US Open 2010 Day 4 Preview: 2 September

by: Tom Cochrane

After a fresh air swing when serving and an on-court collapse shortly thereafter, tournament organisers and tennis fans held grave concerns for Victoria Azarenka. Thankfully, the tenth seed is on her way to recovery, with reports suggesting a concussion at training earlier in the day was to blame for her collapse.

Day 3 Recap

While Azarenka’s collapse and consequent defeat to Gisela Dulko was all the talk on another warm day at Flushing Meadows, she was not the only seed to fall on Day 3. Also exiting the year’s final major was Jie Zheng, who was thrashed by a rejuvenated Ana Ivanovic, Tsvetana Pironkova, who missed the chance for another clash against Venus Williams, and Marion Bartoli, who lost out to fellow Frenchwoman Virginie Razzano.

Aussie teenager Sally Peers met her match against defending champion Kim Clijsters, and Melanie Oudin was unable to recapture her form from last year’s US Open, going down to Alona Bondarenko in a sloppy match. There were wins for seeds Schiavone, Hantuchova, Stosur and Peer, but Alisa Kleybanova was not so lucky, defeated by Italy’s Sara Errani.

The biggest casualty on Day 3 in the men’s tournament was Andy Roddick, who succumbed to the dangerous Janko Tipsarevic in 4 sets. There was better news for the host nation in other matches, with Sam Querrey and John Isner progressing. Another high-profile casualty was Wimbledon finalist Tomas Berdych, who was unable to combat Michael Llodra’s energetic serve and volley game. Fifteenth seed Ivan Ljubicic was comprehensively beaten by young American Ryan Harrison, but among the seeds successful on Day 3 were Monfils, Wawrinka, Kohlschreiber and Youzhny.

Andy Murray has enjoyed plenty of support from punters and is one of the title favourites. The Scot did his chances no harm with an emphatic straight sets win over Lukas Lacko. Also impressive in recording a straight sets win was Gael Monfils, who disposed of the talented Russian Igor Andreev.

Matches of the Day – Day 4

1. Philipp Petzschner vs. Novak Djokovic

Once the dust has settled on a tournament, it’s easy to focus on the winner and to forget the struggles that the winner had to endure en route to the title. Many forget that Philipp Petzschner not only extended Rafael Nadal to 5 sets at Wimbledon, he also held the ascendancy for much of the match, taking a 2 sets to 1 lead before Nadal squeezed out a victory. Although he lost the match, Petzschner will take a lot of confidence from his performance at the All England Club and will sense an opportunity here against Djokovic.

Djokovic was extremely lucky to survive an energy-sapping 5 setter against Troicki and it was clear that the match took a lot out of the third seed. Djokovic will be hell-bent on making this a quick match, in order to restore his energy levels for later in the tournament. If Petzschner can get on top early, Djokovic may struggle to go the distance, but I suspect the Serb will be more focused than he was against his countryman Troicki. Djokovic in 4.

2. Jelena Jankovic vs. Mirjana Lucic

Jelena Jankovic is a former US Open finalist who probably plays her best tennis on hard courts. She’s come to close to claiming a Grand Slam on a number of occasions, without truly getting within touching distance of a major trophy. To my mind, that’s due to some mental frailties, but we are too early in the tournament for those to come into operation.

It’s been a strange life for Mirjana Lucic. After bursting onto the tennis scene as a teenager and claiming her first tournament win as a professional at just 15, Lucic had to suffer injuries and, according to certain reports, an abusive father. After falling down the ranks, Lucic was forced to play second-tier tournaments for many years. But Lucic had a good win over Alicia Molik in the first round and has nothing to lose in this encounter. I think Jankovic will be the steadier player in this clash, but it would be great to see Lucic progress further in the tournament. Jankovic in 2.

3. Nikolay Davydenko vs. Richard Gasquet

I expected Nikolay Davydenko to struggle in his opening round match at Flushing Meadows, as a result of some patchy form following a long injury lay-off. The Russian proved me wrong, dispatching journeyman Michael Russell in straight sets. That was a good performance, but I sense Davydenko’s luck could run out against Richard Gasquet.

Gasquet may be best-known in the United States for his positive drug test for cocaine, which was recorded in Miami and was allegedly the result of a kiss. But Gasquet, whose suspension due to the drug test was later dismissed, is a seriously talented individual who has been inside the world’s top 10. It’s taken Gasquet a while to find his feet again after the cocaine episode, but I reckon Davydenko is ripe for the picking and Gasquet is exactly the sort of player who can seize such an opportunity. Look for Gasquet to get well inside the court and dictate play with his stunning one-handed backhand. Gasquet in 5.

4. Robin Soderling vs. Taylor Dent

American journeyman Taylor Dent always seems to come up against good players early on in Grand Slams. First it was Robin Soderling in Paris, then Rafael Nadal in London. While Soderling thrashed Dent in the French Open, Dent performed better against Nadal at Wimbledon.

Soderling had a scare in the first round of this tournament, forced to go to 5 sets against a qualifier. He’ll be hoping for less court time in this encounter, but I expect Dent to give Soderling more of a challenge than he did in Paris. Dent’s poor court movement was exposed on the clay, but the fast hard courts of Flushing Meadows and a home crowd will make life more difficult for Soderling. Still, it’s generally taken a lot to beat the big Swede in a Grand Slam in the last couple of years, so I’ll back Soderling to advance. Soderling in 4.

5. Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez vs. Patty Schnyder

It’s been a good year on the WTA Tour for twenty-second seed Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez. The Spaniard teamed with Tommy Robredo to win the Hopman Cup in January, then pulled off the biggest win of her career by winning the Italian Open in May. Martinez Sanchez’s game is quite different to the majority of those employed on the WTA Tour, full of chips, touch shots, and slices, with some serving and volleying thrown in for good measure.

Such a touch game is hard to execute when one is nervous or low on confidence, but Martinez Sanchez appears to have faith in her game plan and her results are a testament to that game plan. Schnyder is a WTA Tour veteran who was once ranked inside the world’s top 10. At her best, she would pose a big threat to Martinez Sanchez, but I think the Swiss player’s best days are now behind her. Martinez Sanchez in 3.

That’s it for today. Enjoy the tennis and I’ll be back with another serve tomorrow.

US Open 2010 Day 3 Preview: 1 September

by: Tom Cochrane

It’s been a truly eye-opening start to this year’s US Open. First, Roger Federer pulls off this. Then Novak Djokovic says this. I can’t wait to see what Day 3 holds in store for tennis fans.

Day 2 Recap

World number one Rafael Nadal kicked off his campaign for a maiden US Open title with a win on Day 2, claiming a pair of tiebreakers on his way to a straight sets win over Teymuraz Gabashvili. Forced to work far harder to secure a second round berth was Nadal’s compatriot Fernando Verdasco, a 5 set winner over the pesky Fabio Fognini, and third seed Novak Djokovic, who rallied from a precarious position to defeat fellow Serb Viktor Troicki in 5 sets.

Marcos Baghdatis was the highest profile casualty in the men’s tournament on Day 2, succumbing to the guile of French veteran Arnaud Clement in another 5 setter. Five set matches once again seemed to be the flavour of the day, with David Nalbandian and Mardy Fish also going the distance. Tenth seed David Ferrer had a comfortable straight sets win, while Radek Stepanek, on the comeback trail from injury, went down to Frenchman Julien Benneteau.

If Caroline Wozniacki is feeling the weight of expectation after entering the women’s tournament as the top seed, she sure isn’t showing it yet. The elegant Dane dropped just 2 games in thrashing America’s Chelsey Gullickson. Wimbledon finalist Vera Zvonareva and Belgium’s Yanina Wickmayer also recorded easy wins, while Svetlana Kuznetsova and Jelena Jankovic were extended to 3 sets.

Among the seeds, the news was less pleasing for Na Li, Nadia Petrova and Lucie Safarova, each of whom was bundled out on Day 2. Maria Sharapova looked like she might join them after she lost the first set to Australian Jarmila Groth. But Groth, who was hitting as hard and flat a ball as anyone I’ve seen on the WTA Tour, eventually started misfiring, and Sharapova’s experience led her to a 3 set victory.

Matches of the Day – Day 3

1. Ana Ivanovic vs. Jie Zheng

It was great to see Ana Ivanovic record a win on Day 1, all the more so because the win came against the dangerous Ekaterina Makarova. But there’s another tough foe waiting for the former world number one and French Open champion in the round of 64. Twenty-first seed and Australian Open semi-finalist Jie Zheng is a consistent and competitive player, and she is exactly the sort of opponent that will exploit any weakness or inconsistency in the Ivanovic game. There’s no doubt that Ivanovic possesses greater firepower and also more on-court creativity, but the Serb has become a more defensive and less attacking player in recent times.

In my opinion, Ivanovic needs to come out of her shell and rediscover the attacking game that made her one of the best in the sport. If she can maintain good court position and look to dictate the play, I think the odds are stacked in her favour. But if she retreats far beyond the baseline and engages in long rallies, I think Zheng will have the edge. This one is close to a coin-toss, but I’ll take Ivanovic in 3.

