Djokovic, Alcaraz on opposite sides, setting up yet another potential final clash
US Open 2024 Draw Preview: Men’s and Women’s Analysis
The US Open 2024 draw preview sets up a blistering fortnight of possibility, including Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz on opposite sides. Beleaguered Jannik Sinner draws Alcaraz in his half.
My overall impressions glancing at the US Open 2024 men’s draw: It sets up a bevy of fraught rematches. For example, my bracket has top-ranked American Taylor Fritz potentially meeting 4th-seeded Alexander Zverev in a rematch of their terse Wimbledon clash. And of course, the US Open 2024 draw preview gives us another potential final between Djokovic and Alcaraz, arguably the two current best players on the planet.
Before I break down the sections of this US Open 2024 draw preview, a note about upset specials and first-round matches to catch. Tommy Paul and Lorenzo Sonego are two lithe movers in Rd 1. This will also be a good indication of how Tommy is feeling at his home Slam this year. Jack Draper vs. Zhizhen Zhang is a first-round battle of two quality players, and we’ll see how Draper is dealing with the Cincy dustup. American tall dude Reilly Opelka continues his comeback attempt against 2024 hotshot Lorenzo Musetti. Good contrast of styles. My potential upset special: Thanasi Kokkinakis over new-coach-seeking Stefanos Tsitsipas.
US Open 2024 Draw Preview: Sinner Quarter
Sinner has been completely cleared of doping allegations, but the story doesn’t end there. Though not his fault, Sinner’s case has exposed huge inequities in the way drug cases are handled in professional tennis. Notably Simona Halep and Tara Moore lost months of playing time and possibly millions of dollars in earnings. This has to weigh on Sinner to some extent. Add the fact that, while his chemical exposure was purely accidental, the Italian superstar had to give up prize money and rankings points. He admitted the process was a drain on him. Plus Sinner has battled a recurring hip injury. I cannot pick Sinner to come through at the US Open 2024. The margins are too tight.
Former US Open champion Daniil Medvedev and rising American Tommy Paul lurk in this section of the men’s draw. My bracket has Sinner’s run ending with Paul, who would potentially meet Meddy in the quarterfinals. This is yet another intriguing rivalry on repeat. Medvedev and Paul met in the semis of Indian Wells this year in a fascinating contrast of styles. It was a cliffhanger until Paul twisted his ankle. In their next meeting on clay in Rome, Paul beat Meddy soundly. This is just a really fun kind of contest on a hard court. I would pick Paul to come through only by virtue of the crowd, but it could be dramatic.
Carlos Alcaraz Quarter
Roland Garros and Wimbledon 2024 Champion Carlos Alcaraz has an easy draw. The highest seed near him is lefty Brit Jack Draper, who carries the albatross of his sportsmanship being called into question after a controversial match point with Felix Auger Aliassime in Cincinnati. Easy pickings for Carlitos.
Other notables in this section include: American Sebastian Korda, Aussie Alex De Minaur, young Italian Matteo Arnaldi and big server Hubert Hurkacz. Alcaraz has favorable records against all these guys, with only a single victory between them (Korda). It stuns belief how dominant Alcaraz has become in such a short period of time.
US Open 2024 Draw Preview: Zverev Quarter
One beneficiary of all the controversy surrounding other men in tennis right now might be a guy who’s finally not part of it: Alexander Zverev. The German has enjoyed deep runs aplenty this year. He’s waiting for his Grand Slam breakthrough. His razor thin loss to Dominic Thiem in 2020 still haunts him, but Thiem is retiring early. Rafael Nadal will soon follow. Maybe in some cosmic way, this exorcizes a few ghosts.
As mentioned above, I have Fritz meeting Zverev in the quarterfinals. Alex leads their H2H 5-4. Even though Fritz has been playing brilliantly in 2024 and is just a sliver away from the ATP Top 10, Zverev could use his experience against this opponent to out-serve him. Neither guy comes to the net much, but Zverev is a little better at it.
Novak Djokovic Quarter
Four-time US Open Champion Novak Djokovic also has a fairly straightforward draw, though things could get a bit more complicated down the stretch.
Novak has the wind at his back right now. And it’s an amazing, fresh and happy breeze. He’s won 24 Grand Slams, the most for a man. He just realized a dream of winning an Olympic Gold Medal by beating both the King of Clay Nadal and young gun Alcaraz at Roland Garros. Life is sweet. Some will argue that he will lack the motivation required to slog through New York. I see it more as a weight lifted.
Djokovic could potentially meet feisty and flashy Ben Shelton again here in the Round of 16. We all remember that match from last year when a cheeky Djokovic hung up the phone on Shelton. My bracket has a dark horse in Czech Jiri Lehecka beating Andrey Rublev at the top of this quarter. Lehecka was hurt in Madrid this year but is an exciting young clean-ball-hitter who looks to be rebounding if Cincinnati is any indication. So I have Djokovic and Lehecka in the quarterfinals with the GOAT coming through.
My players to watch:
QF: Paul, Alcaraz, Zverev, Djokovic
SF: Alcaraz, Djokovic
F: Alcaraz
US Open 2024 Draw Preview: Women
The women’s side is loaded with intriguing possible matchups and talented powerhouse players striving to establish their hold on the game.
First of all, a note. It doesn’t seem 4th-seeded Elena Rybakina is healthy, because she lost in the first round of Cincinnati and she’s been skipping her US Open practice sessions. So pencil her out early. Feisty Italian Jasmine Paolini anchors the other end of that quarter, but hard court isn’t her speciality. This is where someone else could emerge, and I like the power baseline game of Anna Kalinskaya. She might have to deal with Jelena Ostapenko, but Penko can definitely be caught on a spray-n-wash night.
World number one Iga Swiatek has some sticky wickets in her section including Mirra Andreeva, Danielle Collins, Diana Shnaider and Jessica Pegula. All players who could potentially take down the 2022 US Open champ. Snaider is definitely a player to watch for me. Pegula just beat her roundly in Canada, but the Russian NC State product has many quality wins this year. I’m going to take JPeg over Diana in 3 sets this time, but watch the Russian improve. Iga’s toughest test will likely be Andreeva on her way to the final.
2023 US Open Champion Coco Gauff has had an uneven 2024, and there’s a lot of pressure to defend in New York. Because of this, I see her being upset in this talent-filled section of the draw. I like Wimbledon champion Barbora Krejikova to come through simply because of her all-court game and unflappability on beak points.
The final section of the women’s draw is fairly straightforward for me. The highest-quality players, as it stands right now, are Qinwen Zheng and Aryna Sabalenka. Clearly healthy and with her serve in full throttle, I see “Sabs Train” with the trophy in hand this year.
My players to watch:
QF: Swiatek, Kalinskaya, Krejikova, Sabalenka
SF: Swiatek, Sabalenka
F: Sabalenka
