Storylines from Montreal

The Canadian contingency:

Bruno Agostinelli, Frank Dancevic, Peter Polansky and Frederic Niemeyer found themselves wild-carded into the main draw of their home tournament, while the youngster Milos Raonic was the first Canadian man to fight through 2 qualifying matches and into the draw in 20 years.

First off, I was bitterly disappointed at the complete blowout issued to Dancevic by 7^th seed Gilles Simon.  Yes, Simon is the more accomplished player and played some inspired tennis in their first round encounter.  Still, Dancevic played the match with zero strategic consideration and was doomed from the very first point.  How else to explain his choice to stay back and trade groundstrokes against the Frenchman?  There was no way that Frank was going to win from the back of the court – either he was going to drown in a sea of unforced errors in the face of Simon’s defence, or he was going to be pushed off the court by Simon’s superior baseline attack.  After his impressive run in 2007 and upset win over Mario Ancic last year, the stinker of a match played by the Niagara Falls native is a bit of a head-scratcher.

On the other hand, the tight 2-setter between Davis Cup teammates Agostinelli and Polansky was an entertaining affair.  The former had been a hero for Team Canada just a few weeks prior filling in for the latter in the deciding match of a tie against Peru.  However, the higher ranked Polansky took care of business on Bank Nationale Court and booked himself a meeting with the 4^th player in the world, Novak Djokovic.  Unlike his compatriot Dancevic, Peter went into the match with a sound gameplan, peppering Novak’s shakier forehand wing and swinging freely until the very last point.  I see great upsides in his smooth baseline game and predict that he will qualify for the US Open, avenging his disheartening qualifying loss to German Simon Stadtler last fall in New York.

Frederic Niemeyer, in his last summer on tour, finally won a match in the main draw of the Rogers Cup, defeating Russian Igor Kunitsyn in front of an appreciative crowd on the BN Court.  Next up was the newly re-crowned world number one, Roger Federer.  It would be a great last hurrah for the crowd favorite, as he played up to his potential in a 7-6 6-4 loss.  I had the pleasure of meeting Fred at the US Open last year and have to say that he is one of the great guys in the game whose absence will be missed.  Like Roger, he is a new father and I certainly wish him and his family the very best.

The most impressive Canadian this year, in my eyes, was Milos Raonic.  I was not familiar with his game and was surprised to see him qualify for the tournament.  My doubts were quickly erased when I tuned in to his first round match against Fernando Gonzalez.  The 6’5” Raonic went toe-to-toe with one of the biggest hitters on tour and showed off his effortlessly explosive service motion, which left the Chilean searching for answers.  The young Canadian finally lost the match in 3 sets, but not before obtaining a match point in the second set tiebreak.  I do see some rough edges in his game, but the upsides in his powerful game simply cannot be ignored.  Look for big results from this young man in the next few years.

Pack it in, Marat

The enigmatic Russian has played his last match in Canada.  After sleepwalking through the first set and finding his game in the second, Marat found himself leading 2-0 in the decider before losing the next 6 games and the match against a rusty Gael Monfils.  He has openly discussed the loss of his love for the game, which leaves me wondering about his motivation for continuing to play tennis at the highest level.  Is he just so used to touring the world and seeing the same familiar faces in the locker room or does he actually believe he can make one last run at the Open before retirement?  I used to think that, with the clock ticking, he can finally let go of his perfectionist nature and hit the ball without tormenting himself after every error.  Yet, it has not happened.  On the contrary, Marat has admitted that the older you get, the more you choke.  I’ll be pulling for him, but it really doesn’t look good.

Federer and Nadal

After witnessing Roger’s collapse in the third set against Tsonga, I hate to admit that a part of his game is truly lost, never to return.  He’s still one of the best players ever to grace a tennis court as well as a living legend of the game.  However, he’s lost that genial ability to silence his conscious mind and hit fearlessly under the biggest of pressure.  What I saw in much of the match, but especially in the third set, was a man who played tentatively rather than letting his racket whip through the ball with reckless abandon.  Unlike the Wimbledon final, his serve was not there to bail him out this time.  At this stage of his career, he is no longer the irresistible force that he was in 2005 or 2006, but merely a very, very, very good player.  Despite this drop, or maybe because of it, Federer has impressed me mightily this year.  He knows what’s at stake and can no longer play the big points with abandon, yet has still managed to rewrite the record books.  I wouldn’t count him out at the Open, but it’s only going to get harder from here on in.  Maybe Marat’s right, after all.

In short, Nadal’s doing fine.  I doubt anyone can conjure up their best tennis with 4 popped blisters on their playing hand.  I like his chances in New York.

Deja Vu

We really have gone back in time.