2. Sally Peers vs. Kim Clijsters

It’s the sort of story that sports journalists love: an unheralded Australian qualifier makes the main draw and, in doing so, makes Australian tennis history by emulating the feats of her mother, who played at the US Open several decades ago. Then the qualifier thrashes a solid WTA Tour player in round 1 and is to face off against her childhood idol and the defending champion in round 2.

Yes, it’s been quite the fairytale for Sally Peers. But, while the young Aussie’s main draw debut was nothing short of spectacular, I can’t help but feel that the whirlwind nature of the last few days will take its toll on her performance in this clash. Clijsters is not only a veteran of the WTA Tour, she is also the consummate professional and will be highly focused on honing in on Peers’ weaknesses and advancing to the third round as quickly as possible. Peers has got nothing to lose, but Clijsters will advance with ease. Clijsters in 2.

3. Janko Tipsarevic vs. Andy Roddick

The other day I wrote that Paul-Henri Mathieu was a player who performed much better against high-quality opponents than low-quality opponents. I think that statement also applies to Janko Tipsarevic. The flashy but erratic Tipsarevic came within a whisker of knocking Roger Federer out of the Australian Open a few years back and relishes playing on the big stage.

Tipsarevic won’t be intimidated playing against Roddick in New York – in fact, I think the Serb will thrive on the raucous atmosphere that is likely to be created under lights on Arthur Ashe Stadium. Roddick, who is still recovering from a recent illness, will be aware of the threat Tipsarevic poses and will be intent on producing a high-quality serving display in order to limit the Serb’s chances to break serve. I was impressed by Roddick’s performance in round 1 and, while Tipsarevic will probably get streaky at times during this match, I think Roddick’s serve will eventually help him claim victory. Roddick in 5.

4. Melanie Oudin vs. Alona Bondarenko

It was always going to be hard for young Melanie Oudin to return to Flushing Meadows this year, the scene of her amazing run to the US Open quarter-finals last year. Expectations were high for Oudin’s continued development this year and, although she hasn’t had an incredible year, it’s been a steady season for the American and I sense that she will eventually make it into the world’s top 20 and perhaps the top 10.

But Oudin faces a seasoned campaigner in the second round in the form of Alona Bondarenko. The Ukrainian will no doubt be buoyed by the efforts of her sister Kateryna, who upset eighth seed Na Li on Day 2. As she showed last year, Oudin doesn’t take a back step against anyone, but I think Bondarenko will look to serve up plenty of variety to Oudin, who would probably prefer an all-out slugfest. Bondarenko in 3.

5. Gael Monfils vs. Igor Andreev

Add Igor Andreev to my list of players who rise to the occasion in big matches. I consider Andreev to have one of the best forehands on the ATP Tour and he has shown glimpses of his immense talent at various stages in his career. But it’s been a disappointing year for Andreev who, after pushing Federer in the opening round at Melbourne Park, has slipped to 102 in the world rankings.

After capturing 3 junior Grand Slams in one season, many tennis pundits expected that Gael Monfils would have established himself inside the world’s top 5 by this stage of his career. While the seventeenth seed has yet to do that, he is definitely becoming a more consistent and seasoned professional with each season he spends on the ATP Tour. And the fact that Monfils sits at number 19 in the world is more a testament to the strength of the men’s game rather than a reflection of any deficiencies on the part of the athletic Frenchman.

I’d normally expect Andreev to have a strong chance in a match like this, but at this point in time, Monfils is feeling far better about his tennis than Andreev is about his. Andreev has risen to the occasion in previous high-profile matches, but I can’t see it happening this time. Monfils in 4.

That’s it for today. Enjoy the tennis and I’ll be back with another serve tomorrow.

US Open 2010 Issue 2: 31 August

by: Tom Cochrane

Play is underway in the 2010 US Open and, while the majority of the women’s seeds in action on Day 1 progressed comfortably to the second round, it was a different story for several of the men’s seeds who were forced to go the distance.

Day 1 Recap

Roger Federer’s campaign for a sixth US Open crown got off to a smooth start on Day 1, the Swiss maestro producing a straight sets win over Argentina’s Brian Dabul. Andy Roddick enjoyed his birthday at Flushing Meadows, also advancing in straight sets, but former champion Lleyton Hewitt ended a scratchy North American summer in dismal fashion, going down in 5 sets to the dangerous Frenchman Paul-Henri Mathieu. Seeds Soderling, Melzer, Monfils and Montanes were also forced to deciding fifth sets, but each managed to eke out a victory.

Rising star Marin Cilic demonstrated his undoubted class with a near-flawless display on Day 1, while Nikolay Davydenko had an easier than expected match against local hope Michael Russell, dispatching the American in straight sets. Taylor Dent restored some American pride by defeating Alejandro Falla, while Janko Tipsarevic saw off the talented Olivier Rochus in a torrid 4 set tussle.

In the women’s tournament, Kim Clijsters started her title defence in positive fashion with a comfortable win over Greta Arn. Melanie Oudin, last year’s US Open golden girl, joined Clijsters in the round of 64 with a 6-3 6-0 victory over Olga Savchuk. Other winners on Day 1 were French Open champion Francesca Schiavone, sixteenth seed Shahar Peer, Daniela Hantuchova, who overcame former world number one Dinara Safina, and Sam Stosur, who came from behind to defeat Elena Vesnina in 3 sets. There was better news for another former world number one in Anna Ivanovic, who saw off Ekaterina Makarova.

Third seed Venus Williams was rarely troubled in her opening match and is on course for a third round rematch against her apparent nemesis, Tsvetana Pironkova. Pironkova, who defeated Williams in this year’s Wimbledon championships and also at the Australian Open a few years back, had a 6-3 6-4 win over Renata Voracova. And finally, a salute to Sally Peers, an Aussie qualifier who made her Grand Slam main draw debut at Flushing Meadows on Day 1. Peers made the most of her first match on tennis’ biggest stage, annihilating Canada’s Aleksandra Wozniak, 6-0 6-1. Now that’s what I call a debut.

Matches of the Day – Day 2

1. Viktor Troicki vs. Novak Djokovic

After beating Roger Federer en route to capturing his one and only Grand Slam title at Melbourne Park in 2008, it’s fair to say that Novak Djokovic’s career has stalled somewhat, although the Serb is a remarkably consistent performer on the ATP Tour who is always near the mark at Grand Slams.

While Djokovic no doubt harbours great ambitions of adding more Grand Slams to his Australian Open triumph, more often than not he has found it hard to match Federer and Nadal at the pointy ends of the Grand Slams. Additionally, rising stars such as Murray, Soderling, Cilic and Berdych have stepped up in recent majors, thus lengthening the list of true Grand Slam contenders.

In this year’s US Open Djokovic has been placed in a tough quarter of the draw, and the tough matches begin with this opener against his compatriot Troicki. Troicki is a good all-court player who has steadily improved over the past few years. Early on in his career I think Troicki would have been overawed playing against his high-profile countryman, but I think Troicki is now a more mature and experienced professional. Look for Djokovic to attempt to gain the ascendancy early; the third seed doesn’t want a gruelling encounter in his first round match. I don’t think it will be as easy a match as Djokovic would like, but I think his class will eventually enable him to prevail. Djokovic in 4.

2. Jarmila Groth vs. Maria Sharapova

There are very few players on the WTA Tour who can claim that they have made the round of 16 at both the French Open and Wimbledon this year, but Jarmila Groth is one of them. The naturalised Aussie has improved her game enormously in the last 12 months and has a sufficiently powerful serve and groundstrokes to trouble the best of them in the women’s game. But for some nerves and some poor decision-making under pressure, Groth could have beaten Venus Williams in their clash at Wimbledon.

Judging by Sharapova’s comments going into this encounter, the Russian is fully aware of Groth’s development and accordingly is wary of the threat she poses. I expect Groth to come out swinging and take the match right up to Sharapova, but I think Sharapova’s greater experience and good recent form will see her prevail. Sharapova in 2.

3. Marcos Baghdatis vs. Arnaud Clement

After a couple of years in the tennis wilderness battling fitness, form and confidence, the super-popular Cypriot Marcos Baghdatis has been enjoying a resurgence in his tennis career this year, having compiled a very healthy 35-20 win-loss record for the year to date and returning to the world’s top 20. Baghdatis is very much a confidence player, but when fit and full of confidence he is one of the purest ball-strikers in the men’s game. The sixteenth seed likes playing on the US hard courts, which are high-bouncing and fast-paced, and I consider him to be very capable of making deep run at this tournament.

French veteran Arnaud Clement is a former Australian Open finalist and top 10 player who, despite being past his best, can still pose plenty of problems for the world’s best due to his immense talent, his quick pace around the court and his strong competitive nature. Baghdatis will need to be switched on mentally for this one, and not let his concentration lapse – something he has been guilty of doing in the past. But if Baghdatis can focus and play his natural game, I expect him to come out on top. Baghdatis in 4.

