at number 5.
While Novak has stated that rankings no longer matter to him at this point in his career and that he only wants to pursue Grand Slam titles, there’s a matter of practicality here. Another Slam becomes easier to achieve if he’s ranked in the Top 4. There exists an important 4/5 cut line. Inside the Top 4, he’d gain valuable protection in Slam draws. If drops to 5, he could easily land in Sinner’s or Alcaraz’s quarter. It’s really just about improving odds to grab that Slam.
A note before the Rolex Shanghai Masters draw preview and analysis. If you’re paying attention to professional tennis at this point in the season, post-US Open, you’re more than a casual fan. If you’re reading this, you have an appreciation and understanding of tennis that’s a level up. For that, you’ve received a gift. Having Djokovic in the same draw as Alcaraz and Sinner– two platinum-plated superstars– is a real treat for those who love the game. We won’t have this opportunity for much longer. We’re very likely talking months, not years.
Alcaraz Quarter
The spry Spaniard has battled an ankle injury but still managed to make a deep run in the preceding Tokyo tournament. True to form, Alcaraz has maintained a breakneck schedule. I still favor him to make the finals because how could you not? He’s the number one player in the world. That said, Alex de Minaur could tire him out, and with the way Demon has been playing, even steal a victory. But Alex is tired, too. Both these guys played Laver Cup and hightailed it to Asia immediately after.
I have de Minaur over Khachanov, even though Karen leads the H2H 2-1. Alex is playing superb tennis. He’s feeling the ball and even said he might have “unlocked” some new volleying proficiency after stellar matches at Laver Cup.
2025 Rolex Shanghai Masters Draw Preview: Alexander Zverev
Zverev has been out of form, losing in the 3rd round of the US Open, nursing back problems at Laver Cup, and getting upset by Daniil Medvedev in Beijing. He has a difficult quarter that includes Arthur Rinderknech, Denis Shapovalov, Jiri Lehecka and Felix Auger Aliassime.
My bracket looks like this. I see the newly married FAA beating Jakub Mensik, who’s been struggling with a knee injury. I have Lorenzo Musetti or Yunchaokete Bu (I pick Bu, who in the words of Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is “really good”) losing to FAA in the round of 16. But then I have the hard-hitting Lehecka over Zverev. The Zverev-Lehecka H2H is tied at 1, but they haven’t played since 2023. The Czech loves any medium-to-fast hard-court, so I see Jiri barely advancing past FAA in a tight 3-set contest with tiebreakers.
Djokovic Quarter
Novak’s quarter is filled with players he’s dominated. After a bye, his potentials include Corentin Moutet, Lorenzo Sonego and Francis Tiafoe. Sonego is the only one of those guys who’s been able to ever beat Djokovic. It was a 2020 win in Vienna during a lull for Novak.
I then see Djokovic facing Andrey Rublev. Novak has a 5-1 H2H there and has a pretty good beat on Andrey’s flat ground stokes and baseline-tethered game.
It’s an intriguing section up at the top of this quarter with Ben Shelton returning to tour after retiring to Adrian Mannarino in that US Open battle royale. It’s possible those two could meet again in this section. But actually, I have Casper Ruud getting through Francisco Cerrundolo based on slightly better forehand precision and accuracy. Then I have Ruud over Shelton, who might not have his match fitness in full effect yet. Sometimes it takes Ben a tournament to warm back up.
If Ruud plays Djokovic, keep in mind he’s never come close to beating Novak on a hard court. His only win over the GOAT was last year on clay in Monte Carlo.
Shanghai Masters Draw Preview: Jannik Sinner
The Italian has calibrated his post-US Open schedule more reasonably than Alcaraz, in my opinion. He’s mowed over opponents during a deep run in Beijing. He’s fresh. High seeds I like in this section include Fritz, Holger Rune and Alexander Bublik.
Ultimately, with as match-fit Fritz has been, I have Fritz beating an out-of-sorts Rune before facing Sinner in the quarterfinals. Sinner might have to beat Bublik, who famously nabbed him earlier this year on grass. But the courts of Shanghai are less receptive to creativity. That one could go 3.
Sinner is looking and feeling light and free for his home stretch of this season. Fritz finally figured out how to beat Alcaraz (albeit at Laver Cup), but asking him to solve Sinner just 2 weeks later is a real reach mentally and physically. So if Sinner meets Alcaraz in the final, I favor him simply because he has fewer miles on the tires than the weary, banged-up Carlitos. Sinner has the most difficult draw of the top seeds, but with his eager-to-improve mentality and wise scheduling, he’s my pick to win here.
Players to watch:
Coming through
QF: Alcaraz, Lehecka, Djokovic, Sinner
SF: Alcaraz, Sinner
F: Sinner
