US Open Day 11 Upset Alerts: An Abstract Look
September 6, 2012 · Print This Article
by: Jack Han
If you are familiar with the book “Moneyball,” then you probably realize that there is more than meets the eye when watching sports. In the case of baseball, some players are grossly overvalued given the traditional statistical metrics used by managers and fans, while others were consistently overlooked at because they didn’t look the part or fit the mold of what a good ballplayer should play like. In the late 1970’s, a man by the name of Bill James began to fight against this injustice of sorts with an annual volume called “Baseball Abtract,” which showcased statistics not available anywhere else, and which gave these numbers “the power of language” and used them to describe why some teams win more often than others.
In tennis, until very recently, fans and journalists tend to measure the size of an upset with numbers which may or may not paint an accurate picture of what is really happening on the court. Now, however, we have our own tennis equivalent of Bill James: a guy by the name of Jeff Sackmann, who runs a Spartan-looking website called tennisabstract.com. If you’ve ever found statistics at the ATP’s official site lacking, head over to the site and check it out.
If you want to read about Jeff’s story more in detail, and read over HIS analysis of pro tennis, head to his blog (heavytopspin.com). What I will be doing is simply pulling up some note-worthy matches each day and analyzing the underdog’s chances with the tools provided to us by Jeff via Tennis Abstract.
Recap
A 3-2 record yesterday doesn’t seem so bad, but I backed the wrong winner in the 2 most compelling matches of the day.
First, Roddick went down in 4 sets against Del Potro. Perhaps coming back and playing the day session after the rain cancellation two nights ago might have sapped him of some energy.
1) 3 out of the 4 sets played lasted over 50 minutes, which definitely worked in the advantage of the younger, fitter Argentine.
2) Roddick actually only won 47% of rallies with 2 shots or less, even though his game plan was to work the serve-forehand combo and try to keep his inferior movement and backhand out of the equation.
Enough talk about stats now. Here I’d like to take the chance to salute Andy on a great career, and for having shown us the virtues of always giving your best effort and not being afraid to risk temporary setback in order to improve your game.
Second, I expected Federer to escape in 5 sets against Berdych, but the Czech was just too solid off the ground and polished off the Swiss in 4. The key stat to retain is Federer’s 71% first serve winning percentage – a full 7% lower than the magic number I identified yesterday. Over the course of the match, that translated to 5 more points lost on the Federer service game. Federer won 106 points, while Berdych won 119. Had Federer served at 78%, the points won category would read 111-114, and the match probably would have gone 5 sets. Remember, the last time the pair played 5 sets was in Australia in 2009, where Federer came back from 2 sets down to win in 5. Alas, it was not to be. So, Berdych moves onto the semis, while Roger gets some more family time with Mirka and the kids.
Day 11 Predictions
(2) Djokovic vs (7) Del Potro
Current Ranking:
Djokovic: 2
Del Potro: 8
JRank Hard Court Ranking (adjusted for opponent quality and recent results):
Djokovic: 1
Del Potro: 5
Upset potential: **
Djokovic leads the head-to-head comfortably at 5-2. One of his two losses at the hands of Delpo came at the end of his successful yet draining 2011 campaign, where he retired a set and a break down in Davis Cup. The other loss occurred during the bronze medal match of the London Olympics just a few weeks ago. In that match, he broke Del Potro exactly zero times despite holding 6 break points (conversely, Delpo went 2 for 4 on break points against the Djokovic serve). The fast conditions might’ve helped Del Potro’s second serve (he doesn’t go for much on it despite being a big guy, and is content to spin his second serve in just to get into a rally) – he won a massive 69% of second serve points. This contrasts starkly with the same stat from his previous matches against the Serb – he has never won more than 52% of second serve points in other matches against the best returner in the game. Because Djokovic is the best in the world at absorbing and returning pace, Del Potro will need to have a great serving day and be mindful of what he does with his second delivery. If he can win more than 60% of the time he goes to the second serve, then he has a chance to cause a scare. Unfortunately, despite not playing against great returner up to now, he has only cracked the 60% mark once, in his first round win against journeyman Florent Serra.
Prediction: Djokovic in 3 sets, 7-5 6-4 6-4
(8) Tipsarevic vs (4) Ferrer
Current Ranking:
Tipsarevic: 9
Ferrer: 5
JRank Hard Court Ranking (adjusted for opponent quality and recent results):
Tipsarevic: 13
Ferrer: 6
Upset potential: **
Tipsy and Ferrer have not faced off since the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Back then, Ferrer was already in the ATP top 5, while Tipsarevic was plodding along at #46 in the world. On that day, the underdog Serb won a hotly contested match (2:09 total duration) in straight sets, 7-6 6-2. He only faced 2 break points (saving one) while generating a whopping 13 break chances on his opponent’s serve. This is not too surprising as Tipsarevic has a very good serve for a smaller guy, while Ferrer’s hold game is hugely dependant on how well he grinds after spinning a serve in (despite winning in straight sets against Gasquet in his last match, he had more double-faults than aces and only put 47% of first serves in the box). However, the biggest question in this match is “who will break down first?” – will it be Tipsarevic’s ground strokes, or Ferrer’s movement? Tipsarevic will want to control points with his powerful ground strokes from the middle of the court, but will Ferrer’s retrieving skills and excellent ability to hit on the run be too much to handle over 5 sets? In most sports, it’s easier to disrupt with foot speed and defense, then to create by taking risks and going for big shots. The same is true in tennis, so I like Ferrer’s chances.
Prediction: Ferrer in 4 sets, 6-3 4-6 6-2 6-2
*****
About the Author: Jack Han is a business lecturer, entrepreneur, 4.5 level player and occasional tennis writer living in Montreal, Canada. Check out his personal blog at bcomconfidential.wordpress.com.
Follow him on Twitter at @KSplayersClub or on Instagram @SoireeCulturelle
Comments
Got something to say?