4. Kristof Vliegen vs. James Blake

Make no mistake, the world of professional tennis is an utterly ruthless one; it’s a sport enjoyed by millions of people who hail from just about every nation on the planet. Everyone wants to make the big time, to enjoy the spoils of fame and fortune that accompany success on the big stage. Unfortunately, there are only so many players who are able to make it to the top, and even then it’s a mighty hard task to stay there.

In different ways, the stories of Vliegen and Blake illustrate this cold hard reality. Vliegen reached a high of 30 in the world rankings in October 2006, with the future seeming to look bright for the young Belgian. Alas, he now languishes at number 321 in the world rankings and sports an abysmal 1-8 win-loss record for the year to date. Blake, a former world number 4 in the twilight of his career, has also plummeted in the world rankings. The American is now ranked 111 in the world, his decline exacerbated by a combination of injuries and inconsistent form.

It’s tough to predict the winner of this encounter, with neither player exactly high on confidence, but this could well be Blake’s last US Open and no doubt the crowd is eager to witness one last stand from the popular American. Blake in 4.

5. Svetlana Kuznetsova vs. Kimiko Date Krumm

After a poor start to the season, former French Open and US Open champion Svetlana Kuznetsova has worked hard to turn around her form. Flushing Meadows holds fond memories for the eleventh seed and, with Justine Henin and Serena Williams out of the tournament due to injury, Kuznetsova will consider herself to be a legitimate contender for this year’s title.

But in order to make a run at this year’s US Open, Kuznetsova first has to overcome a tricky first round opponent in Kimiko Date Krumm. Soon to turn 40, Date Krumm appears to be enjoying her tennis after rejoining the WTA Tour following her initial “retirement” and, as she demonstrated in her French Open win over Dinara Safina, the wily veteran is capable of causing an upset. The bookmakers have Date Krumm as a rank outsider at around $12, but I sense the match will be closer than they predict. Kuznetsova in 3.

That’s it for today. Enjoy the tennis and I’ll be back with another serve tomorrow.

US Open 2010: Men’s and Women’s Draw Preview and Analysis

US Open—New York

The challenges of playing two weeks of New York City tennis can become daunting at best. The Billie Jean King National Tennis Center remains nestled away in the heart of Queens, while traveling to and from the event is unlike any other tournament stop throughout the season. Although the seven train will take you right to the doorstep of all the action, the players, pundits and fans alike must be willing to deal with the hustle and bustle that only the Big Apple can provide. Rowdy crowds, and expensive french fries become overshadowed by the 40 arches of Grand Slam chaos. With a story to be told on every court and at every food and retail booth on-site, this year’s Open could be one of the most memorable.

Although defending men’s champ Juan Martin del Potro won’t be present because of a persistent wrist injury, and women’s top seed Serena Williams remains sidelined by a freak foot accident, the 256 men and women who have completed the singles fields will be eager to step up, and steal the overpowering spotlight of the year’s final Major.

While Rafael Nadal continues to claw his way toward his first title in New York, Caroline Wozniacki will attempt to prove that she’s worthy of the top seed, and that her finals appearance of a year ago was no fluke. Roger Federer will be adamant on continuing the steam that he created during the summer hard-court swing, and defending champ Kim Clijsters wants nothing more than to stand on the champions podium (once again) with her daughter Jada on the final Sunday.

In search of their first Slam titles, Andy Murray and Jelena Jankovic will be hot the heels of the naysayers, while attempting to prove that their hard-court games stack up against the best players in the world. Fan favorites such and Fernando Verdasco and Elena Dementieva have struggled in recent months, but their baseline proficiency will be feared throughout the fortnight.

Could there be another Melanie Oudin or John Isner moment at this year’s event; moments that would reign supreme in the hearts of tennis fans for the foreseeable future?

It will be hot, and it will cool down when the second week hits, but what will inevitably be the focus of the largest annually attended sporting event in the world remains the electricity and anticipation of the night matches, the ruckus crowds, and the potential emergence or reestablishment of an upcoming or current star.

Let’s now take a look at each draw, and the respective favorites and dark horse candidates.

Men’s Draw:

Nadal Quarter:

There are no battered knees or torn abdominal muscles to hinder the world’s top ranked player at this year’s event, but Nadal will enter his title bid a tad under rehearsed. Losing before the finals of both hard-court Masters 1000 events this summer, Nadal’s form was anything but clay-esque or even grass-esque on the asphalt.

Beginning his campaign against Teymuraz Gabashvili, Nadal could face Philipp Kohlschreiber in a third-round encounter. I watched Nadal take on Kohlschreiber live at the Rogers Cup, and even though the German led by a set, I never felt that Nadal was in trouble of losing the match. There are a few players on the circuit that can defeat Nadal with a one-handed backhand, and although Kohlschreiber has one of the best backhands in the business, he can get tight when the ball is hit over his shoulder.

Ernests Gulbis lurks at the bottom of this quarter, but an even greater threat to the Spaniard at this point could be No. 31 seed David Nalbandian. Lifting his form after two Davis Cup singles victories, Nalbandian has been on a tear as of late, which was highlighted by capturing the Washington event. The Argentine possesses exactly the type of baseline trickery that can halt Nadal in his tracks, and a deep run by the former top three player is certainly possible.

Fernando Verdasco is the highest seeded player after Nadal in this section, but the muscular Spaniard has seen a drop in form since his tedious clay-court season. Add to the fact that Verdasco recently changed racket companies while recording a 4-6 Tour record since Roland Garros, and the No. 8 seed could be headed for a shorter than expected trip in New York.

Nadal may have trouble winning this event, but his chances of reaching the quarters and potentially facing Nalbandian seem more than likely.

First-round match to watch for: David Ferrer vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov.

Pick: Nadal

Federer Quarter:

Eager to prove that he’s still the man to beat on hard-courts, Federer will begin his New York journey against journeyman Brian Dabul. Sparring with Dabul on countless occasions in the past, Federer won’t show any compassion toward his No. 94 ranked opponent.

Federer’s good fortune in the section would likely take him to the quarterfinal round unscathed, but a potential showdown with No. 5 seed Robin Soderling could bring forth a few interesting dynamics.

A story that got quickly thrown under the rug last year while del Potro won his first title featured Federer’s match against Soderling in the quarterfinals. The Swede played awful in the first two sets, but ended up winning the third set, while forcing a fourth set tiebreak. Soderling’s inability to cope with the wind, coupled with Federer’s great footwork, would end his tournament.

Soderling’s game is vulnerable on a fast hard-court because of the quick bounce and skid of the surface, and he won’t have the luxury of taking roundhouse cuts at his forehand the way he did against Federer at the French Open.

Federer’s slice backhand and eastern return grips are tailor made for the Open, and that should be more than good enough to keep his quarterfinal, and new semifinal streak alive.

Look for Marin Cilic to potentially get hot after a horrible second half of the season, but it’s unlikely that a repeat of his quarterfinal finish of a year ago will be achieved.

Pick: Federer

Djokovic Quarter:

Djokovic surely wasn’t pleased after he mused over his quarter of the draw. Potentially facing two of the more successful players this summer, Djokovic will have more than the heat of the first week to deal with.

Starting off with good friend Viktor Troicki, Djokovic could face the shot-gun serving of German Philipp Petzschner in the second-round. James Blake and Juan Monaco could become potential third-round opponents for the Serb, but neither player has shown any recent form that would indicate an upset.

With the fourth-round well in reach for Djokovic, American Mardy Fish or Cypriot Marcos Baghdatis could be waiting. Both players have had delectable summers on Tour, while finding comfort with the hard-courts under their sneakers. Fish, who will enter New York having won 16 of his past 18 matches since Wimbledon, remains the most dangerous player in the draw ranked outside the top 10. Defeating a who’s who list of ATP stars during the first part of August, Fish could finish off the month in style, and begin September with the tournament of his life.

Baghdatis will also be one to watch in NYC, but his decision to play New Haven last week could leave him fatigued for the early rounds.

Andy Roddick and Nikolay Davydenko will attempt to put recent injury and illness behind them, while smacking their serves and forehands on their favorite surface.

Roddick showed some life in Cincinnati last week by reaching the semifinals, and he’ll need to be ready to fight for his life during the early rounds. Some have suggested that Roddick’s draw appears easy to start—I would agree with those sentiments through his first two rounds—but a third-round match against Gael Monfils could get complicated, and a fourth-round tussle with Davydenko won’t be a gimme.

Although Roddick does lead Davydenko 5-1 in career head-to-head meetings, he does trail Monfils 4-3. Putting aside previous meetings against either man, I do believe that Roddick’s inability to punish either his forehand or backhand wing won’t allow him to defeat bigger or clean ball strikers.

His serve will only take him so far.

With that being said, I’ve enjoyed watching Fish find his potential after a long haul on Tour, and his time appears to be now or never for a big result. Fish’s road to the semifinals won’t be easy; he’ll have to likely take out Djokovic and Roddick along the way, but the American is playing with a greater sense of urgency these days, and he’s not backing off from bringing his heat on the big points.