Six years ago our two finalists met for the first time on the grass of SW19. One was a rising star with the biggest weapon in the game and a guaranteed path to stardom. The other was a wildly talented underachiever who punctuated brilliant wins with underwhelming losses. It would perhaps shock you to learn that the former was Andy Roddick, while the latter was Roger Federer. The underachiever in the Swiss died that day and a champion in him born, as he managed to summon all of his talent and glided through the encounter in three breathtakingly flawless sets. A few days later, he held up his first Grand Slam trophy on a day that would change tennis forever.

Five years ago our two finalists met for the second time on the grass of SW19. This time Roddick was the underdog, storming into the final with nothing to lose and everything to gain. His play reflected that. The American rocketed down ace after ace, propelling himself to a 6-4 first set win. Then, the rain came and washed away his momentum. Recharged and refocused after the break, Federer shook off the expectations and nervousness of having to defend a Slam for the very first time. He got in touch once again with the Gift and seized the match by the ankle, never letting go until he clipped the line with an ace on match point. The Swiss then crumbled onto the grass and fell back until his head touched the ground and his eyes gazed into the heavens.

Four years ago our two finalists met for the last time on the grass of SW19. Federer was the undisputed King of Wimbledon and had the gold-incrusted sneakers to prove it. Roddick had a new coach in his corner and promised to throw more than the kitchen sink at the match this time. However this was not to be. Tamed by the Swiss’ shotmaking, the American meekly folded in straight sets. With other, younger threats looming in the distance, we thought the story had run its course. We were wrong.

Today they will meet again on the grass of SW19. Will it be history in the making, or a resurrection of a rivalry once believed long past its prime? The world is watching.

Turnin’ Back the Years

First off, sorry for you faithful Tennis Connected readers who were expecting the same daily coverage from me as in Roland Garros. I’ll be participating in a Open-level tournament in 2 weeks, so right now my time is pretty much split between practice matches, physical training and cooling off at the pool.

Quite a shocking turn of events, really. Looking at the Men’s Quarterfinal Draw, I cannot help but think that, somehow, we’ve gone back in time and ended up in 2004, when guys like Ferrero, Roddick, Hewitt, Haas and Federer were in the prime of their accomplished careers. Yet, 5 years later, they are alive and kicking in the second week of the Championships. Roddick’s bullet serve is deadlier than ever, while Hewitt seems to have recaptured the intensity which fueled his championship run here in 2002, recovering from a 2 set deficit and defeating the ever-tricky Radek Stepanek in 5 sets today.

Ferrero took out a fading Gilles Simon easily, hugging the baseline and playing anything but like a clay courter on the grass of SW19. Tommy Haas looked like he was on his way out in the 3rd round when Marin Cilic roared back from 2 sets to love down and went up in the deciding set, but the enigmatic German, a throwback with his full-natural gut string setup (as opposed to the polyester/gut hybrid preferred by most pros today) kept charging forward. With that victory he both avoided stumbling after gaining a 2 set lead (like he did against Gilles Muller last year at the US Open and against Federer a few weeks ago in Paris) and obtained his first quarterfinal showing at a Slam since 2007. And as for Federer, well, Roger’s become once again The Man.

Apart from a temporary lapse in judgment against the streaky Phillip Kohlschreiber, Federer has been absolutely money on clutch points, as demonstrated by his win over Soderling. With the score 5-4 on the Swede’s serve in the 3rd set tiebreak, Federer bunts back a heavy Soderling delivery and is pushed behind the baseline. Robin runs around his backhand and absolutely pummels a forehand which lands a foot inside both lines in Federer’s forehand corner. On the full gallop, the Swiss calmly draws his racquet back and answers with a forehand drive of his own. His frame whips up behind the ball and comes to a controlled stop right over his head.

Meanwhile, the ball rifles past Soderling’s outstretched arm crosscourt and kisses the far sideline. Who says you’re only young once?

Predictions:

Hewitt in 5
Murray in 3
Haas in 4
Federer in 5

French Open finals Prediction – Jack Han

Finals:

Roger Federer vs. Robin Soderling

Either way, somebody’s going to be in tears at Court Philippe Chatrier tomorrow afternoon. One can only begin to imagine the anxiety brewing deep inside the placid Swede as he prepares to contest his first ever Grand Slam final, or the world of pressure weighing on the Swiss, whose date with destiny tomorrow could crown him as not only the champion of the fortnight, but as the greatest man ever to pick up a tennis racket. The first prediction I can make is that, after the final point tomorrow, the floodgates of pent-up emotions will open up and make for one of the most memorable and dramatic trophy ceremonies in the history of the game. Many journalists and fans are already crowing Federer as the winner. But as they say, tennis is played on the court, not on paper. Let’s take a look at how the players match up:

Forehand: Tie

One thing I noticed while watching Federer’s semifinal match versus Del Potro, was that he could now be pushed around on the baseline against a power hitter. For much of the first 3 sets his forehands were landing slightly short and the Argentine was making him pay the price. Soderling is able to do much of the same with his forehand if he zones into the ball the same way as he did previously. However, Federer’s forehand can hit more angles and is more adept at hitting on the run. Most importantly, this is the shot that anchored all 13 of Federer’s championship runs. That’s got to be worth something.

