Tennis is a wonderfully nuanced sport. Both the WTA and ATP Tours travel the globe leading to a lot of different playing conditions. Court surfaces change, the form of players comes and goes, and tournament levels vary greatly from the likes of the Challenger Tour to the Grand Slams.
With so many matches filling a sports book week after week, how does a punter break it all down for wagering? By using tennis stats. Here are our best tips for using them to bolster online betting tennis in the UK.
Tennis players face a lot of different situations because of changing playing surfaces. The clay courts in the summer play a lot slower with higher bounce for example, than the fast hard courts in the autumn do.
Players are generally stronger on certain types of courts. A couple of big examples are Rafael Nadal’s stunning French Open record and Novak Djokovic’s Australian Open and Wimbledon records.
They are two of the greatest players ever, but the bulk of their respective title successes are from specific slams. Naturally different players have different skill sets, players with massive serves are better suited to hard courts and grass.
More technical players get the most out of the slower clay courts. Always take into consideration the playing surface of a tournament.
For online tennis wagering, dip into the head-to-head, but not just by looking at the previous match results between the two selected players. Look at what surface they are currently meeting on and then filter the past head-to-head results by the same one. Check further to see if any previous specific tournament head-to-head history between them exists.
Number Of Winners & Unforced Errors
A good way to judge the current form of a player is to look at the number of winners hit by them in recent matches. More attack-minded players naturally produce more clean winning strikes.
But that doesn’t paint the entire picture at all. Aggressive, attacking players also tend to make a lot more unforced errors. So marry the two stats together and look for a good balance of high winners/low errors.
To get a fuller picture, also look at the return stats. Players have to face service games as well! So look at their numbers for how many return games they have been winning recently. That could indicate how likely they are to break an opponent’s service game.
Take a look at break points stats too. There are two sides to this coin. What are a player’s numbers like for saving break points? This indicates how well they can handle the pressure in such situations, but more could be read into it.
If they are facing a lot of breakpoints in a match, an in-play option on them getting broken should present itself in the odds. On the other side of things, look at how adept a player is at coming up with potentially match-changing plays under pressure, by winning break points.
This is an overlooked stat of tennis wagering. As part of head-to-heard research, look at the record of non-Top 10 players when facing the elite. What is their strike rate of wins against the Top 10 players?
What are their most recent results against such players? Break it down further to see their records on specific surfaces against the Top 10 players.
If, for example, a player has won three of their last five matches against Top 10 players after not winning any in the previous two seasons, then that could pique interest for a potential underdog upset.
Current service records are another good stat to look at. Backing a player who is winning a lot of points on serve, is naturally going to be a stronger pick. There are different areas of service stats.
Among the best is First Serve Percentage, because a high stat there means a player is accurate and not having to rely on slower second serves. But also back it up with First Serve Points Won. If the two come in with high percentages, the player is likely going to be hard to break.
A lot of tennis successes happen in streaks. It may not be until late autumn when the North American swing of the season comes around, that a player who has performed little above average for the year, suddenly gets into a red-hot streak of form. So try to spot those players who have suddenly picked up their form.
The Stats Go On
Many stats for tennis can be found like tie-breaks won, aces and first serve return points won. The deeper you get into tennis wagering, the more you can unlock to further enhance your tennis picks.