Look for Fish to embrace his serve and backhand, along with the New York crowd.

Pick: Fish

Murray Quarter:

The tenacious Scot will once again begin what he hopes is a maiden Grand Slam victory. Reaching the Open final in 2008, Murray has continued to stay in the hard-court conversation for a number of years, but his inability to amp up his game against the heavier hitters has cost him. To Murray’s credit, though, he did show signs of a more potent plan of attack in capturing the Toronto event, while dusting Nadal and Federer in successive straight set matches.

This is Grand Slam action however, and Murray’s innate arsenal of passive play will not work over a two week span.

Beginning his event against talented Slovak player Lukas Lacko, Murray could face either Stanislas Wawrinka or Wimbledon quarterfinalist Yen-Hsun Lu in the third-round. I can’t foresee Murray struggling to reach the fourth-round, where an interesting encounter against Sam Querrey could take place.

Murray did lose to Querrey in the Los Angeles final, and once again succumbed to the pace of a harder hitting opponent. Querrey has shown jitters in the past when playing the bigger events, and there’s no question that it doesn’t get any bigger than the US Open.

Wimbledon finalist Tomas Berdych resides as the tournament’s No. 7 seed, and it should be noted that hard-courts are indeed his favorite surface. Showing the type of consistency this season that was envisioned for him in his teens, Berdych will be a tough opponent for anyone to face if he’s on.

John Isner remains the wildcard pick in this section, but his bum ankle will likely force him to withdraw.

With Isner not posing a threat for Berdych, I’d say that this section will likely follow the seedings.

If Berdych and Murray do face off, it will be interesting to see if the Scot will step out of his comfort zone and lace his groundstrokes with conviction, or, will he allow Berdych to control the tempo.

Will Murray even have a choice?

Something tells me, though, that Murray will find a way to break down Berdych’s demeanor, and avenge his French Open defeat.

Pick: Murray

Quarterfinals: Nadal vs. Nalbandian; Murray vs. Berdych; Roddick vs. Fish; Federer vs. Soderling

Semifinals: Nadal vs. Murray; Fish vs. Federer

Finals: Murray vs. Federer

Champion: Federer

***

Women’s Draw:

Wozniacki Quarter:

Returning to the site of her first Major final, top seed Wozniacki will have a boat load of stern competitors in her path if she intends on reaching the second weekend.

Beginning with US youngster Chelsey Gullickson, Wozniacki could face either Aravane Rezai or Maria Sharapova in fourth-round action. While Rezai can rival Wozniacki in on-court intensity, former champ Sharapova remains one of the hardest hitters on the circuit.

My concerns for Wozniacki coming into the event stem from her hectic schedule. Playing virtually every week on Tour, the Danish roadrunner is bound to hit the wall at some point. However, Wozinacki has played some stellar tennis as of late, and a potential clash with Sharapova would be a proverbial popcorn match.

Although Sharapova has improved her play this year, her forehand and tight serve could break down against Wozniacki’s backboard game.

Svetlana Kuznetsova will be a name to watch in the section, and her first-round match against Kimiko Date Krumm will pose a difficult challenge. Still, I like the way Kuznetsova manages her game on hard-courts, and her clay-court foundation has always transitioned well in New York.

Na Li remains the highest seed in this section after Wozniacki, and her road to a potential quarterfinal spot appears largely unchallenged. Apart from Kuznetsova in her path, Li should advance past the likes of Anna Chakvetadze, Yaroslava Shvedova, and Maria Kirilenko.

Li did reach the quarterfinals last year—losing to Clijsters—and another final eight run should be achieved by the No. 8 seed.

I wouldn’t however bet against Wozniacki’s ability to grind through matches. She may not possess the biggest backhand or the the most violent serve in the business, but her game does hold up well under pressure, and that’s what Grand Slam action is all about.

Pick: Wozniacki

Clijsters Quarter:

The defending champ will be riding the good vibe of taking home her second title in New York during her comeback last year. Clijsters does have a year of rhythm coming into the event this time around, and her draw for the most part appears manageable. Starting off against Greta Arn, Clijsters could face either Ana Ivanovic or No. 13 seed Marian Bartoli in the fourth-round. Ivanovic has shown signs of her old self in recent months, but her ball toss and nervous energy remain far too detrimental for a deep march.

Bartoli on the other hand has shown the ability to portray herself as one of the best competitors on Tour. Her ability to close out matches has been questionable in the past, but her desire to prevail has never been in doubt.

Daniela Hantuchova will take on Dinara Safina in the best first-round match in this section, but in terms of challengers to knocking off Clijsters, I’d be more inclined to pick No. 12 seed Elena Dementieva.

Dementieva has been through it all on Tour: Bad serving, better serving, near wins, and devastating losses. To her credit, though, she’s always seemed to handle her career with class, and her finals appearance in 2004 won’t hurt her chances of reaching the second week.

However, Clijsters does hold the key to this event, and her familiarity with Ashe Stadium should help her against an overwhelmed opponent. Although Dementieva won’t get distracted by the Center Court crowd, the zipping forehands and backhands of Clijsters would get her attention early and often.

Pick: Clijsters

Venus Williams Quarter:

Is spite of her sister missing the event with injury, Venus has popped on the radar once again to hopefully recapture her glory days of 2000 and 2001. The 30-year-old American has had a difficult time at the Majors this year, failing to advance past the quarterfinals in three previous attempts. However, apart from her overwhelming success at Wimbledon, the surface at the US Open remains the best for Venus’ blistering serve, and flat ground game.

Beginning her road against Roberta Vinci, Venus could face Tsvetana Pironkova in the third-round (the women who defeated her at Wimbledon this year), with a potential showdown against No. 16 seed Shahar Peer in the round of sixteen.

Barring a forehand meltdown from Venus, she should remain in line for a likely quarterfinal contest against No. 10 seed Victoria Azarenka.

Azarenka did sustain a blister during the Montreal event, but the spunky Bulgarian appears fit, and ready to pounce on a productive New York campaign.

Last year’s tournament sensation Melanie Oudin is also in this section, but if recent results are any indicator, a first-round loss to a qualifier wouldn’t be out of the question.

French Open champ Francesca Schiavone won back-to-back matches for the first time in Montreal since her triumph in Paris, but the hard-courts in North America have never been to her liking.

All in all, Venus was granted a great section to ease into the semifinals, and it would be truly shocking if that result did not take place.

Pick: Venus

Jankovic Quarter:

Needing a pick-me-up performance in a major way, Jankovic will enter New York with the ambition of bettering her 2008 finals result. Finding herself up against Simona Halep in the first-round, Jankovic could face last year’s semifinalist Yanina Wickmayer in the round of 16.

Jankovic has always been a player that embraces the big stage, and she could provide the New York crowd with more than enough sparks if she faces Vera Zvonareva in the quarterfinals.

Zvonareva has held her mettle together this year better than in previous seasons, and that has led her to a top 10 ranking and a finals appearance at Wimbledon. She did play a horrendous match against Wozniacki in the finals of Montreal, but her come-from-behind victory over Clijsters in the quarterfinals proved that her ability to fight, and refrain from destroying anything in her path has improved.

Jankovic remains the favorite in the section, but Zvonareva has proven (for the time being, anyway) that her composed demeanor has translated into sparkling results.

First-round match to watch for: Bethanie Mattek-Sands vs. Anabel Medina Garrigues. The knee-high socks of Mattek-Sands will get you every time.

Pick: Zvonareva

Quarterfinals: Wozniacki vs. Li; Jankovic vs. Zvonareva; Azarenka vs. Venus; Dementieva vs. Clijsters

Semifinals: Wozniacki vs. Zvonareva; Venus vs. Clijsters

Finals: Wozniacki vs. Clijsters

Champion: Clijsters

Pilot Pen Tennis: Men’s and Women’s Draw Preview and Analysis

by: Nima Naderi

Pilot Pen Tennis—New Haven, Connecticut

The final week of the US Open Olympus Series will feature one of only four events on the calender year where both men and women compete at the same event. While the Pilot Pen tournament is usually sparse in star power due to the US Open taking place the very next week, this year’s event will feature hometown hero James Blake, and world No. 2 Caroline Wozniacki.

With Blake suffering from various injuries throughout the season, and Wozniacki becoming the forerunner favorite at the US Open with the withdrawals of Serena Williams and Justine Henin, the 48-player men’s field, and the 30-draw women’s field, will provide a final indicator towards the favorites heading into New York.

There are no top 10 players taking part in the men’s field this year, with Marcos Baghdatis, Thomaz Bellucci, Fernando Gonzalez, and Mardy Fish rounding out the top four seeds. Other notables players to watch out for in New Haven will be No. 5 seed Andrey Golubev, No. 7 seed Alexandr Dolgopolov, Taylor Dent, and No. 11 seed Xavier Malisse.

Fish could be coming in fatigued after his world-beater effort in Cincinnati, and his productivity at the event could be limited. The same could be said for Baghdatis, who defeated Rafael Nadal during his semifinal march in Ohio. Fernando Gonzalez will see his first action since injuring his knee at the French Open, and although he will be eager to put forth a good effort, I wouldn’t expect much from the swashbuckling Chilean.