Backhand: Tie

I tend to see Soderling’s backhand as his better wing. He does hit his forehand with more pop, but the funky backswing he uses also tends to cause timing problems when he’s not playing his best. Federer was not having the best time dealing with Del Potro’s backhand, which is fairly similar in terms of pace and heaviness as Soderlings. I definitely would not call his one-handed backhand a chronic liability on clay, but that shot has some inherent limitations that would make it hard for Federer to take the upper hand in a backhand to backhand rally against Soderling. What’s left to be seen is how effective his slice will be against the Swede and whether it will be able to throw Soderling off his game.

Serve: Tie

Federer has actually hit more aces than Soderling since the tournament started, but I believe that the Swede’s delivery is going to be harder to handle, which negates Federer’s stronger return. Still, both players will need to be extremely focused on serve throughout the match, as breaks will be relatively hard to come by, especially in the first couple of sets. Look for both of them to work the serve-forehand combo to shorten points and put their opponent on the back foot early in the rally.

Movement: Federer

Speaking of being on the back foot, I believe that Federer is a lot better equipped than Soderling to play counterpunching tennis tomorrow. He has superior ability to make spectacular shots on the run and, even more importantly in this case, to keep points alive in order to coax out an unforced error from his opponent. In addition, as long as he uses it judiciously, the drop shot will be a major weapon for him as the match goes on. I expect Soderling to jump on all over short balls in the early going, but when fatigue and loss of focus become factors, he’ll be hard pressed to cover all of Federer’s shots.

Intangibles: Federer

A record stay at world #1, 2 Australian Opens, 4 straight French Open finals, 5 Wimbledons; 5 US Opens. Federer’s superlative resume is not only a reflection of his incredibly precise game, but also of his unparalleled focus and mental strength. Most tennis players on this planet will have trouble staying in the moment and keep their eyes on the ball on an upcoming forehand put away in their weekly social match. Never mind when the world is bombarding you with questions about your next round, your next Slam and your place in tennis history. He has the shots, but Roger Federer can win on guts alone tomorrow. As I’ve said before, this has been a tournament of breakthroughs for him, but what does it mean to break through? To reach a revolutionary new level, one must first “break,” to bottom out and reach the absolute nadir of one’s confidence, to experience the most agonizing frustrations.

Federer’s career is no exception. Prone to outbursts as a young boy and discouraged from competing professionally by his father, he almost quit the game 2 years into his pro career; months before his match against Sampras on a Wimbledon center court he’d since made his second home. At the same tournament in 2003, his back was literally breaking under the pressure, with muscle spasms almost prompting him to quit after his 3^rd round match. Yet he persevered and lifted the first of his 13 Grand Slam trophies. Not one year goes by where Federer does not face his demons, whether injury, sickness or Rafael Nadal, and rise to a new level previously thought unattainable. His forehand may had lost some zip and his court coverage might not be as invincible as in the years prior, but that has only allowed the world to see his unmatched love for the game and his unrivaled drive for greatness.

Prediction: Federer in four; 4-6 7-6 6-2 6-1

Men’s Semi-Final French Open Predictions – Jack Han

 

Soderling v. Gonzalez

 Breakdown:

 Forehand:  Gonzalez

Soderling’s forehand has been cooking thus far, but Gonzo’s massive blast is by far the more proven quality on clay.  The Chilean hits with more margin and get better angles via running around his backhand and uncorking inside-out rockets from the doubles alley.  In a forehand to forehand
rally, maybe Gonzo will finally be able to expose the Swede’s extremely long backswing (one reason
why the slow clay actually helped him this fortnight), something Nadal and Davydenko were unable to exploit.

Backhand: Soderling

Soderling’s backhand is historically his more consistently solid shot, whereas Gonzo mostly prefers to bunt his back into the court in order to set up for a forehand. In a straight up hitting contest, Soderling will win 99 times out of 100.  However, Gonzalez is able to mix up the rhythm a bit more from his backhand with down he line slices and clever drop shots, something in which the Swede is not quite as well versed. Still, if Robin can key into the Gonzo backhand early in the rally and blast the ball deep into that corner, there isn’t much the Chilean can do to get himself back into the point.