The men’s field will likely be dominated by a multitude of upsets, and it would be wise to either choose a few of the lower ranked seeded players, or an aspiring American to make some noise.

Dolgopolov may just be the seeded player to look at this week, while Taylor Dent’s menacing serve could provide him with a stellar result. Malisse has also been playing some great ball as of late, and the talented Belgium remains one of the elite ball-strikers on the circuit.

When looking through the top half of the draw, I’d say that a healthy Fish could continue his dominance, but one has to consider that he may pull out and conserve his energy for New York. Baghdatis remain the logic favorite to reach the semifinals, but he hasn’t shown the ability to provide solid back-to-back weeks on Tour.

In saying that, I like the chances of Dent and Thiemo de Bakker to advance to the semifinals, with the young Dutch player reaching his first Tour-level final.

The bottom half of the draw would likely carry the upset trend, and that could result in a fortunate week for Dolgopolov and Malisse. Both players can hit any shot in the book, and considering their flat hit strokes, a semifinal showdown is not out of the question. Blake’s campaign will be closely monitored, but his form as of late has been quite miserable. Although everyone on the campus of Yale would like to see Blake provide a deep run, I have a feeling that his week could end after his first or second-round match.

Viktor Troicki is another powerful hard-court player to watch for, and his draw does seem rewarding until a potential third-round contest against Dolgopolov. No. 2 seed Bellucci always gives 100 percent when he’s on-court, but his western forehand and deep court positioning will be exposed early on.

Denis Istomin has picked up his level of play this year, and he could be in line for a few upsets. He did suffer an injury in his second-round contest against Roger Federer last week, and his movement could still be hindered. I still like Malisse and Dolgopolov to come through in this half of the draw, with the veteran Belgium defeating de Bakker in the final.

Onto the women’s field which will be highlighted by four top 10 players. While Wozniacki put forth a confident performance in Montreal, I see no reason for her to stop in New Haven. The Dane is super fit, and does hold the ability to grind through players like no one else on Tour. Her game is full of junk balls and moon balls, but there’s no denying her effectiveness on court. Wozniacki could face Melanie Oudin in her second-round match, a contest that would prove to be more important to the young American than the defending champ.

Oudin hasn’t fulfilled her potential since setting the tennis world on its head last year at the US Open. On the eve of her return to New York, Oudin would be best served to come up with a compelling performance in New Haven, in order to alleviate the pressures of her upcoming Flushing Meadows campaign. Based on what I’ve seen from Oudin as of late, I think it’s safe to say that she’ll have to “believe” and then some in order to recreate her magic of a year ago.

Wozniacki could face No. 4 seed Elena Dementieva or No. 6 seed Marion Bartoli in the semifinals, with either Flavia Pennetta or Alisa Kleybanova in the quarterfinals. Bartoli all but choked her chances away from a third set with Victoria Azarenka in Montreal last week, but I did appreciate her fighting spirit, and that should pay off for her in the coming weeks.

Dementieva has improved her serve a great deal over the past year, but she still remains short on match play, and that could cost her against the top seeded Dane.

All in all, I like what Wozniacki is currently bringing to the court, and a finals appearance in New Haven seems likely.

The bottom half of the draw will feature this year’s French Open champion and finalist. While Francesca Schiavone managed to pick up her level of play in Montreal last week, Sam Stosur was forced to pull out of the event with an injury. Stosur has encountered much better success than Schiavone since the Roland Garros final, but her form on hard-courts hasn’t matched her proficiency on the clay.

Stosur is seeded No. 2 this week in New Haven, and she could get a test right out of the gate against Jie Zheng. No. 8 seed Nadia Petrova could loom as a potential quarterfinal opponent for Stosur, a match up that could spell the end of the Australian’s week. Petrova hasn’t quite been at her best this season, but her intense baseline driven game can upset any woman in the world.

With US Open semifinalist Yanina Wickmayer in this section, Schiavone could be dusted in the quarterfinal round. The trouble for Schiavone remains that former world No. 1 Dinara Safina will be her first-round opponent. The two slugged out a third-round meeting in Canada last week, a match that Schiavone sliced her way to victory. Something tells me though, that Safina won’t lose two straight matches against the Italian.

While Maria Kirilenko and Daniela Hantuchova also lurk in this section, I’d say that Wickmayer and Petrova remain the two players due for a big result. However, although I’m taking Petrova to reach the finals, I still like Wozniacki to ride her wave of confidence into the US Open with a victory in Connecticut.

Cincinnati Masters: Semifinal Preview

Western & Southern Financial Group Masters—Cincinnati, Ohio

The dog days of summer have continued through the Cincinnati event this week. Where Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic found it difficult to repeat their glorious charges in Toronto; Andy Roddick and Mardy Fish used their rested form to set up a much anticipated home-country showdown.

The tournament was six-points away from a highly anticipated match between Roger Federer and Nadal, but Marcos Baghdatis spoiled that party by hitting some jaw-dropping serves. With Baghdatis taking out Federer earlier this year at Indian Wells, the 16-time Grand Slam champ will be aware of the dangerous and flamboyant Cypriot.

With an American battle and a revenge match ready to light up Cincinnati’s Center Court, let’s take a brief look into both semifinal contests.

Andy Roddick vs. Mardy Fish

Roddick leads the pair’s head-to-head series 9-2.

It’s been an interesting summer for both Roddick and Fish. Where Roddick has come into Cincinnati off illness and lack of form, Fish has elevated his level of play after largely improving his fitness. Nabbing two tournament titles to begin the summer, Fish has saved his best tennis for Ohio by defeating four current or former top 10 players in succession: Gilles Simon, Fernando Verdasco, Richard Gasquet, and Murray.

If there was ever a time—a well earned time—for Fish to make another Masters finals, it’s here and now. Attacking the net and using his silky backhand to open up the court, Fish could be in line for another top tier victory.

In order for Fish to reach his biggest final of the year, he’ll have to defeat a man who he lived with as a junior.

Finding some last minute confidence heading into the US Open, Roddick clipped Robin Soderling in a nail-biting night clash, before dusting an unsure Djokovic in the quarterfinals. Roddick has been serving well this week, but what has impressed me the most about the former top ranked American has been his defensive and movement. Slicing and dicing his way back into the center of the court, Roddick has used his baseline experience to reach his third Masters 1000 semifinal of the season.

However, Roddick’s defense might just get him into trouble against Fish on Saturday.

Fish has been playing like a man on a mission, and he will not get tentative against Roddick when it counts. Holding his own against Murray in the quarterfinals, Fish’s net play and detonating serve were spot on during the crucial moments of the final set tiebreak.

Fish certainly holds a better backhand than Roddick, and his serve remains on par with his higher ranked foe. Roddick’s slice backhand is slightly better, but Fish’s improved mobility and volleying will allow him to exercise options that he once couldn’t execute.

In saying that, Fish will be more fatigued than Roddick coming in, and Roddick does hold a substantial head-to-head series lead in their career matches. But Fish has shown the ability to cast aside many formidable players as of late, and could very well add two straight wins over Roddick to that list.

Roddick pretty much summed up what we should all expect before heading into this encounter.

“Well, I mean, there’s gonna be no surprises. I mean, I think we probably know each other better than we might know ourselves, especially our playing styles.”

If that’s the case, then Roddick should be well aware that Fish has never been in better form. Taking that into account, look for Fish to crash the net and continue his improbable run this summer.

Pick: Fish in three sets

Roger Federer vs. Marcos Baghdatis

Federer leads the pair’s head-to-head series 6-1.

Dodging the potential bullet of meeting his chief rival prior to this year’s final Major, Federer will have another opportunity to avenge a loss to a younger opponent on Saturday. Losing to Baghdatis at the Indian Wells tournament in March, Federer was the only top four seed to advance to this year’s semifinal in Cincinnati.

Leading Baghdatis by a comfortable head-to-head margin prior to his loss in California, Federer will look to make good on the match points that he squandered the last time that he faced the Cypriot.

Baghdatis was stellar against Nadal in their semifinal match by winning 87 percent of his first serve points, and in order to pocket his second straight monumental upset of the week, he’ll have to keep that percentage at the same level. Baghdatis has always been a shot-maker of the finest caliber, and his ability to dictate back-court play on a hard-court is what makes him dangerous.

However, what Federer proved in Toronto last week—albeit being aided by the nervous serving of Tomas Berdych—was the ability to use his experience and calm court presence to defeat an opponent who had ousted him at Wimbledon and Miami.

The luxury that Baghdatis won’t have against Federer—that he enjoyed against Nadal—will be the better serving and hard-court forehand of the Swiss.

Federer’s serve was built for faster court play, and his forehand grip can handle lower shots and harder serves better than Nadal’s.

Furthermore, Baghdatis will be up against a player who finds himself at ease on the asphalt, and who marches into the semifinals with only one completed match under his belt this week. Although Baghdatis is four years younger than Federer, he did have to spend over two and a half hours to dismiss Nadal.

The stars could very well be aligning for Federer with the US Open rapidly approaching, and his easy road to the semifinals should pay off for him against Baghdatis.

Baghdatis will be hard-pressed to win in three sets, and a first set lead with be vital.

Pick: Federer in straight sets

by: Nima Naderi

Cincinnati Masters 1000: Draw Preview and Analysis

Western & Southern Financial Group Masters—Cincinnati, Ohio

Taking their experiences from Toronto into the summer’s second consecutive Masters 1000 event, the ATP World Tour will next turn its attentions to the Cincinnati Masters in Ohio.

There’s something to be said about winning two Masters titles in row. Although the status of the week-long tournaments will never be seen in the same light as winning one of the year’s four Major championships, the draws at the Masters level often hold tougher competition.

Playing in the heat of the North American summer is never easy, and if the weather in Toronto was any indicator, Cincinnati’s playing conditions will be equally as tough.

Headlining the 56-man field this year will be Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, and Andy Murray. The four men reached the semifinals in Toronto, and they will be hard-pressed to repeat the same feat again.

Standing in the way of the fab four will be two Americans who were missing in the Toronto field. Although Mardy Fish and John Isner haven’t claimed Grand Slam or Masters level glory as of yet, both men are rested and have already put forth respectable summers thus far.

While top seed Nadal will continue to improve his hard-court game for the US Open, players like Robin Soderling, Fernando Verdasco, and Nikolay Davydenko will be adamant on honing their skill-sets for the year’s final Slam.

American Andy Roddick is also back in action, and recently disclosed that he’s been suffering from a mild form of mononucleosis. Roddick is a former champion in Cincinnati, and he’ll have very little margin to work with as he prepares for his home-country Major. Former top four player James Blake is also in the field, and the struggling 30-year-old will be looking to replicate the form that saw him reach the finals in 2007. Blake has only won 10 matches on the season, but he has historically played his best tennis on the asphalt.

With the Toronto event providing the springboard for the next stage of the US Open Series, let’s now take a look at the top four seeds and their roads to a potential second straight top four semifinal.

Nadal Quarter:

After losing in straight sets to Murray in the Toronto semifinals, Nadal admitted that his serve was “horrible,” and that it needed work.

The Spaniard’s serve isn’t the only aspect of his game that he’ll need to improve if he’s to win his first-ever Cincinnati title. Nadal’s forehand was hit with far too much spin throughout his four matches in Canada, and he was also very negative in his match against the Scot. Nadal did step up his return of serve on a few occasions, but for the most part his returns were hit short and passive.

Nadal will face either a qualifier or good friend Feliciano Lopez in the second-round. Nadal and Lopez are constant practice partners, and the lower-ranked Spaniard did come away with a victory during their most recent Queen’s Club battle. Taking the surface into account and the fact that Nadal is fresh heading into Cincinnati, a straight set romp over Lopez should be achieved.

Moving along in the draw, Nadal could set up a Toronto rematch with Stan Wawrinka in the third-round, or another Spanish affair with Nicolas Almagro. Wawrinka put forth a great effort against Nadal the last time out, while Almagro will need to keep the cap on the kettle if he’s going to translate his clay-court success towards the hard-courts of North America.

Marin Cilic and Marcos Baghdatis are also in this quarter, but both men have been too inconsistent in recent weeks to count on. However, Baghdatis did recently reach the finals in Washington, and Cilic is far too good of a player to continue the current slump that he’s in. The tall Croat has a wonderful game on hard-courts, and should be primed for a stellar result sooner than later.

The big name (and big worry) for Nadal in this section is Tomas Berdych. The Czech has been on everyone’s mind since the French Open, and he nearly made it three straight wins over Federer in Toronto. Berdych has vastly improved his mental focus throughout this year, and he’s starting to believe that he should be a top favorite in every tournament.

I was really impressed with Berdych’s play in Toronto, and I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if he clips Nadal in a potential quarterfinal match.

However, Nadal did say that he’s ready to work hard and improve on his hard-court game before the upcoming US Open. I’m not totally convinced that he’ll win in New York later this summer, and a match against Berdych would provide all sorts of challenges. But Nadal is the master of finding a way through the difficult moments of any contest, and although he looked down and out against Murray, one has to believe that his spirits will improve in Mason.

Get ready for another great night match if Nadal and Berydch face off, a match that would see Nadal hopefully serve better and go for his shots.

Berdych became the “old Berdych” to end his campaign in Toronto, and that player won’t be good enough to defeat Nadal in Cincinnati.

Pick: Nadal

Djokovic Quarter:

After almost melting away in the second-round in Toronto, Djokovic picked up his level and almost reached the finals last week. The Serb played only night matches after his dog-fight with Julien Benneteau, and that will be a variable to watch out for in Cincinnati. There’s no question that Djokovic is a supremely talented player, but he’ll need the scheduling committee to hook him up with some night matches if he’s to move on.

Starting off against Radek Stepanek or Viktor Troicki, Djokovic could potentially meet either David Nalbandian, Ivan Ljubicic, or Isner in the third-round. We all know what Nalbandian’s been up to lately, and Ljubicic’s serve can never be taken for granted. The X-factor in this quarter could very well be Isner. The Georgia native did take last week off in order to rest, and he’s been in good form as of late. But Isner did pull out of Toronto citing fatigue, and his road to the weekend in Cincinnati is questionable.

Other players to watch out for in this section include No. 5 seed Robin Soderling, No. 9 seed Roddick, and former finalist Lleyton Hewitt. Apart from the powerful Swede, Roddick and Hewitt will enter the event carrying injury and illness. Roddick recently admitted that he’s been suffering from mono, while Hewitt has been battling a leg injury. Hewitt will likely not be a factor this week, while Roddick’s stamina remains unknown.

I’ve been waiting for Soderling to put forth a great outdoor hard-court result, and this week could be his chance. Falling to Nalbandian last week, Soderling remains confident and should rebound nicely in Mason. The missile-hitting Swede has proven that his lone objective is to win tennis matches, and he could turn a few more heads in this quarter.

Although Djokovic played great to end his Toronto journey, one has to think that a tough day session match will be his worst enemy. Soderling though, has shown that regardless of the heat or the opponent on the other side of the net, his year has included many draw-busting results.

Look for Soderling to get hot in Cincy, and then carry his momentum in New York.

Pick: Soderling

Federer Quarter:

Flying mighty under the humid Canadian sky, Federer dialed in his experience and court sense to reach the finals. The defending Cincy champ appeared relaxed throughout his week in Toronto, but his game did showcase slower movement and the inability to continue his momentum. Defeating his 2010 nemesis Berdych in the quarterfinals, Federer relied on his serve more than any other shot to advance. I mentioned throughout my coverage last week that Federer has indeed lost a step. His slower movement has inevitably resulted from the success that he’s encountered. Winning over 700 career matches is bound to take its toll on a player’s legs.

Federer does have some talented (but flaky) players to deal with in this section, beginning presumably with American James Blake. Blake has become a fraction of the player that he once was, but he still holds enough power behind his forehand to create an upset. Blake, like Federer, has also lost a step after approaching his 30th birthday.

Athletic Frenchman Gael Monfils is also in this quarter, but he did encounter a left shoulder injury against Murray last week after diving for a ball. Go figure. Monfils has the court coverage and ball speed to dismiss anyone in the world, but his shot-selection and ability to fight when it’s mattered has been suspect at times.

David Ferrer will face tricky Ukrainian Alexandr Dolgopolov in his opening hurdle. I’ve talked extensively about Dolgopolov and he could very well turn into the breakout player of 2010. Ferrer is a great fighter though, and he will be tough as nails to defeat right off the bat.

Sam Querrey (will once again) attempt to rid himself of the “not being a big tournament player” label. Losing in the second-round of Toronto and the first-round in Washington, Querrey has done great when it hasn’t mattered, but he’s faltered when the world has watched. Querrey will face unorthodox German Philipp Petzschner in his first match.

Davydenko is the second highest seed in this quarter, but based on what we’ve seen from the Russian as of late, I wouldn’t expect much a run. Struggling on Tour since suffering from a broken wrist in March, Davydenko holds a 5-7 record since his return.

Federer may show some signs of fatigue in Cincinnati after his long week in Toronto, but the players in his section—apart from Ferrer—haven’t proved the overall mettle this year to defeat a top player.

Pick: Federer

Murray Quarter:

Proving that he still holds the status as an elite best out of three set player, Murray will march into Cincinnati in search of his second career title.

Displaying the court craft in Canada that allowed him to take home his first trophy of the season, Murray will face a competent quarter of baseline players. With the likelihood of taking on Jeremy Chardy in his second-round match, Murray could battle Ernests Gulbis or Jurgen Melzer in the round of 16. Melzer and Gulbis were ousted early in Toronto, and both players will be motivated to gather a few wins heading into New York.

An unseeded player who will be closely watched this week is Mardy Fish. Winning two titles after Wimbledon, Fish decided to sit out of the Toronto qualifying last week and better prepare himself to mount a serious charge in Cincinnati. I like what I’ve been seeing from Fish this summer, and he could be in line for a surprise US Open showing. Believing that he belongs at the top of game, Fish’s improved fitness and easy-flowing serve could break open this quarter.