Serve:  Tie

Both players can go big on their first serves to the tune of about 135MPH.  However, Soderling’s longer reach (6’5” vs. 6’1”) means that he can mash the serve more consistently and with greater ease than the Chilean.  In addition, even though Gonzo has a great first serve, his second serve is very much attackable, as he uses more of a slice serve than a heavy kick preferred by most top ATP
pros, including Soderling. HOWEVER, things can become very very different if the wind picks up on Friday at Stade Roland Garros.  Soderling has one of the highest service tosses I’ve ever seen, which would explain why he has historically done better at indoor events.  If the ball starts moving around on him mid-air, causing him to start missing his first serve, it could be enough to burst the bubble of invincibility he currently finds himself in.

 Return:  Tie

Neither players are known as great returners, but Gonzo is more prone to run around the backhand and really go after weak second serves.  On the other hand, by virtue of have a two-handed backhand; Soderling will be able to return difficult serves better without having to leave an attackable ball midcourt.

Movement and drop shots:  Gonzalez

Once again, neither player is known great movers.  When a power hitter is on his game, he simply does not have to do much defending on the court.  When push comes to shove, though, I’d give the edge to Gonzalez, who is a bit more nimble than his opponent.  In addition, having grown up on clay, Gonzo will be more at ease running down drop shots as well as using them to keep the ball out of Soderling’s high strikezone – you’ve got to think that’s a big part of his gameplan.

Intangibles:  Soderling

What’s to say here?  I mean Gonzalez has played super solid thus far, but pulling one of the great upsets in tennis and then destroying your next opponent has to do something for your confidence level, right?  On the other hand, I have a feeling that the always-fickle Parisian crowd will be cheering a little bit more for Gonzalez.  Then again, that is only a hunch.

Prediction:  I think Soderling will come out on fire to the tune of winning the first 2 sets.  It’ll be
up to Gonzo to hang in there as long as he can and perhaps allow exterior factors such as the weather and the crowd to affect Soderling’s concentration.  I’m going to go against the grain and say that he will do just that. 

Gonzalez in 5

 

Del Potro v. Federer

Breakdown:

Forehand: Federer

Del Potro was pretty much on fire today against Robredo and his forehand was a big part of his success. However, he’s up against, in my opinion, one of the greatest and flashiest shots of all time in the Federer forehand. Not only can Federer hit it just as hard, if not harder as the 6’6” Argentine, but he can really crank up the topspin and hit short angles than Del Potro just cannot hope to counter.  Even if Federer shanks a few balls, the best of 5 set format will allow him to loosen up, zone back into his swing and get the feel back on that wing.

Backhand: Tie

The only way for Del Potro to have a chance off the ground is for him to club every ball to the Federer backhand and hopes that it breaks down, as I feel his backhand is more solid than Federer’s.

However, this may not even be such a good idea, as the Federer slice can and will give the lanky Del Potro plenty of trouble. Against his type of players, Fed has a great safety shot, where he’ll slice the ball short and wide, forcing his opponent to either come to net on a difficult approach shot, or dump a safe shot into the middle of the court. Del Potro will try to punish those dipping shots, as he’ll have nothing to lose against Fed, but it’ll be a big ask for that approach to work in a best of 5 match.

Serve:  Federer

Until very recently, Del Potro’s serving has not been a prime weapon.  However he made that a
focus in the off season and his serve has been more of an asset in 2009.  Still, I am anxious to see
if whether his tossing arm will buckle under the pressure of his first ever semifinal showing at the French.  On the other hand, Federer’s first delivery is a known quality, and he has the very best second serve in the business to fall back on, just in case he is unable to continue serving in the high 60% range on his first serve.

Return:  Tie

It remains to be seen how aggressively Federer will be on the return.  He usually likes to play it safe and get the ball back into the court before working himself into a winning position.  Unless Del Potro is absolutely crushing every second ball, this could be enough for Fed. On the other hand, Del Potro is a lot keener at crushing the return of serve, but I wonder if he’ll make enough big returns to make that strategy worth while.  Giving Federer too many easyservice games by missing returns is bound to be disastrous for Del Potro on his own serve.

Movement and drop shots: Federer

No question, the Swiss is by far the best mover still left in the draw.  In addition, his well-publicized change of heart concerning the use of drop shots can only be bad news for a lumbering baseliner such as Del Potro.  If D-Pot does start the match on fire, crushing every ball in sight, Federer has the added option of moving him around the court in an effort to extinguish his game.

Intangibles:  Del Potro

It is possible that being so close to the finish line, Federer might start feeling the pressure a little bit.  In addition, the last time these two met in a Grand Slam match in Australia of this year, Del Potro only got 3 games and 2 bagels.  Let’s just say he can only do better this time.