Fernando Verdasco remains the highest ranked player in this section after Murray, but his form since the French Open has suggested that his game is weary. I was amazed by Verdasco’s fall-to-pieces loss against Chardy in Canada, and his confidence is anything but high at the moment.

Furthermore, after taking Murray’s inevitable letdown into account, while witnessing Verdasco swear his way out of Toronto, Fish appears the go-to player to rule this section.

It wasn’t too long ago that Robby Ginepri reached the semifinals of the US Open. The year was 2005 to be exact. Could history repeat itself once again and have another American journeyman light up the summer season?

Fish has defeated Murray twice this year, and holds a 2-1 head-to-head series lead over Verdasco. Knowing that this may be his final year to create a significant dent on Tour, look for Fish to stun this quarter and remain a contender in Flushing Meadows.

Pick: Fish

Semifinals: Nadal vs. Federer; Fish vs. Soderling

Finals: Nadal vs. Soderling

Champion: Soderling

Rogers Cup: Finals Preview—Federer vs. Murray

by: Nima Naderi

Rogers Cup—Toronto, Canada

Under passive and forceful play, Roger Federer and Andy Murray have earned a spot in the culminating final in Toronto.

For Federer, his luck came in the form of surviving a match game down against Tomas Berdych in the semifinals. The gun-slinging Czech had the match on his racket, but couldn’t cash in on a third straight victory.

Federer has served exceeding well throughout the week; a shot that has held him close to the top of the rankings for the last four years. Kicking and sliding his serve when he’s needed to, Federer has also clobbered his delivery at the right moments. Not moving as well as he once did, the 16-time Major winner has proven that he still has what it takes to compete at the Masters level.

Let’s give some much deserved credit to the defending champ. Entering Toronto without a coach or a tournament title on the season, Murray defeated Gael Monfils, David Nalbandian, and Rafael Nadal in succession. Although the Scot hasn’t won a Slam title to date, his record and consistency throughout the Masters events remains stunning.

Murray played a near perfect match to defeat Nadal in the semifinals, and he’ll have to adjust his tactics if he’s to upend Federer for a seventh time.

The forecast has called for rain and thunder showers on Sunday, and at the very least the conditions will be overcast and slower.

Who will that favor, and will it even make a difference?

Let’s now take a look at tomorrow’s championship preview.

Roger Federer vs. Andy Murray

Murray leads the pair’s head-to-head series 6-5.

What Federer and Murray have accomplished better than anyone else this week has been weathering the storm. Both men have lost sets here and there, and both players have saved their share of break points. But throughout the chaos, late night press-conferences, and long rides back to the hotel; Federer and Murray have allowed their rackets and footwork to brush aside the other 54 men in the field, and set up their 12th career meeting.

Federer has defeated Murray the last three times that they’ve met, but the Scot holds a 3-1 career record in Masters events.

Taking the conditions of the final into account, Federer will have to deal with the heat of playing during the day, and he won’t have to comfort of the flood lights over his shoulders. Federer has also encountered two grueling three set matches, and that may become an issue considering that he just turned 29. Federer has been serving well this week, and that could inevitably save the day for him against his younger opponent.

Murray hasn’t done anything incredibly well throughout the event, but he’s played his percentages accordingly. Taking his chances when they’ve been presented, Murray will be best served to make Federer beat him with his backhand. The Swiss did a pretty good job of defending his one-hander against Djokovic, but there were also countless occasions when he was forced to lunge and stab at his backhand. I’ve said throughout this week that Federer is not moving anywhere near the level that he used to, and whether or not that’s a byproduct of a decrease in foot speed or anticipation, the end result has been a slower player.

Murray doesn’t have the serve and volley gear at his disposal, but his ability to run all day and return well remain the cornerstones of his success. The No. 4 seed will be able to stay out there for three full sets if need be, and his efficient semifinal victory will allow him to hold the freshness card.

Murray did lose a heart-breaker to Federer in Australia; a match which brought the Scot to visible tears. A win in Toronto won’t replace a Grand Slam victory, but capturing a seventh career win over the all-time Major leader won’t hurt his confidence either.

Federer will be hard pressed to win another three setter on Sunday, but his serve should be around to aid him when he’s in danger. If the Swiss star can hold onto his delivery throughout the latter stages of the match, then he should have some opportune moments to pounce on Murray’s weak second serve.

It’s taken four matches and a great deal of momentum shifting moments for Federer and Murray to get to this point. With only one match to go, I’ll leave the potential champion in the hands of the man who has played the best tennis this week.

Where Federer has fought and entertained two sold out night sessions, Murray has sweated and played with the proficiently of a man on a mission.

A week of well earned ball-striking and point construction will usually end on the right note. Murray has been that man this week, and an end to his Toronto journey should result with a title defense.

Pick: Murray

Rogers Cup: Semifinal Preview

by: Nima Naderi

Rogers Cup—Toronto, Canada

Who could have asked for a better way to start the “true” hard-court season?

With the top four players in the world advancing through a treacherous week of sweltering action, Saturday’s semifinal matches in Toronto will feature two blockbuster encounters.

Rafael Nadal, who will be looking to reach his seventh final of the season, will face Andy Murray for the third time this year. Telling a packed room of journalists that he wants to remain in “super glue,” form for remainder of the year, Nadal will be up against his toughest opponent of the week in Murray.

Roger Federer is no stranger to the final weekend at the Rogers Cup, which includes winning the event on two occasions.

Earning a confidence boosting win over Tomas Berdych on Friday evening, Federer will next battle a familiar foe in Novak Djokovic.

Djokovic has gained the good grace of avoiding the heat of the day since his near first-round debacle. Rolling through Victor Hanescu and Jeremy Chardy in successive rounds, Djokovic encountered a shoulder injury midway through the second set of his quarterfinal match.

Djokovic, like Federer, is in need a big tournament win in order to salvage his relatively poor year.

While everyone gets their popcorn and preferred beverage of choice ready for Saturday’s action, let’s begin with a brief look into the historic day of action at the Rexall Center.

Rafael Nadal vs. Andy Murray

Nadal leads the pair’s head-to-head series 8-3.

The week started off with Nadal needing an hour and a half to capture the first set over Stan Wawrinka, before settling in and punching through a much needed victory over Philipp Kohlschreiber. Hitting his return or serve shorter than he would have liked, Nadal has attacked the net when required, and hit through the court with penetrating venom off of his backhand. Nadal hasn’t hit his stride yet this week, but he’s only lost one match since March, which would indicate that his match toughness in unparalleled.

Murray comes into Toronto with his a lighter entourage than in previous years. Parting ways with his long-time coach Miles Maclagan, Murray is currently coach-less, but does have the trusty eyes of his mother, Judy around.

Losing one set enroute to the semifinals, Murray did look ultra sharp against David Nalbandian on Friday. Murray’s first serve and strut have been booming this week, and he’ll certainly need his chest out against Nadal on Saturday.

Defeating the Spaniard earlier this year in Australia, Murray has had his best moments against Nadal on hard-courts. However, when looking closely at Murray’s three career victories over the top seed, one glaring commonality pierces through the stat sheet: Nadal was arguably been injured or fatigued in all three matches.

Nadal withdrew during the third set of their Australian Open encounter in January, while hobbling through a three set final loss in Rotterdam in 2009. Murray did come up aces against Nadal during the semifinals of 2008 US Open, but that match was highlighted by the fatigue of a marathon (and successful) summer by the Spaniard.

Murray shouldn’t lose credit for those victories, but he’ll need to defeat a fresh and injury free Nadal to validate those previous wins. Murray’s second serve and forehand aren’t the biggest in the game, but his return-of-serve and backhand can certainly disrupt any opponent. If Murray has any chance of reaching the finals, he’ll have to match the Spaniard’s intensity, while holding a high first serve percentage.

Nadal on the other hand has some room to play with, even if he’s struggling. His fighting spirit will always allow him to remain a contender, and with the health of his knees in top form, he’s back to his usual roadrunner ways.

When it’s all said and done, the winner of this contest will be the one who can be the most consistent from the baseline. Seeing as both players love to skid and scratch the hard-courts of North America, perseverance and mental concentration will be vital towards victory. Nadal can innately keep his temper under control more so than Murray, but the Scot is without question just as good, or better (in some ways) than Nadal on hard-courts.

However, Nadal is the man with winning streak at the moment, and he’s historically flourished in Canada after he’s had a successful spring.

Could be a classic in the making.

Pick: Nadal in three sets.

Roger Federer vs. Novak Djokovic

Federer leads the pair’s head-to-head series 9-5.

Entering Toronto with the intention of winning a big title for the first time since Australia, Federer scrapped through a riveting match against Berdych in the quarterfinals. Although the Swiss was tentative on his return of serve, he did manage to fight back from a 5-2 deficit in the final set. Federer’s movement was also exposed by the Czech—a tactic that Djokovic will also try to employ.

If Federer has lost one major component in his game, it’s his court speed. Playing nearly 900 matches during his illustrious career, the elasticity and explosiveness in the Swiss’ legs has definitely lost some zip. Playing a faster opponent in Djokovic on Saturday, Federer will have to create his opportunities from a first strike standpoint, and not remain passive like he did against Berdych.

Although Djokovic’s straight set win over Jeremy Chardy seemed impressive, the Frenchman was completely out of his element during the quarterfinal contest.

Djokovic has defeated Federer on four occasions during hard-court matches, and his ability to use his defensive foundation against the Swiss might be good enough to pull off a victory. The Serb hasn’t shown me anything new this week in terms of strategy or improved fitness, but the current world No. 2 has the talent and wherewithal to defeat any player in the world.

Federer has used his drop shot when he’s needed to this week, and that play may just work against the laterally quick Serb. Djokovic is also no stranger to the beloved drop shot, and he will not be ashamed to hit it against the 16-time Grand Slam champ.

Federer’s serve and placement have been much better than Djokovic throughout this season, while the No. 2 seed can lay claim to hitting much more depth and angle off of his backhand.

Djokovic mentioned during his post match presser that Federer likes “to pick up his level of play towards the tail end of an event.” Djokovic has been a first hand recipient of Federer’s “increased level,” by losing to the Swiss during fifth semifinals or better. Djokovic does have the luxury of defeating Federer during their last outing in Basel, Switzerland last fall, a tournament which had named its stadium after their hometown hero.

Both these great champions know exactly what to expect from one another, and that’s precisely the reason why this match could go the distance.

With no where hide, and only the court to run on, look for Djokovic to come out strong, and for Federer to finish even stronger.

His win over Berdych was a nail-biter, but now that the semifinals have come along, Federer’s familiar position in a Masters final will once again be fulfilled.

Pick: Federer in three sets.

Rogers Cup: Quarterfinal Preview

Rogers Cup—Toronto, Canada

The final eight at this year’s Rogers Cup will feature the top four players in the world, alongside four potential spoilers.

The top eight seeds didn’t make it to the quarterfinals in Toronto this year—the way they did in Montreal last year—but when you consider the way David Nalbandian and Jeremy Chardy have fought this week, Friday’s action could hold a monumental upset.

With a full plate of enthralling tennis ahead, let’s now take a look at the respective quarterfinal match ups.

Rafael Nadal vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber

Nadal leads the pairs head-t0-head series 6-0.

Struggling to shut the door against Stanislas Wawrinka and Kevin Anderson, Nadal showed the inevitable rust that comes with having five weeks off. Miss-firing on his forehand more than he’s used to (he’d never admit that), Nadal has saved his share of break and set points to advance to the quarterfinals.

Striking his backhand with conviction, the biggest positive for Nadal this week has been the health of his knees. He played a grueling first set against Wawrinka, and followed it up by persevering through a tricky second set against Anderson. If anything, Nadal hasn’t looked as good as we’ve seen him this year, but his competitiveness and court sense have remained in top gear.

And how about his opponent Philipp Coleslaw? The under the radar German may never reach the standard of his predecessors Boris Becker and Micheal Stich, but that hasn’t stopped the 26-year-old from picking up a handful of top five career victories.

Kohlschreiber is without question one of this fittest players on the circuit, and he won’t fade physically if he’s pushed to a barn-burner first set. However, the trouble for Kohlschreiber along with anyone else who holds a one-handed backhand remains fighting off the high spin of Nadal’s shots.

Nadal’s game is all about playing the percentages, and he’s well aware that Kohlschreiber’s backhand wing can be exposed if the ball is hit high.

Kohlshreiber’s lack of stature will also hurt him against the Spaniard; his court speed will only get him so far in extended rallies.

Furthermore, I could see the German troubling Nadal for a set and a half, but his lack of a win against the Spaniard can’t be overlooked.

Nadal has been far from his best in Toronto, but he knows Kohlschreiber’s game all to well. That familiarity will bring forth a precise game plan and a place in the semifinals.

Pick: Nadal in straight sets

Novak Djokovic vs. Jeremy Chardy

Djokovic leads the pair’s head-to-head series 4-0.

Enjoying his Grandstand victory on Thursday evening, Djokovic overcame his second-round frailty by dismissing Victor Hanescu in straight sets. Djokovic has been a question mark physically for the entire season, while his serve and forehand have decreased in efficiently. However, like his doubles partner Rafael Nadal, Djokovic plays defense as well as anyone, and more importantly he can grind his way through matches even when his timing is suspect.

It’s been hard to gauge Djokovic’s form this week considering his competition. On the one hand, his match against Julien Benneteau didn’t prove anything except that it was hot, and that Djokovic was lucky to win in two sets. His encounter with Hanescu was a clean performance, but it was apparent early on that the Romanian was never in the Serbian’s league.

Chardy’s road to the quarterfinals has been aided by the house money effect. He was down and out against Fernando Verdasco in the second-round, but he managed to claw his way out of being one game away from elimination. The talent card has never been an issue for Chardy, though, his on-court negatively has lost him his share of matches. His convincing victory over Nikolay Davydenko proved his talent quotient.

I like the loose-limb Frenchman’s game, but do I like it enough to upset Djokovic?

With this match being played under a cool Canadian evening, the sun and heat won’t be able to aid Chardy. Therefore, the match will come down to shot-making and movement, and that’s where Djokovic is by far the better player. Chardy will bring his A-game for the Center Court crowd to witness, but his lack of momentum this season (or during any part of his career) could push him towards defeat.

Djokovic has struggled with pretty much everything this season, but he’s never had any problems with the Frenchman’s arsenal. Winning 12 straight sets against the man of equal age, look for Djokovic to advance to Saturday’s final four.

Pick: Djokovic in straight sets.

Roger Federer vs. Tomas Berdych

Federer leads the pair’s head-to-head series 8-3.

The day’s most anticipated match will look to answer two bold questions: Can Berdych make it three wins in a row against Federer, or will the Swiss avenge his two losses to the Czech this year?

I watched Berdych struggle against Alexandr Dolgopolov earlier on Thursday before showing his improved maturity to pull through. The Berdych of old would have folded after squandering a one set lead, but the new and mobile Wimbledon finalist held it together to advance.

On the flip-side, we’ve seen Federer this week lose leads that he should have kept, and struggle with opponents that he once would have rolled. The Federer of 2010 has been much more generous in handing out losses than in years past, and Berdych has been one of the lucky recipients to cash in on the Swiss’ donations.

However, there is no question that Federer doesn’t want to lose to Berdych for a third straight time. Pride does mean something to former No. 1, and his priority to set the tone for the upcoming US Open is also on the line. I do feel, though, that Federer has handed an insurmountable level of confidence to Berdych that he won’t be able to take back.

Berdych knows what it takes to pull through and defeat Federer, and achieving it for a third straight time won’t hold the same doubt that it did at Wimbledon. Berdych has played his share of big matches this year—against Federer no less—and Friday’s quarterfinal showdown will continue in the long line of big matches for the Czech.

There’s never been any secrets that Federer and Berdych haven’t liked each other. Federer blamed his Wimbledon loss on injury, while Berdych claimed that the Swiss was making excuses for his defeat.

To add further fire to the edgy rivalry, I overheard a fan telling Berdych on Thursday that he would love to see him defeat Federer for a third straight time. Walking straight past the spectator as he approached the tournament’s transportation, Berdych provided the fan with an autograph, while letting out a deep and condescending laugh of approval.

Federer will do his best to hold off the towering Czech, but based on current form and momentum, Berdych is clearly in the drivers seat.

Pick: Berdych in three sets.

Andy Murray vs. David Nalbandian

Nalbandian leads the pair’s head-to-head series 2-0.

Enjoying the best form of his career, Nalbandian has picked apart three formidable foes in reaching the final eight. The Argentine appears fitter than ever, and he’s also been “enjoying his time back on court” since his injury layoff. I’ve been impressed with Nalbandian’s point construction this week, but his return of serve has been his highlighted weapon. Employing his ability to inflict first strike tennis at its best, Nalbandian has gained the upper hand in his return games by knocking off penetrating returns.

Defeating seven players ranked inside the top 25 during his past 11 victories, Nalbandian will play a similar opponent in Murray during Friday’s afternoon session.

Both player favor their backhand wings, while relying on breaking serve more than holding their deliveries. Murray was definitely a little shaky in the second set of his win against Gael Monfils, but the Scot did prevail in a comfortable third set. Murray still appears to lack a killer shot, and that may cost him against the cunning Argentine.

There aren’t many instances on tour where Murray is considered the second smartest player on court, but that’s the role that he’ll take against Nalbandian. The Argentine is always in control of his court geometry, and very rarely allows his emotions to get the better of him. The same can not be said for Murray.

All in all, this one should be a great battle of the minds, and a contest ruled by the player who is willing to step up and not be passive. To me, Nalbandian has been that player this week, and that should continue against the defending champ.

Pick: Nalbandian in three sets.

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