Prediction:  Del Potro can ball, that’s for sure – just ask Tommy Robredo.  Federer better not
underestimate the gangly Argentine in this match as he will be ready to go on his favorite surface with
little to lose and a great deal to gain.  Look for him to take the first serve by a break.  Still, I feel that Roger has the tools to neutralize his younger and less experienced opponent to advance to his fourth
consecutive French Open final.  

Federer in 4

Jack Han’s Quarterfinal Predictions-Top Half

I got a bit sick of letting Dan and Nima have all the fun with their fearless predictions in the Podcast, so here are some of my own. I’ve got super solid evidence to back up my hunches (aka the Little Black Book in my head), so let’s have a look!

QF Bottom Half

Del Potro v. Robredo

JLBB: As Nima said in his Day 9 review, the only thing Robredo does better than Del Potro is move. No matter how you look at it, if Del Potro zones into the ball and start cranking ground strokes, the lone remaining member of the Spanish armada will be sunk. Robredo is a wily veteran and has the capacity to make some good shots, but it’s very unlikely that he’ll summon the same kind of genius Soderling has to take out the favored Argentine. Simply put, at 5’11” against 6’6,” this’ll be a battle of David vs. Goliath.

Prediction: Goliath in 3

Federer v. Monfils

JLBB: I am absolutely torn on this one. Strictly from a technical point of view, Federer has the edge on the serve, the forehand and the volley, whereas I give Monfils the nod on the backhand side and on his court coverage. However, this match will be determined by the big intangibles: mental fortitude and the French crowd, which may boost and challenge both players at once. We know that the Parisians absolutely LOVE Roger, but with Monfils on pace to equal Noah’s feat of winning his home grand slam, the way in which the crowd will lean is not so obvious. At the same time, the match is a total toss-up between the ears of both contestants. On one hand, Roger has dominated Monfils in previous encounters, which includes a 4 set SF win here last year. On the other, the absence of Nadal on the other side of the draw, as well as the way Monfils has been feeding off his supporter this year, could be the winning edge that Gael needs to pull the upset. Do read Nima’s article on why Federer will not be winning this one, but I have to stand behind my man, the greatest player of all time (at least in my opinion – flame away), the one and only, Roger Federer. This has been a tournament of breakthroughs for him, and if he can pull through there should be absolutely no doubt left about his place in the game’s history.

Prediction: Federer in 4

Third Round Predictions – Top Half

 

 

 

I got a bit sick of letting Dan and Nima have all the fun with their fearless predictions in the Podcast, so here are some of my own. I’ve got super solid evidence toback up my hunches (aka the Little Black Book in my head), so let’s have a look!

Nadal v. Hewitt:

Jack’s Little Black Book: Hewitt’s 2 biggest strengths, his retrieving skills and his topspin lob, are especially threatening neither on clay nor against a player like Nadal. If Hewitt decides to start retrieving Nadal to death, look for the Spaniard to step in and yank the Aussie around the court with his more powerful ground strokes.

Prediction: Nadal in 3

Soderling v. Ferrer:

JLBB: Soderling is mostly a fast court player, but his long backswings are actually quite adapted to the slow Parisian clay. He comes into this match quite a bit fresher than Ferrer, who needed 5 sets to eliminate Nicolas Kiefer. This match will be an interesting contrast in style, with Soderling looking to dictate play with big serves and flat groundstrokes, while Ferrer will be in full retriever mode. Whoever can manage to impose their will and style of play on their opponent will come out on top.

Prediction: Ferrer in 4

Davydenko v. Wawrinka

JLBB: Davydenko has not had blazing start to his French Open campaign, while Wawrinka romped through his second round after being pushed to 5 sets against Devilder in round 1. On the serve I give Wawrinka the nod, especially given recent trends. However, off the ground it is a bit too close to call, as I feel like both players are fairly equal in that regard–Wawrinka hits with more spin and angles while Davydenko’s one of the best in the business in taking the ball early and on the run. Tune in to this one if you can, it’s bound to be a barn burner.

Prediction: Wawrinka in 5

Almagro v. Verdasco

JLBB: Another mouth-watering draw here. I give Verdasco the edge in terms of serving and the lefty forehand-into-Almagro’s-one-handed-backhand matchup. Still, Almagro’s been so mentally unpredictable through the years that it’s hard to ever pen him in or count himout of a match. All in all, expect good shotmaking for 2 sets, before the wheels come off for the more volatile of the 2 Spaniards.

Prediction: Verdasco in 4

Murray v. Tipsarevic

JLBB: Neither guysare typical clay courters, as they both prefer to stand in closer to the baseline and trade flatter groundstrokes. Tipsarevic comes in with a good deal of confidence, having disposed of
favored Spaniard Feliciano Lopez in his last match. Still, I can’t see him troubling Murray for more than a set of so as anything he can do, Andy can do better.

Prediction: Murray in 3

Stepanek v. Cilic

JLBB: Radek “The Worm” Stepanek is probably one of the trickiest characters in the draw. Cilic should have no problems handling hisflat groundstrokes off the baseline, but the Czech’s sneaky net rushes is bound to cause the inexperienced Croat some major headaches. True, Stepanek’s serve andvolley style is not a good fit for clay, but he is by far the best in the world at making it work on the surface (just ask Fed). This match is bound to be played on an outer court, where the faster conditions should favor Stepanek. No matter what happens, Cilic will have his hands full in this one.

Prediction: Stepanek in 4

Gonzalez v. Ouanna

JLBB: Ouanna made a believer out of me in the previous round when he took out Safin 10-8 in the 5th set. This match should be put on Upset Watch as I feel like he has what it takes to beat the again Chilean banger Fernando Gonzalez. Both players’ games are very similar. Off the ground, both prefer to take roundhouse swings off the forehand wing to cover for their jerky and inconsistent one-handed backhands. On the serve, both have heavy first serves but somewhat weak second deliveries. The main key here is whether Ouanna will be able to use his great athleticism to negate Gonzalez’s power at the baseline, or Gonzo will be able to attack Ouanna’s second serve and start using his forehand against the French upstart’s shaky backhand.

Prediction: Gonzalez in 5

Hanescu v. Simon

JLBB: On the one hand, Simon is probably the closest to a full-blown pusher as there is in the top 50. On the other, Hanescu has not made it this far in a slam since the summer of 2005. The big Romanian has a bit more power off the ground and especially on the serve, but I feel like a supportive home crowd on a stadium court will be enough to push Simon on to the next round.

Prediction: Simon in 4

Outer Court Report-French Open-Wednesday, May 27, 2009.

 

 

 

Our man Jack is back, to share his wisdom and insight into the sometimes overlooked world of outside court action that grand slams can provide.

The first rounds of a major tournament are by far my favorite time to watch tennis, not for the usual street muggings committed against lower-ranked pros occurring on the show courts, but for the intensely competitive brawls playing out on the outside courts. Unfortunately, the intriguing story lines developing there are most often ignored by mainstream tennis coverage. Here are some things that caught my attention thus far.

Day 4:

Not the most competitive day ever on the outer courts, as there were several complete beat downs issued today.

Stan Wawrinka took Nicolas Massu out in dominating fashion, hitting 11 aces and winning an amazing 94% of first serve points en route to a 6-1 6-1 6-2 win. From the times I’ve seen him play live, I’ve always felt that Stan’s serve is the least technically sound part of his game, as he does not use his legs to maximum effect. Still, his game is firing on all cylinders and I would not be surprised to see him around in the draw this time next week.

Fernando Verdasco only needed 2 more games than the Swiss to eliminate German, Phillip Petzschner, who took out Canadian Peter Polansky in the first round. I saw Petzschner play at last year’s US Open qualies and did not see him come over the ball on his backhand side for over an hour and a half, as he preferred to bunt the ball with slice or run around and hit a forehand. Not surprisingly, against a lefty such as Verdasco, that matchup is the recipe for disaster. The German was taken to the woodshed by Fernando in just over 1 hour.

Marin Cilic, Lleyton Hewitt (who is set to face Nadal next), Fernando Gonzalez, Victor Hanescu and Robin Soderling are also through in straight sets.

Talented youngster Ernests Gulbis fell to equally talented Nicolas Almagro in 4 tight sets. Gulbis, not a natural claycourter, would have had to serve extremely well to have a chance here and he did just that for most of the match. Unfortunately, Almagro outshone him in both the aces and first serve points won categories. After spitting 2 tiebreak sets, Almagro used his superior feel on clay to move through 6-7 7-6 6-3 6-2.

No five setters on the outer courts today, so I would like to name Safin v. Ouanna, which took place on Chatrier, the match of the day. The Russian did well to level the match at 2 sets all after dropping the first 2 sets in tiebreaks and even went up by a break early in the 5th set. For a moment, Bad Marat was finally taking a backseat to the Safin capable of popping aces down the middle like a Pez dispenser. Credit Ouanna however for not giving up and using his canon of a forehand to maximum effect. After breaking back, he had the Russian against the ropes for the remainder of the match. Serving first in the final set seemed to have benefited the Frenchman greatly, as Safin had to serve to stay in the match on four occasions, saving two match points in the process before finally being vanquished.

Day 3:

Ironically enough, conditions on day 3 changed dramatically, as rain caused the surface to play slower and heavier than in the previous days. This is only bad news for the serve and volleying #22 seed Mardy Fish, taking on Argentine Maximo Gonzalez. In the end, the latter prevailed in 4 tough sets 6-3 1-6 6-4 7-6. I thought Mardy played a reasonably solid match, with a +9 winners to unforced error
ratio, mirroring Gonzalez’s stats. However, the main difference today was the Argentine’s superior footwork on clay, which allowed him to work Fish around the court and only allow the American to win 26 of his 50 net approaches.

Another minor upset around the outside courts include Ukraine’s Sergiy Stakhovsky taking out Argentine Brian Dabul in 4 with the aid of superior serving (13 aces, 71% first serve points won) and solid net play (32 of 48). Dabul is a stereotypical South American clay courter hitting heavy lefty left from both his forehand and one-handed backhand, but Stakhovsky’s long reach and all-court savvy proved to be the winning formula on Court 4.

Always-dangerous Tommy Robredo showed no ill-feelings from being relegated to Court 6 for his match as he annihilated local boy Adrian Mannarino 6-2 6-1 6-2. Nothing much to say here, except that the young Frenchman, in his second Roland Garros, was totally overwhelmed on all areas of the court by the Spaniard.

His namesake from Germany, Tommy Haas, is also through, disposing of Romanian veteran Andrei Pavel in 3 easy sets. Haas backed up his first serve brilliantly today, winning 89% of first serve points while hitting 19 more winners than unforced errors. Keeping in mind that he won Memphis in 2006 without facing a break point in the entire tournament, one can very safely assume that the injury-prone Haas is playing with full confidence at the beginning of this fortnight.

Tennis Connected favorite Juan Monaco defeated comeback kid Marcos Baghdatis 6-3 6-2 6-4 in yet another setback for the Cypriot. Baghdatis simply did not serve well today (only 45% first serves in) and allowed Monaco to convert 6 of 11 break points. The result is by no means surprising, as Monaco is always a tough customer on clay and has had a good season, while Baghdatis is still searching for a way to climb back up the rankings. Still, I fully expected the match to go 4 or 5 sets rather
than end in straights.

Two Blue Ribbon-worthy 5 set matches took place on the outside courts today, as Viktor Troicki defeated journeyman Lukasz Kubot from Poland 3-6 6-3 6-4 6-7 6-3. Both men posted great numbers, hitting over 120 combined winners against only 56 unforced errors. Still, Troicki could only wish that he would’ve been able to put the 142th player in the world away sooner, as he squandred 15 out of 20 break point opportunities.

The other match of the day featured 2 familiar faces to Roland Garros faithfuls: 2002 champion Juan-Carlos Ferrero and ex semi-finalist Ivan Ljubicic. Both men have fallen off quite far from their top ranks, but the matchup is assuringly intriguing as both players’ styles contrasted nicely. Would the massive serve and smooth one-handed backhand of the Crotian help him prevail, or would Ferrero’s stinging forehand and explosive movement prove to be the difference? In the end, the Spaniard used his first serve (81% in) to set up his consistant baseline game better than Ljubicic was able to dictate play with his heavy serve-groundstroke combinations. More importantly, Ferrero managed to save 8 of 12 break points in a match where service breaks were hard to come by (8 combined).

Day 2:

I’d like to start off by saying I liked the way Federer was hitting his forehand today. His match against Martin was very tidy and it seems to me that the conditions are allowing him to get a few more free points on his serve than usual, which will be key later in the tournament.

The match of the day, which ended just before 9pm and right as the Parisian sun was setting, was contested between Russia’s Igor Andreev, always a dangerous dark horse contenter on clay, and Italian Fabio Fognini, who’s having an excellent run on the red stuff this year. The numbers were not exactly pretty in this match, as both combined to make exactly 100 unforced errors, 41 more than their combined winners. Still, it exemplified the rough-and-tumble action occurring on the side courts in the early rounds of a Slam. This match was truly a 5 act play, as Fognini ran away with the first set 6-1, which brought Andreev to attention. The latter won the next 2 sets surrendering only 4 games, as he worked his heavy serve-forehand combination to perfection, while Fognini was on a bit of a walkabout, using the drop shot frequently and foolishly. Serving at 2-0 in the fourth set, Andreev seemingly had his unfocused adversary in the sleeper hold. Yet, he carelessly drops serve and then miss a few easy sitters to allow Fognini to sneak the set out 6-3. The 5th set begins with 4 straight service holds. In the fourth game, Andreev saves a break point with a trademark runaround forehand, before calling the trainer to fix something with his right contact lens. He genuinely did seem to be having trouble with either a grain of dust in his eye or a misplacement of the lens, but I found this to be a great piece of gamesmanship which could turn the dynamics of the match in the Russian veteran’s favor. Not to be outdone, the Italian also calls for the trainer 2 games later to get his back rubbed down, which left the crowd bemused. Still, the atmosphere of the match was terrific, with the spectators in the packed stands joining each other in a series of waves (conversely, Chatrier Court was nearly deserted by that time, with only a few hundred tennis fans kept far from the action by the patches of private boxes in the lower sections). Finally, after taking care of his serve so handily for most of the last 2 sets, Fogini goes down 0-40 on his 5th service game and concedes the break. After serving the match out 6-4 with an ace, Andreev raises his tired arms to the sky, before throwing 2 towels and all of his used shirts to excited female fans in the crowd.

Day 1:

After Sunday’s play, internet forums lit up with concern about this year’s surface playing like “red grass” due to its seemingly quicker bounce, prime example cited being Hewitt’s win over Ivo Karlovic, where the latter struck a record 55 aces on supposedly the slowest surface of any Grand Slam.

I personally have mixed feelings about that point of view, as Karlovic has so much angle available to on the serve due to his size, that Hewitt would have a hard time getting his racket on the ball no matter on what surface they play on. Dr. Ivo is just as liable to ace Lleyton down the middle, out wide or even bounce the right straight over the Aussie’s head, especially on clay.

On the other hand, I did notice a much higher winner-to-unforced error ratio than in most other clay court tournaments, especially on the outer courts. Prime examples being Gulbis v. Querrey (Court 2). The Latvian won hitting 65 winners against only 23 unforced errors while the American managed 34 against only 18 UEs, very respectable numbers on clay and especially in a losing effort. On court 7, shockingly, American Robert Kendrick won a tight 5 set match against German Daniel Brands with 35 aces, 85 total winners and only 34 unforced errors. The man best known for pushing Rafael Nadal to the very brink in the second round of Wimbledon in 2006 wins his first ever main draw match at the French.

Interestingly, Brands, a fellow big server, also posted great numbers with 22 aces, 60 winners and 47 unforced errors. This is not to say that Roland Garros is about to turn into a serve fest like at Wimbledon in the mid-90s, but I am definitely keeping an eye out for any sort of a trend.

Taming the Clay Monster

Taming the Clay Monster: Who (else) can end Nadal’s reign?

28-0. This is Rafael Nadal’s lifetime record at the French Open. Since setting foot at Rolland Garros in 2005 he has yet to drop a match at the most physically grueling Slam out of the four majors. Will he tie Borg and make it five in the row this year? Odds (and bookmakers) will be on his side. There will be the usual suspects: Federer, Murray, Djokovic and Del Potro. However, let’s take a look at some other possibilities, however improbable they are:

Stanislas Wawrinka -
The other Swiss man with the smooth one-handed backhand, Wawrinka had a great 2008 season punctured by his first trip into the top-10. He does not have any atomic-grade weapons to bludgeon his way past the world #1, but Nadal’s kicking topspin will not work as well against Stan’s backhand, his best shot. In addition, clay is by far his favorite surface. Upset Meter (out of 5): ***

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga –
At the Australian Open in 2008, relative unknown Tsonga capped off a blistering run to the final by destroying Nadal in the semifinals. The Frenchman’s motivation will be at its fullest performing in front of his home crowd, but will his powerful game stand up to the pressure and Nadal’s fearless retrieving for five sets? Upset Meter: **

Andy Roddick –
Just kidding

Igor Andreev –
Interesting tidbit, before Federer ended Nadal’s historic clay court winning streak in the 2007 Hamburg Masters Final, Andreev was the last man to best Rafa on the red stuff. If you watched the heart-stopping five set marathon between the Valencia-trained Russian and Federer at last year’s US Open, you would know that Andreev possesses a cannon of a Western forehand not unlike Nadal’s. However, his shaky backhand and average movement makes his game very much exploitable. Upset Meter: *

Guillermo Coria –
This one is a real longshot, as Coria has not done much on Tour since his heart-wrenching loss against Gaston Gaudio in 2004. Still, El Mago could have what it takes to surprise Nadal for 3 sets in an early round, where they have the best chance of meeting.
Upset Meter: ****

Injury –
With all that being said, almost no player on Earth has the game to beat a fully healthy Nadal on clay in a best-of-five match (he’s never lost one, either). Still, the grinding style Rafa prefers will put his knees, ankles and feet to the test. He missed the 2004 tournament due to an almost career-ending stress fracture in his foot, and catching him below 100% fit will be anyone’s best chance at dethroning Nadal at the French
Upset Meter: *****

 

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